There's no indicator of a hard cap in the client or the official hextech crafting page and conflicting information from Reds on the subject, there's no timer available in the client so people don't know when their deadline for key drops occurs.
I have to agree on this part.
It would help a lot if the key cycle reset is timed, just like chests. It should add clarity to the system and Riot can be upfront on how much a player can expect from the system, if all those numbers are present. Granted, there will always be people who would come here and say "it's not enough, i want more free things" but that's something that can't be addressed easily. Both Riot and us players have to find that sweet spot.
This transparency might take away some people from the game until their key timer refreshes (because they don't want to grind a few fragments forever) but if those people only play for loot and not because they enjoy the game, i think this can be a fair price to pay for having less frustrated or uninterested players in the game at some points in time.
At least, that's how it would appear to me.
a player should be able to make up for getting less than 4 keys earned in a month through effort in future months.
I'm still not convinced in this statement.
I just don't see why Riot should allow players to make up for the lost time. You can't really request to queue up your "would be" drops so that it all waits for you when you are ready to grind them out in a timely fashion.
One way i could see this system being somewhat more casual player friendly, is if Riot implemented something like "first win of the day" for keys. Like, if people didn't log in for a month, they get a 1 fragment per win (for 6 wins - all numbers are arbitrary). But the catch is that the next 6 fragment drop chances are slightly lower, to prevent people from farming easy 12 fragments. It should be a a small boon for players who were away for a longer time, without allowing min/maxers to take advantage of the system for the easier fragment farms.
The current system is the one where players eventually get to the point where they have dramatically reduced incentive to continue playing League during the current month as key drops eventually completely run out.
Let's be honest here, if people play this game because they force themselves to "enjoy" it only for the loot, i don't really see the point in giving those players more free loot, in order to force them to play more. I don't want a player who never tries to play his best in my games as that makes for a very poor experience. How are skins even making them happier if their interest in the game has waned already?
It's the same thing if you're working a job you absolutely hate but the only incentive for you to get to work is because the pay is good. So you put up with the shit and unhappiness, until it all goes to hell and you break apart, often taking it out on the people who never deserved it. In League, this behavior is punished and those punishments take away all your rewards and loot until the yellow card from your account has faded away. And you never get that loot back, it has been permanently confiscated as a punishment.
1 opened box per week is too much? chests still cap the amount of loot attainable without spending money no matter how many keys are earned and that rate still feels ridiculously low.
No, one box per week looks good to me. Especially when the loot is completely random, you can get that Soulstealer skin or an Ultimate skin, completely making it worth for you in just one lucky chest. That's the idea behind the system.
Both the chests and keys are required for the system to work.
Which means that having an abundance of one resource and a complete lack of other is equally bad as having none. However, if you're getting those S ranks for chests, you should be winning games. And if you're winning games, you should be getting key fragments. Both parts of the equation work off each other so you're really not able to say "one part of the system is incredibly easy to acquire and the other part, practically impossible".