Statistically, AD assassins are doing much better than AP assassins.

Koechophe··129 votes·8,012 views

Please hear me out before you downvote. This is primarily a statistical analysis, where I discuss rammifications at the end.

In terms of raw win rates (champion.gg), this is the order of assassins:

  1. Talon: 53%
  2. Shaco: 53%
  3. Rengar: 51%
  4. Zed: 51%
  5. Fizz: 51%
  6. Evelynn: 50%
  7. Katarina: 48%
  8. Kassadin: 47%
  9. Akali: 47%
  10. Ekko: 46%
  11. Leblanc: 46%
  12. Kha'zix: 46%

Average win rate for an AD Assassin: 51% Average win rate for an AP Assassin: 48%

But let's say you think general win rates are too specific, and you want to look at win rates from the most experienced players only.

  1. Rengar: 59%
  2. Zed: 57%
  3. Fizz: 57%
  4. Evelynn: 55%
  5. Talon: 54%
  6. Shaco: 54%
  7. Leblanc: 54%
  8. Katarina: 54%
  9. Kha'zix: 52%
  10. Akali: 52%
  11. Kassadin: 50%
  12. Ekko: 46%

Average win rate for AD assassins: 55% Average win rate for AP assassins: 52%

But let's say you don't like champion.gg statistics because you think they're too small a group size, and you want to look at win rates from Lolking's ranked section.

  1. Talon: 52%
  2. Rengar: 50%
  3. Zed: 50%
  4. Shaco: 50%
  5. Fizz: 50%
  6. Katarina: 48%
  7. Evelynn: 48%
  8. Ekko: 47%
  9. Kassadin: 47%
  10. Akali: 47%
  11. Leblanc: 45%
  12. Kha'zix: 45%

Average win ratio for AD assassins: 49% Average win ratio for AP assassins: 47%

Rundown AD assassins have higher win ratios across the board in every catagory. Of the five AD assassins, three are doing extremely well (Shaco, Rengar, Talon) one is doing average (Zed) and one is doing extremely poorly (Kha'Zix). Of the seven AP assassins, one is doing well (Fizz), one is doing average (Evelynn), four are doing poorly (Akali, Katarina, Kassadin, Leblanc) and one is doing extremely poorly (Ekko). On balance, AD assassins are doing fine in terms of win rate with the glaring exception of Khazix, while AP assassins are doing poorly in terms of win rate with the glaring exception of Fizz. Assassins also tend to have higherskill caps then regular champions, as manifested by substantially higher win rates by players who use them more often.

The conclusions I draw from this are: -AD assassins may need help, through means of a new item because their itemization is a little wonky, but on balance, AD assassins as a class don't need a class-wide buff; rather, Kha'zix is just doing poorly and needs a buff. Rengar is doing fine, Talon has always done fine, but due to him having a poor laning phase and a massive power spike afterwards, can feel a little unsatisfying. Shaco is doing much better due to his ability to secure Rift Herald, and over all less wards works well for him. Zed is about average, not overbearing, not underbearing, but as someone who doesn't play him, I don't know if he has feel issues or pacing issues. Kha'zix is just not doing well at all atm. -AP assassins do need help, maybe not through a new item, but in general. Fizz is doing fine, could actually be a bit overbearing right now and might need to be toned down. Eve feels like she's lacking in power, but statistically is doing well. Katarina, Akali, Ekko and Kass all have very feast or famine playstyles that tend to be a bit skewed in the risk to reward ratio, and also tend to rely more on opponents making mistakes than players having skill with them, resulting in them having lower win ratios. If anything, their patterns need to be changed to be less feast or famine, rather than raw buffs. Leblanc is statistically doing poorly, but has the perception of being strong by the community. Her skill cap is fine (in my opinion) but her skill floor seems to be too low. Ekko seems to be just too weak as an assassin, primarily because his burst pattern is situational and has so much utility that actual numbers are toned down.

Tl;DR AD assassins statistically do better than AP assassins. They don't need a new item because they aren't powerful enough, and the entire class shouldn't be catagorized by the one person who is doing poorly (Kha'Zix). They may need a new item because itemization for them is a bit unclear and wonky.

AP Assassins need help at the moment, because most of them have kits that are outdated and extremely feast or famine. Statistically, they are doing poorly, and a large portion of the AP assassin cast is largely unused.

The problems with the AP side might not be able to be solved by new itemization, but they are in need of work more than the AD side of things.

Thanks for reading.

154 Comments

Wînter Fox44 votes

OP is right, this needs to be fixed immediately. How are we supposed to have #LCSBigPlays if AD Assassins aren't at least 60+%?

Tails Doll7 votes

Thought the same, this cant be good for #LCSBigPlays.

DarthSpectrum8 votes

Your overall conclusion seems logical, but I think you need to take a look at more champions before analyzing these statistics.

For one, you did not mention Ahri and Diana in your pool of champions. Considering these these two have the highest win rates of AP assassins, at 53.07% and 51.46% respectively, it is a pretty big error on your part.

This omission skews your results, if they were on your list, they would take the place for #2 (Ahri) and #4 (Diana, after the addition of Ahri). Suddenly, the list is a lot more even. And that is not even considering that you missed Yasuo. Yes, he is also a fighter, but most players take him mid and play him like an assassin. Yasuo hovers at a consistent 45% win rate. He would have been ranked dead bottom on your list. Omitting him just make the AD assassins appear a lot stronger than they are.

Furthermore, your classification of "Assassins" is inconsistent. What criteria allows Eve, a jungle champion who often builds tank to be on the list, but not Lee Sin, who follows a similar itemization style? And should jungle champions even be considered in the list? AD champions generally have an easier time clearing camps, which leads to better win rates. If you are willing to consider that aspect on AD, isn't it unfair to also not list Xerath or Malzahar, who also technically is listed as an Assassin, to be on the side of AP? Sure, these champions have range, but that is one of the benefits of AP. They are both listed as assassins in their secondary role, and both of them have rather decent win rates.

As well, I think you need to elaborate more on the play rates of these champions. For example, almost 4 times as many players play Fizz compared to Talon. Win rate and play rate generally have a inverse correlation. You should consider the top 2 strongest AD assassins, Talon and Shaco, only have around 3% to 6% play rate respectively.

I am not dismissing your argument. It is undeniable that the BEST assassins right now are mostly AD. However, the situation isn't nearly as bad as you make it seem. Riot is releasing the new assassin dagger to compensate for the nerf to LW, which hurt AD assassins badly. AP assassins were hit just as hard with the increase in price of AP items, but the issue is that AP mages are extremely powerful right now. Any buff to AP assassins will put Annivia or Brand even more over the top. The same can be said for ADCs, but Riot stated that they would put restrictions on the new assassin dagger in necessary.

On a side note, you mentioned how AP assassins are adheres to a feast or famine playstyle. Well, you aren't wrong, but it is even more true for AD assassins. If Rengar falls behind, he can forget about 100-0ing the ADC in a full combo until late game. If Talon falls behind, the best he can do is provide some AOE damage before getting picked off by the enemy team. AP assassins generally come with good CC that can remain useful even if they do fall behind, granted not all of them do. The new item is design to specifically make AD assassins less "feast or famine."

I think your post would attract a lot more views if you increase the champions you analyze and go more in depth for problematic cases. But otherwise, good work, and sorry for the long response on my part. I would give you a potato, but I only have item 2010s.

Koechophe6 votes

I generally made my classifications of assassins based on what the kit is built around. Diana seems more of a bruiser simply because she has utility and defensive steroids, as does lee, and DIana is not even listed as an Assassin. Yasuo, likewise, doesn't have burst as much as sustained damage. Eve may build tank, but her kit is pure damage/mobility and her pattern is consistent with an assassin. Ahri, as well, fits into more of a mage pattern than assassin.. You're free to disagree with my interpretation, but that's how I make it.

The issue on feast and famine is that AD assassins inherently have better fallback patterns than AP ones. AD assassins can take towers much faster. AD assassins can control objectives better through means of sustained damage. AD assassins can split push, and generally have more dueling potential against tankier targes. AD assassins have more access to lifesteal and sustain. While AP assassins have some undeniable advantages (access to Zonyas, for one, as well as generally more mobility and CC) AD assassins as a class are able to be more reliable because being AD gives them certain strengths that AP champs don't get.

UB3R 1337 H4X3 votes

Well I wouldn't really count Ahri as an assassin anymore since the removal of the damage but on her charm makes her more of a kite-mage now and if you were to count all AP assassins there would also be Nid who is kinda in the gutter in terms of winrate and as far as Xerath and Malz are concerned, yes they are above average in winrate but that is because of their mage properties being strong at the moment, not the assassin ones.

Akali is SO HOT8 votes

Very interesting that the AP Assassin winrates are low considering this place QQs about them nonstop

TaoistMaster3 votes

to be fair..

Fizz most of the QQ is about this fish.

Akali is SO HOT2 votes

Akali is the most QQed about AP Assassin. Last season the QQ never ended until she was finally gutted for good and then it finally settled down a little bit

Handin Out Naps2 votes

For good reason though, her kit is kinda cancer. I haven't heard much ap assassin qq in awhile though other than Fizz. Mostly just Zed and Yasuo right now.

Abyssphere5 votes

[{quoted}](name=Avian Dreams,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=VlUnwXEa,comment-id=002c,timestamp=2015-12-24T00:26:05.764+0000)

  1. Leblanc: 45% http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1byxOQPo5d4/Vk1hgoV06pI/AAAAAAAAIYk/OgKotzZc-GQ/s1600/Gragas_9.jpg

I'm okay with this. http://www.leagueoflegendsskins.com/images/champions/splash/Gragas_6.jpg

Best use of Gragas splashes in a conversation that I've ever seen. +1

forist7 votes

You aren't considering play rate. So the statistics are painting a less than optimal picture. Most of those win rates are higher because of a smaller sample size of matches being played.

Baron of Bread43 votes

They included the section about only the most experienced of the players. Play rate should have little to no impact on that.

AMYS GRAVE4 votes

not true. Actually it does.

100 zed games with a 60 % win rate - 60 wins 40 losses 10 talon games with a 40% win rate - 4 wins 6 losses

64 wins to 46 losses is a 58% winrate for our AD assassins not a 50% win rate

(of course these numbers are made up by you get my point...)

EDIT: downvote me if you want but that's how math works. Stay in school kids.

OyddAWqJ5r4 votes

Okay obviously in the preseason there are way more than that. And when it's 100,000 Zed games vs 10,000 Talon games there's no difference in accuracy.

Irrelevant.

AMYS GRAVE4 votes

Irrelevant.

Sigh, i have to teach you math over the internet. Math is relevant. I'll look up their actual numbers from champion.gg.

Zed mid 51.47% across 67558 games

Talon mid 53.58% across 14880 games

( 51.47% + 53.58% ) /2 = wrong average = 52.525% win rate. < this is not correct becasue across 82438 games that means they would have won a combined 43300.5 games to achieve that.

How do you calculate the winrates for these two combined?

Number of Zed wins = 67558 * 0.5147 = 34787.5 wins

Number of Talon wins = 14880 * 0.5358 = 7972.7 wins

total wins for the two = 34787.5 + 7972.7 = 42760.2

total games for the two = 67558 + 14880 = 82438

Win rate for the two = 42760.2/82438 = 51.86%

51.8 does not equal 52.5. The play rates have to be used in order to accurately define the win ratios for AD mid laners in this way. Every AD mid laner has to be broken down (win rate * number of games) + (win rate * number of games) + ... /(total number of games for all of them) in order to get the right answer.

This is how math works. You cant add percentages and get a meaningful result.

OyddAWqJ5r2 votes

{quoted}

Sigh, i have to teach you math over the internet. Math is relevant. I'll look up their actual numbers from champion.gg.

How do you calculate the winrates for these two combined?

This is how math works. You cant add percentages and get a meaningful result.

Lmao, I have to teach you literature over the internet. I didn't say anything about their win rates combined and therefore play rates have nothing to do with it either. Why the hell you combining win rates? You silly af.

Try learning to read. That's how words work. You can't not read and expect to give a meaningful response lmao. What a fail attempt at condescension. Must be hard trying to look down at people above you.

Great basic math though. 10/10. Teach us more. Or don't. Cuz afterall it's completely irrelevant :)

AMYS GRAVE4 votes

And when it's 100,000 Zed games vs 10,000 Talon games there's no difference in accuracy.

Actually the statistical error in measurement is the square root of the number of games, so the play rate has everything to do with accuracy. This whole thread is about the winrate of AD midlane assassins so knowing how to properly add them is the whole point of the thread so it is of the utmost relevance.

What a fail attempt at condescension.

indeed.

Calabok6 votes

Buff Zombie fire mages.

BRAINSSSSS!!

Bladerunner77776 votes

As a kha'zix main I'm here to defend my champ.

Look at THIS:

http://imgur.com/if1QHCp

Kha'zix ISN'T BAD! There's a fine line between experienced kha'zix players and noob players (this week he's free so expect a lot of feeding). He isn't the hardest champion mechanically but the challenge comes from knowing how to get yourself fed and staying relevant when behind, which is more of a game-knowledge skill. I don't win every game, but I ALWAYS have kills equal to 50% of my deaths, at least.

STOP saying kha'zix is trash if you haven't had many games with him, because he does seem like trash for people just trying him. Kha'zix is fun and pretty good at what he's made to be: an opportunistic assassin that can also double as a clean-up assassin. The QoL buffs to him recently are very much appreciated, just don't overtune him because I would hate to see him be gutted again.

And yes, the 5 armor was an extremely helpful buff. That 5 armor is the difference between being forced to back after first clear or being healthy enough to gank at level 3 and potentially snowball the game.

Koechophe13 votes

I never once called Kha'Zix trash. I simply stated that he is, statistically, doing extremely poorly. The experienced win ratio for him his 52% compared to a base win rate of barely 44%. He is an incredibly difficult champion to play, and isn't rewarded sufficiently for that. is he playable? Absolutely. Is he in an ideal spot right now? No.

Bladerunner77772 votes

{quoted}

I never once called Kha'Zix trash. I simply stated that he is, statistically, doing extremely poorly. The experienced win ratio for him his 52% compared to a base win rate of barely 44%. He is an incredibly difficult champion to play, and isn't rewarded sufficiently for that. is he playable? Absolutely. Is he in an ideal spot right now? No.

I wasn't accusing you of anything, my reply was mostly directed to the people that play kha'zix 5-10 times and begin to complain that he's bad (a lot of people make threads about it).

btw there are buffs for him on the pbe (unevolved leap range increased by 100), so I say hide and watch.

The Soulforged2 votes

Of all buffs to give him, I'm not sure how much this will help his general use, and how much it'll help his snowball.

CorgiParade5 votes

Forgot about Ahri. 53% win rate and AP.

Koechophe31 votes

I didn't really consider Ahri to be an assassin, her kit has (it seems to me) more like a mage. But even adding her in isn't enough to offset the differences.

Z Statistic12 votes

And suddenly you see the reason why this is downvoted.

What about Riven? Are you saying she has no burst? What about xin'zhao? Pantheon? What about Annie?

How about the champions that are LABELLED as assassins like MasterYi Nidalee Nocturne that you didn't include?

Here's my favorite: what about assassins like Akali and Shaco that are frequently played in both AD and AP builds?

Your criteria for what are "assassins" are too subjective; it's clear you have an agenda to try to prove that AD assassins are doing much better than AP assassins.

euJHINius6 votes

He forgot 3 actual assassins. Everyone else you mentioned isn't primarily an assassin.

Koechophe6 votes

Which 3 are you referring to?

euJHINius3 votes

Yi, Nidalee, and Nocturne. The others he mentioned aren't labeled as primarily an assassin, and most of them choose not to follow that play type anyway.

J Eevo14 votes

Yi and Noc are completely diffrent breed - AA reliant, not combo reliant, not actually sure why they're labeled assassins (yeah they can delete someone fast, but so can a fed adc and those aren't assassins either). They're also played jungle and often opt into devourer which isn't really an option for something like zed or talon.

Nidalee's new playstyle fits an assassin to be fair, with a bit of a mage and support for good measure, but since she was shoved so hard towards the assassin playstyle with the 'on the hunt' change I'd say she fits

euJHINius2 votes

What makes Yi and Noc assassins are primarily their way of engaging. They have the ability to swoop in and delete champions. Yi is more of a chase kind of guy, while Noc is primarily going for picks or ganks.

J Eevo3 votes

They're still more mobile fighters than assassins - their damage while high is pretty consistent when in melee range of someone, and the assassin playstyle of diving in, unloading all of your skills to kill a squishy target, then going out doesn't really fit- even if they CAN do it, it's not their role, as they don't need to wait for cooldowns and can just stay and fight(well Kata can do that too, but that's just the stupid damn resets fault)

Look at it this way, if someone is building a team, where they're matched up against someone who in their team has a high value target (Kog'maw for example) or they just need someone to quickly remove their star player from the fray because their team is weak otherwise and they say: "Let's pick an assassin to do that" (of course counterpicking is a viable course of action too but let's assume they decide to just get an assassin) they will NOT pick Master Yi, and Nocturne to do that, they'll pick something like Zed or Talon to do that job.

Wînter Fox41 votes

Annie? ANNIE? Wow.

Burst =/= Assassin.

KANYE OBAMA GOD10 votes

I actually laughed when he mentioned Annie.

Koechophe19 votes

Riven, Xin and Panth are more bruiser than assassin. Annie isn't an assassin by any stretch of the imagination. Riot's lables on assassins are extremly skewed, because following them, I'd have to include Xerath too.

Shaco is played primarily AD. AP builds are considered barely viable and account for a percentage so low that it's statistically negligable. Akali is never played AD; at best she's played "hybrid" with gunblade, which even still is primarily AP and primarily magic damage.

Yuri By Mail1 votes

You either include them or you have a skewed data set and anyone with a remote understanding of High School Statistics can literally throw your analysis in the trash bin.

If they're labelled an assassin, they're an assassin in Rito's eyes.

Period.

Sozan521 votes

Don't forget that many of those are labeled as Assassin in secondary class only. If he should add every single one of them he would also need to add champions like Teemo, Tristana, Twitch, Vayne, Xerath, fucking Tryndamere, Jax and Irelia.

He should however add every primary assassin, which means he's still missing Nidalee, Nocturne and Yi - which would further prove his point, since Nidalee has one of the worst winrates in the game while Noc and Yi both have slightly above average winrates.

Koechophe7 votes

There's always debate over who is and isn't an assassin. I consider Nid to have too much focus on poke/utility to really be an assassin, and Yi/Noc to have too much consistent damage without a focus on bursting to be assassins as well. Anyone is free to disagree with this, but that's my assessment. Trusting riot's lables isn't ideal, considering they've now labled Mord as a marksman.

Loco Little1 votes

{quoted}

I didn't really consider Ahri to be an assassin, her kit has (it seems to me) more like a mage. But even adding her in isn't enough to offset the differences.

Ahri's kit is a weird mixture, she definitely has the mobility potential of an assasin, but in lane harass and poking is much better than one quick burst.

My Waifu Vanilla2 votes

I think after the removal of DFG and Charm damage boost she got pushed harder into the mage role simply because her burst for single target isn't quite at an "assassin" level, nor is it as reliable as someone like Zed/Talon or even LeBlanc/Fizz if you want an AP assassin comparison.

Keevalroy6 votes

She's not an assassin anymore. Riot wants her to be a mindless kite mage instead.

CorgiParade3 votes

Disagree

Keevalroy3 votes

You're free to, that's just what I saw out of the changes.

insaiyanbacca4 votes

interesting, tbh i have always thought ad assassins need better itemization but ap assassins have the tougher time balance wise. also i think the price increase of ap items hurt ap assassins pretty hard.

Pale Pirate1 votes

Excellent thread sir. I am a little surprised to see Ekko doing so bad, and I think that his low win-rate must have something to do with the preason ( no AP on sheen? Stormraider's surge baiting people into losing? ) .

Leblanc has always done statistically bad, as she is hard to master, and her playstyle tends to create greedy plays, with players forgetting about other objectives except kills. This playstyle also creates the illusion she is strong in average when she's not.

Koechophe4 votes

I agree that LB usually does bad in regular statistics because she's an extremely hard champion to play correctly (despite all of the posts to the contrary). However, she also usually maintains an experienced-player win rate of around 56% when she's balanced. She may be just a bit on the weak side, sitting at 54%, especially compared to the other assassins. I would say though that it's not that LB is specifically weak, just that the class was disproportionately hurt by the preseason changes.

AHeroNamedHawke1 votes

Gotta leave out the 45% win rate assassin and 55% win rate assassin to make it look good boys

Yasuo Ahri

J Eevo6 votes

That's a 'hypercarry' (as he's called by rito) and a mage.

The ability to do a high amount of damage doesn't make someone an assassin, every carry can do that, that's like saying Veigar is an assassin because he can pop mages by pressing R.

AHeroNamedHawke1 votes

[{quoted}](name=J Eevo,realm=EUNE,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=VlUnwXEa,comment-id=00140000,timestamp=2015-12-23T12:40:04.797+0000)

That's a 'hypercarry' (as he's called by rito) and a mage.

The ability to do a high amount of damage doesn't make someone an assassin, every carry can do that, that's like saying Veigar is an assassin because he can pop mages by pressing R.

Two extremely squishy, high mobility champions that do large amounts of burst damage and dive the backline in teamfights

What is an assassin then? Would you care to explain how Ahri's gameplay differs from Leblancs? That only difference between the two appears to be that LB is in melee range for about half a second, and Ahri takes 1 second longer to burst someone

How about Zed and Yasuo? Yasuo's damage comes from ulting on top of someone and then autoattacking them + Qs, while Zed's damage comes from ulting on top of someone and then EQing with a bunch of Youmuu's enhanced autoattacks

Why is Rengar up there? He autoattacks for his assassination too and builds crit, so it clearly doesnt count

Koechophe4 votes

Ahri's kit as AOE focus and team-wide pick potential, as well as poke and consistent damage over time.

LB's kit is straight damage for one target with mobility and minimal AOE, as well as longer cooldowns and more emphasis on burst.

Yasuo doesn't have burst; he has access to all of his damage all the time, considering his autos and Qs do more than his ult. Assassins need to have some concept of a burst pattern, not deal consistent damage.

Rengar uses Q + Q + W and E to assassinate. He has very clear burst and down time on it. If you're saying rengar isn't an assassin, you probably don't understand what an assassin is.

More from Gameplay

More by Koechophe