Let's talk winrate: correlationa and causation.

Pierce The Veal··2 votes·529 views

These days you'll look at lolking, op.gg, or champion.gg for winrates, and think "oh that champion is op" or "damn that champ is weak." You waddle over to a forum and, I guarantee you, at least a few people will comment saying that winrates mean "nothing". I am here to tell you why that is a wrong stance to take in statistics.

Firstly, every statistic indicates some sort of correlation. When doctors tell you that smokers are some percentage more likely to get lung cancer, it means that across a large population, there is a statistically significant increase in people who get lung cancer in smokers vs non smokers.

The laws of statistics don't change when it comes to League. When one champion wins more often than not across many games, there is a good indication that that champion is somehow strong, that is, that champion influences games positively in its player's favor to a certain extent. It might be because of itemization, masteries, runes, strength of other roles, or even the skill of its playerbase.

A 47% winrate doesn't necessarily indicate whether the champion is strong, but if the only statistic you have is that winrate, there's a good chance that champion is not doing well more often than not. If that same champion has 50% of its playerbase playing it for the first time and losing, then odds are there's a reason so many people want to play a champion despite not being good at it (namely the champion being strong). But if 90% of its playerbase has over 100 games on that champion, and even then they're doing badly, that is a VERY good indication that that champion is weak.

Now if a champion has a 55% winrate, and 95% of its playerbase mains that champion, that champion can't necessarily be deemed overpowered.

Winrate is a good indicator. It is not an end-all statistic, but nonetheless, it isn't useles.

9 Comments

1 800 MID LANE2 votes

THANK YOU!

There's more than one statistic that goes into deciding if a champ is too strong or not, but win rate is a very obvious one. Play rate, ban rate, and average games are all very helpful, also. Nonetheless, win rate is a very good indicator.

Pierce The Veal1 votes

{quoted}

THANK YOU!

There's more than one statistic that goes into deciding if a champ is too strong or not, but win rate is a very obvious one. Play rate, ban rate, and average games are all very helpful, also. Nonetheless, win rate is a very good indicator.

I find that ban rate is easy to influence in low elos though. But yes, it's also an important statistic that tells us what champions people don't want to play against, especially when we go into higher elo stats.

Toastey2 votes

This is all true, but balancing exclusively around winrate (even if number of games played is taken into account) and disregarding the exact reasons a champion is strong is a very flawed concept from a game design standpoint. The rules of game design apply to League as well as the laws of statistics. That is, balancing based purely on correlation and disregarding causation is heavily flawed. That's why some buffs and nerfs feel so out-of-the-blue and completely irrelevant to what the champions were experiencing in-game.

Winrate correlations should be the indicator that tells you which champions need attention, but it definitely shouldn't be treated as the very reason that they need to be rebalanced.

Pierce The Veal1 votes

[{quoted}](name=Toasted Pigeon,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=EjEUkL01,comment-id=0000,timestamp=2015-11-27T20:32:25.977+0000)

This is all true, but balancing exclusively around winrate (even if number of games played is taken into account) and disregarding the exact reasons a champion is strong is a very flawed concept from a game design standpoint. The rules of game design apply to League as well as the laws of statistics. That is, balancing based purely on correlation and disregarding causation is heavily flawed. That's why some buffs and nerfs feel so out-of-the-blue and completely irrelevant to what the champions were experiencing in-game.

Winrate correlations should be the indicator that tells you which champions need attention, but it definitely shouldn't be treated as the very reason that they need to be rebalanced.

EXACTLY! Have my upvote. As I said, it's a correlation, it doesn't tell us what makes the champion strong. For that we could look across item statistics and narrow the ranges to when that champion players certain matchups. Blindly throwing out a fix will hurt more than it fixes.

ThePartyLeader1 votes

I generally look at just diamond plus win rates. But win rate by itself isn't useless but can be misleading. I tend to explain it to people with examples like this.

If you were purchasing a desk on Craig's list and asked how big the desk was and the seller replied it's 5 feet long. You arrive at his house and he hauls out a bench 2 feet tall, 8 inches deep, and 5 feet long.

Pierce The Veal1 votes

{quoted}

I generally look at just diamond plus win rates. But win rate by itself isn't useless but can be misleading. I tend to explain it to people with examples like this.

If you were purchasing a desk on Craig's list and asked how big the desk was and the seller replied it's 5 feet long. You arrive at his house and he hauls out a bench 2 feet tall, 8 inches deep, and 5 feet long.

I'm gonna quote you on that haha.

I added an extra a to the title but I am on iPhone and can't edit. Sucks.

ChargeItDownMid1 votes

[deleted]

Pierce The Veal1 votes

{quoted}

The reason why people say winrate is useless is because it tends to have a weak correlation to champion strength. What is even worse, however, is that pretty much every website which presents winrates also presents pick/ban rates and pick/ban rates have always correlated extremely well with champion strength. As a result, win rates aren't useless in the sense that they don't matter, they are just useless in comparison to pick/ban rates which are often presented right next to winrates.

Winrate is a good indicator when paired with the other two. Ban rates and pick rates might be high, but if even the most experience players are only doing average or slightly well with a champ, then that champ is just popular. That is all.

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