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How i would make ranked if i was riot

Th3 Rift Hero··1 votes·871 views

  1. A variation of elo matchmaking but taking in account invidual performance inside a team, and a more rewarding ranked, let me explain : every players would start at 1200, nothing new there with a basis k variation of 20 ( something similar to lp), a win would be ''player elo''+k*(1-prediction) and a lose would be "player elo"+k*(0-prediction)...

  2. Prediction would be calculated like this : 1/[1+[10exp(("team a elo'' - "team b elo''))/400]], well something probably similar than the current matchmaking, but then...

  3. k would vary each game depending on how well the player did compared to the playerbase in his tier for his champ in the role, 50% being the average, gaining +1 or losing -1 to his value for each 4% of variation on all variables averaged to a percent score , the variables calculated being :

  4. kda(death in teamfights and executions being worth 0,5), cs score(not calculated for supports), enemy laner cs deficit, contribution to objectives (calculating damages from the lanes minions to the enemy turret), cc effects applied, vision placed, vision denied, win or lose of the lane according to matchup ( for example, if 80% win lane, count 70% if you win and 30% if you lose), here some additional rules :

  5. A teamfight is counted if at least 3 players of a team gather in the same spot and fighters and tanks gain an additional variable for damage done vs taken by the team when there is a teamfight going on. Also a minimal ping would be needed for ranked. Now here's an additional variation on k:

  6. Win and lose streaks would change the value of k but this would be easily movable to prevent tanking, here some examples of k increase and decreases according to match history, max values being +11/-29 or -11/+29 :

+20 +21 +22 -18 +22 -18 +22 -18 -19 +21 +22 +23

+11 -29 +11 -29 -29 +11 +12 -28 +12 -28 +12 +13 -27

  1. In placements k would be different and win streak/lose streaks wouldn't have an impact, i would also do season start placements and mid-season placements, the second having less impact (oh also, it would go with the elo you had when you last played ranked, no resets), here's the k values for each 10 games in order

season start placements : 300 150 145 130 115 100 85 70 55 40 mid-season placements : 150 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35

and then k reset at 20 without impact of earlier win or lose streaks

  1. I would remove the fact that tiers are divided by 5, these would just be in higher number and a little bit smaller in elo margin, each would be worth 149 elo and this would be some kind of lp without promos and demotion shielding, each would give a different border with the percentile of the player toward the tier playerbase (even the lowest) and a different victorious skin ( highest elo would also get the skins of lowest tiers) herse how i would divide this :

wood : 1-150 stone : 151-300 copper : 301-450 bronze : 451-600 iron : 601-750 steel : 751-900 silver : 901-1050 electrum : 1051-1200 gold : 1201-1350 platinum : 1351-1500 crystal : 1501-1650 emerald : 1651-1800 sapphire : 1801-1950 ruby : 1951-2100 diamond : 2101-2250 legend : 2251+

oh and yeah, fuck the decay ;)

I know i should work at rito xd

40 Comments

CamilleRule342 votes

Im actually fond of this.

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

Im actually fond of this.

yup that would be awesome i just taken so time to think about what is unfun in ranked and could be improved did the math and i'm surprised with the idea ive got

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

sooo i guess no one is answering because my article is too deep in complexity xd

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

can the downvoters explain their point? :o

GankedByWindows1 votes

I can't speak for others, but I'd bet that its because this has been beaten to death again and again. You can't have a rank system that trys to account for individual performance because the system can and will be gamed. Sometimes the best decision is to go in and suicide as a tank. You only get one assist, but your team got a 5 for 1 for it. Instead, the player that waited and engaged 5 seconds later and died but got 2 assists will be ranked higher even if your team got aced because of your suboptimal play.

That doesn't even start to touch the finer points, like how in your system scaling champions that naturally lose lane would automatically be at a disadvantage and wouldn't make any sense to play because they would have to play better than an equally skilled opponent playing a lane dominant champion because of this

enemy laner cs deficit

Or how some champions like Nautilus top could super game this:

cc effects applied

just by autoing every time grasp is up on melee top matchups. Not even counting E afterwards as well.

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

I can't speak for others, but I'd bet that its because this has been beaten to death again and again. You can't have a rank system that trys to account for individual performance because the system can and will be gamed. Sometimes the best decision is to go in and suicide as a tank. You only get one assist, but your team got a 5 for 1 for it. Instead, the player that waited and engaged 5 seconds later and died but got 2 assists will be ranked higher even if your team got aced because of your suboptimal play.

That doesn't even start to touch the finer points, like how in your system scaling champions that naturally lose lane would automatically be at a disadvantage and wouldn't make any sense to play because they would have to play better than an equally skilled opponent playing a lane dominant champion because of this

Or how some champions like Nautilus top could super game this:

just by autoing every time grasp is up on melee top matchups. Not even counting E afterwards as well.

btw such a system would be too complicated to abuse i think cause gains and losses would depend on a lot of unexplained factors but that would balance the ranks in some way

GankedByWindows1 votes

That isn't necessarily true. Look at games that have tried it. Eventually somebody stumbles on an exploit, it catches on, and forces a change. It doesn't have to be someone looking for an exploit. With a huge playerbase like league, somebody is going to find exploits constantly. What has to be true though is that creating the system must be extremely complicated not only in an attempt to prevent abuse, but also to attempt to accurately measure skill with all the factors you suggested.

depend on a lot of unexplained factors

That makes it a horrible system if your whole premise is to include a performance aspect to ranking. You're saying that players are going to be judged based on performance, but then don't tell them what they're judged on? That is like holding a talent contest and not giving any rules or expectations, then judging anyone who didn't sing an automatic 0/10 because you were only judging singing.

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

That isn't necessarily true. Look at games that have tried it. Eventually somebody stumbles on an exploit, it catches on, and forces a change. It doesn't have to be someone looking for an exploit. With a huge playerbase like league, somebody is going to find exploits constantly. What has to be true though is that creating the system must be extremely complicated not only in an attempt to prevent abuse, but also to attempt to accurately measure skill with all the factors you suggested.

That makes it a horrible system if your whole premise is to include a performance aspect to ranking. You're saying that players are going to be judged based on performance, but then don't tell them what they're judged on? That is like holding a talent contest and not giving any rules or expectations, then judging anyone who didn't sing an automatic 0/10 because you were only judging singing.

btw suicide in teamfight is counted in the formula by the fact that a death in teamfight is worth 0,5 and damage dealt/taken in teamfights is also counted for the tanks and fighters and also the stats are calculated for champion, role, tier with a matchup-based value for the win or lose of lane

GankedByWindows1 votes

Thats the point. 0.5 isn't worth more than them getting 2 kills and an assist but losing the game overall because of it. That is the key thing in MOBAs. You can extrapolate all you want from stats alone, but without context they're meaningless.

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

in most games i think that system would still work well, and also,it's not necessarily an extreme change for doing better than your rank invidually, the variation move between +12 and -12 and these are if you do a shitton better or worse than the average for your tier, my system would also count win and lose streaks in the elo variation with a limit of +/-11 and +/-29 with no tanking and in a faster way that the current system and there is no need to tell what is counted for doing the elo variations since it depend on a lot of things, i think players would just feel that their skill is most accurately calculated

GankedByWindows1 votes

I disagree that it would work well. It promotes selfish play. For example, why would I as Riven try to go into a 5v5 teamfight and definitely die but win it for my team if instead I can wait until my team dies, pick up 2 kills on low HP stragglers and back without dying?

In the end, League is a team game. The only thing that matters is the aggregate of all your skills in order to win the game. Statistics don't matter as much as the win. If you consistently have better performances than the people around you, then you will climb. This is proven again and again by both smurfs, and the entire existance of elo boosters.

Mysticman891 votes

Can you mathematically prove that your system will correctly sort players given enough games, and if so, can you prove it will do so in fewer games than the existing system?

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

Can you mathematically prove that your system will correctly sort players given enough games, and if so, can you prove it will do so in fewer games than the existing system?

how do you want me to prove it with no playtest of the system and what does correctly sorted mean for you, i can try something out, ill come back with it but maybe give me a hint on how to calculate this

Mysticman891 votes

Players are not all equally skilled, and matchmaking should try to match similarly skilled players together is the underlying idea behind these systems. The system has no way of knowing how skilled any given player is off the bat, which is why it takes many games for the system to figure out an appropriate model for that skill, i.e. mmr (or your version). Players would be sorted once their MMRs (or your version) no longer significantly change with more games played, and if the system works then the highest skill players would have the highest MMRs, and the least skilled would have the lowest.

You can dig through papers on the Elo System to try to get inspiration on how to formally mathematically prove it, but I certainly don't know how to do it, and it'd likely be a graduate level paper you could get published if you could show you had a system for correctly sorting players in a 5v5 moba.

For a more informal 'proof' you could run simulations. Something along the lines of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kB2UADNoRUA would probably be a reasonable starting point for how to design such simulations.

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

Players are not all equally skilled, and matchmaking should try to match similarly skilled players together is the underlying idea behind these systems. The system has no way of knowing how skilled any given player is off the bat, which is why it takes many games for the system to figure out an appropriate model for that skill, i.e. mmr (or your version). Players would be sorted once their MMRs (or your version) no longer significantly change with more games played, and if the system works then the highest skill players would have the highest MMRs, and the least skilled would have the lowest.

You can dig through papers on the Elo System to try to get inspiration on how to formally mathematically prove it, but I certainly don't know how to do it, and it'd likely be a graduate level paper you could get published if you could show you had a system for correctly sorting players in a 5v5 moba.

For a more informal 'proof' you could run simulations. Something along the lines of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kB2UADNoRUA would probably be a reasonable starting point for how to design such simulations.

ok i will try simulating it, btw my system is truly based on elo, i readed on it, i just changed the things a bit according to what i think would be the best for a 5v5 game but also i wanted my system to take improvement into account so my goal isn't forced 50% winrate in a rank ill do my best to see if it would be accurate tho

Mysticman891 votes

Ones intuition about what would be 'better' is a poor thing to invest thousands of manhours into building and maintaining, with associated financial costs.

Elo system and similar don't have forced 50% winrates, but rather thats a side effect of matchmaking working. If two equally skilled players face each other, why should one side win more than 50% of the time? And even if you have an answer for that, the premise is they're equally skilled, and hence whatever answer you give for one side also applies to the other side (which has a less than 50% winrate), which implies a contradiction.

In fact, if you can tell that over lots of games (say 10k) people (other than at the mmr extremes) have a winrate that is significantly different from 50%, then that would be proof that your system doesn't work better than the existing one.

ChargeItDownMid1 votes

[deleted]

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

well i dont really know how to us the api but you can look at the simulation ive done, it seems like working pretty well and like it is faster than the current system

ChargeItDownMid1 votes

[deleted]

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

i tested placement matchs using my system and games following them until the tier is accurate for the skill level of a player, since i can't really get a percentile score for tier values, i assumed a player having like 70% chances of winning a game would also play better than 70% of the players of the tier and the k increase or decrease for each 4% of difference is of 1. Maybe if you look at the legend games after placements you don't really see from where i got my numbers, in fact, it is really well thought since the probability of winning goes lower as the player is more near from his real elo as well as his skill variation, in these numbers, the consecutive wins of the players are counted and increase but at the same time his skill level get less different and it nullify the changes. Also, these stats could very well be hidden as we would maybe also remove grades for ranked if we use this. So, the casual player would not be likely to find an exploit in gains and losses since skill level would not be the only thing varying them, win streaks and lose streak would also change the values

ChargeItDownMid1 votes

[deleted]

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

It's only comparated for the role, champ and average for the tier the player is in, here's the best example i can give you

let's say for a silver player :

the average kda is 1,7, the player get 2 50 x2 /1,7, he's 59% better than the playerbase in silver with his champ in role so he score 59%

the average cs/min is 5, the player get 7 he get 70%

enemy laner has same cs, so the player get 50%

average damage dealt to objectives including damage dealt by lane minions is 5000, the player do 4000, he have 40%

average cc delivered in teamfights is 6, player get 4, he get 33 %

the average of wards in good spots is 5, player set 10, he get 100%, max possible

the average wards destroyed is 3, player destroy 5, he have 83%

75% of players of his tiers get tier 1 turret first in this matchup, he lose his turret first, so he score 25% cause difference between 50 and 75 is 25 and 50-25=25

let's do the average of all, it's 57,5% for each 4% you gain or lose +1 so the player would win 21 or lose -19 and then the win streaks modifier will be taken into account

ChargeItDownMid1 votes

[deleted]

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

Okay and how do you know for a fact that any of these numbers mean anything at all? What happens when someone is playing proxi singed? They will be bottom of the table in terms of kda, wards, and damage dealt to objectives and middle of the pack or below average in all of the other stats when compared to a standard singed build and depending on the patch, they can contribute more to their team winning than a standard singed build.

You have yet to show your formula is more accurate at assessing player skill than a straight mmr model.

it isnt needed to feed when you play proxy singed a good one won't

ChargeItDownMid1 votes

[deleted]

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

Still will be bottom of the charts in terms of the stats you provided unless they intentionally pad their stats.

the proxy singed would probably gain a lot of points from cs and damage to objectives since in my algorithm i calculate lane minion damage to turret and proxying the enemy turret will send a big wave of minions all in the face of the turret

ChargeItDownMid1 votes

[deleted]

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

Compared to a standard singed, a proxi singed will still have lower stats despite contributing more.

anyway whatever, if he win, he win and still get points maybe a little less than a standard singed but if he go on win streak he still will gain more and more points and the difference brought by skills score is not always extremely significant

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

So your system will be less accurate than a straight mmr unless he goes on a win streak. Why exactly would we adopt your system then?

if proxy singed is really better he could have an easy time winning consecutively and my win streaks are really more heavily weighted than in the current system since all consecutive wins add +1 to k, and maybe the difference between both singed wouldn't be as high as you expect, on my side, also, when i play singed, i prefer have a balanced one who both lane and proxy

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

look, its proven working mathematically

Mysticman891 votes

I see no mathematical proofs.

Also, if you were able to prove it in less than 24 hours with no prior knowledge of how to even begin, you should probably switch your focus to the various millennium prize problems, since you are probably one of the best mathematicians in the world. Still, if you submit your paper to arxiv or similar I'd probably give it a read, since the bar to submit there is super low and doesn't take terribly long compared to the more prestigious journals.

Alternatively, you're wrong and there's a mistake in your proof somewhere. Or even more likely, you don't actually know what a mathematical proof even is.

(Also for those who are interested in this sort of thing at an academic level https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.06253 does explore some more advanced methods of skill assessment which could be applied to matchmaking.)

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

I see no mathematical proofs.

Also, if you were able to prove it in less than 24 hours with no prior knowledge of how to even begin, you should probably switch your focus to the various millennium prize problems, since you are probably one of the best mathematicians in the world. Still, if you submit your paper to arxiv or similar I'd probably give it a read, since the bar to submit there is super low and doesn't take terribly long compared to the more prestigious journals.

Alternatively, you're wrong and there's a mistake in your proof somewhere. Or even more likely, you don't actually know what a mathematical proof even is.

(Also for those who are interested in this sort of thing at an academic level https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.06253 does explore some more advanced methods of skill assessment which could be applied to matchmaking.)

ill definitely give this a look

Unker1391 votes

Well thought out but you really don't want it. Any skill you factor will change the nature of the game.

KDA - individual kills will become more important and kill steals will dominate. Timing for last hit on champions will be a skill that defines a good player. Also how do you define it? 1/0/1 is a better ratio than 5/5/5 but who really did better?

Team fights - reward team fights and you may have a meta that has no laning phase players group up to maximize ranking points. Split push would go away becauae there is no individual benefit to breaking from the team fight.

The elo sytem is an estimate and will fluctuate in the short run and it cannot be avoided. 100 people in the same pool with the exact same skill (i.e. every match is a coin flip) will end up as much as 200 points apart in as few a 5 games. (Assuming the OP base k variation of 20 - I don't know the real base). I follow a P4 and a B4 and their estimated MMR are about 500 apart. It is normal to swing up or down a few level purely on luck of matchups.

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

{quoted}

Well thought out but you really don't want it. Any skill you factor will change the nature of the game.

KDA - individual kills will become more important and kill steals will dominate. Timing for last hit on champions will be a skill that defines a good player. Also how do you define it? 1/0/1 is a better ratio than 5/5/5 but who really did better?

Team fights - reward team fights and you may have a meta that has no laning phase players group up to maximize ranking points. Split push would go away becauae there is no individual benefit to breaking from the team fight.

The elo sytem is an estimate and will fluctuate in the short run and it cannot be avoided. 100 people in the same pool with the exact same skill (i.e. every match is a coin flip) will end up as much as 200 points apart in as few a 5 games. (Assuming the OP base k variation of 20 - I don't know the real base). I follow a P4 and a B4 and their estimated MMR are about 500 apart. It is normal to swing up or down a few level purely on luck of matchups.

also not only kda is counted the score impacting k is the average of all variables counted

Th3 Rift Hero1 votes

ok here's the result of my first simulation i tested win probabilities for deserved elo, rolled d100 for game outcomes assuming that matchmaking have a +0 difference and simulated until player reach his deserved tier taking in account the fact that he play to the same level as his win probability, so that's how it could go for really consistent players of different skill level, according to the results my ranking system seems really fast and accurate. I can test other things in simulation if you want:

deserved tier : wood (75)

1200 lose -312 888 lose -162 726 lose -157 569 lose -141 428 lose -124 304 lose -106 198 lose -88 110 lose -70 40 win +55 95 win +40

placed tier : wood (135)

perfect placement

deserved tier : steel (825)

1200 lose -310 890 lose -152 738 lose -142 596 win +137 733 win +118 851 lose -101 750 lose -83 667 win +75 742 win +57 799 lose -40 placed tier : iron (759)

perfect placement

deserved tier : crystal (1575)

1200 lose -291 909 win +161 1070 win +156 1226 win +139 1365 win +121 1486 win +103 1589 win +85 1674 win +67 1741 lose - 60 1681 lose -43

placed tier : crystal (1638)

perfect placement

deserved tier : legend (2325)

1200 win +312 1512 win +162 1674 win +157 1831 win +141 1972 win +127 2099 win +107 2206 lose -82 2124 win +78 2202 lose -52 2150 win +45

placed tier : diamond (2195)

2195 win +24 2219 win +24 2243 lose -17 2226 win +24 2250 win +24

legend (2274)

5 games to reach deserved tier

Mysticman891 votes

You didn't really go into any detail in how your simulation works, but it's pretty clearly wrong in that you're talking about single players, rather than a series of 5v5 games against players with similar ratings (which may or may not be representative of their skill).

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