Riot wants the upgrades to represent specific playstyles, but I think counterjungling is too occasional and opportunistic (esp. with the longer camp respawn times) to be something you can commit to all game. I don't think it could work as either a playstyle or a champion style.
I still think it could work as a machete upgrade if it was retooled into a focus on vision control - something that could keep track of the enemy jungler's movements. That's a niche that the other jungle items can't really fill.
It would be cool if Poacher's Knife, for example, granted vision around nearby jungle camps while Smite is off CD - even if you weren't going for the smite steal, you could see where the enemy is headed.
Also if they keep the Smite CDR I hope they change it to something other than 50%. 30 seconds is about just long enough that Smite wont be up for the next camp you take, but you will waste some of it while you walk to the next camp after that.