Boards›Gameplay

Can people really justify why win rates don't matter?

ApplyForAGrant··3 votes·2,933 views

A lot of champions like Zyra have consistently been in the top 10 win rates in the past season and yet still regarded as "weak", while Lee Sin is apparently overpowered being in the bottom 10. Every time win rate is being brought up, we always have those "know it alls" saying win rates dont matter, and they justify it with 4 utterly unconvincing claims:

  1. Underplayed champions have low sample size, so their win rates don't matter is untrue, because the win rate "number" you see on lolking chart is actually the win rate over the past 7 days. Even Urgot with 0.35% pick rate has ~5000 games over the past 7 days on NA server alone (lolking uses NA, EUW, EUNE, and BR data). That is a pretty good sample size if you ask me.

  2. Underplayed champions are only played by mains, while FOTM champions are played by mostly inexperienced players. This sounds logical except it is not backed up by statistics. Recent FOTMs such as Lissandra, Graves, and LeBlanc showed no change in their win rate over the past 2 months even though their pick/ban rate exploded. In addition, only a few of the underplayed champions (>5% pick rates) have win rates over 50%, so their "mains" aren't doing so hot apparently.

  3. Win rate doesn't matter because champions have different skill floors. This is true to some extent, but I don't think its sufficient to explain wider gaps in win rate. For example, is LeBlanc (46%) really that much harder to play than Ahri (51%) to have 5% lower win rate while being equally as strong? You have one less skillshot to land, and the only thing that makes LeBlanc more difficult is that you have to choose which skill to mimic. A lot of the highest win rate champions are mechanically intensive (Zyra, Vel'koz), while some of the lowest win rate champions are fairly faceroll (Jax, Tristana).

  4. Most players are in Silver and Bronze, and cannot play OP but mechanically intensive champions. This is again, not backed up by statistics. Lee Sin and LeBlanc have ~45% win rate in both Bronze and Diamond. Yasuo's win rate is actually 3% higher in Bronze than Diamond. In contrast, faceroll champions such as Akali, Ashe, Katarina, and Talon have much higher win rates in Diamond, even though they know that buying pink wards counters Akali and Kat ult can be interrupted.

The only explaination I can make about the win rate paradox is that solo que and competitive plays are two different games. In competitive play, ppl group much earlier to make picks and take objectives, so strong early game is more important (Lee Sin). Lane swaps can happen to avoid terrible laning phases that are unavoidable in solo que (Twitch). Champions are also picked for synergy with or counter to particular comps (Lulu). On the other hand, there are champions that have easily exploitable weaknesses in competitive play that are not exploited due to the chaos and selfish playstyle in solo que (Katarina, Akali, Fiddlesticks).

So win rates do matter for solo que, the game that YOU play in. While you have the freedom to play whoever you want, think twice about bandwagoning on any champion just because "its played in the LCS"!

tl;dr win rates do matter for solo que, the game that YOU play in, and all the "win rates dont matter" arguments can be easily refuted"

Referece
http://www.lolking.net/champions/
http://na.op.gg/statistics/champion/
http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/champions/stats/diamond/by-winrate

8 Comments

ModKnightsKemplar1 votes

I also think the gap between competitive and solo queue is not as wide as many people think... All champions benefit from the increased communication (and have a hard time when the opponent uses it). Some more than others, obviously, but I don't think they are as different as some people seem to believe.

But yes, I think you're right. People who think win rate doesn't matter are misunderstanding statistics, imo. Sometimes, there are hidden complexities (like higher win rates at higher elo), but Riot is aware of those and do what they can.

ApplyForAGrant1 votes

Some champions thrive more with lack of communication than others. For example, Katarina can 1v5 clean up a teamfight whether or not she is communicating without her team. However, if the enemy team is on voice chat they can quickly warn that Blitzcrank to press R when Katarina ults, making her useless. Without communication it is easy for Blitzcrank to forget about Katarina as he tunnel visions on hooking that adc.

xLegendary Troll1 votes

More people play Lee, which increases the chances of failing with him. The select few that use Zyra are good with her and manage to carry bot because she's their main. Many scrubs pick Lee sin and feed all of the lanes because they read somewhere in the forums that he's OP or think that he is, despite how incredibly difficult it is to use him.

ApplyForAGrant1 votes

{quoted}

  1. Underplayed champions are only played by mains, while FOTM champions are played by mostly inexperienced players. This sounds logical except it is not backed up by statistics. Recent FOTMs such as Lissandra, Graves, and LeBlanc showed no change in their win rate over the past 2 months even though their pick/ban rate exploded. In addition, only a few of the underplayed champions (>5% pick rates) have win rates over 50%, so their "mains" aren't doing so hot apparently.
  1. Win rate doesn't matter because champions have different skill floors. This is true to some extent, but I don't think its sufficient to explain wider gaps in win rate. For example, is LeBlanc (46%) really that much harder to play than Ahri (51%) to have 5% lower win rate while being equally as strong? You have one less skillshot to land, and the only thing that makes LeBlanc more difficult is that you have to choose which skill to mimic. A lot of the highest win rate champions are mechanically intensive (Zyra, Vel'koz), while some of the lowest win rate champions are fairly faceroll (Jax, Tristana).

Please learn to read thank you

ApplyForAGrant1 votes

People downvote me without being able to come up with convincing counter arguments. It seems that some people just can't handle in depth, logical discussion. Their limited brain capacity makes them unable to comprehend anything beyond "NERF LEE SIN SO OVERLOADED WHOA"

SmokingPuffin1 votes

I do think the list of top win rate champions is generally quite good for solo queue, even for high elo solo queue.

I conjecture that champions with a high win rate, but a low pick rate, are generally specialist counterpicks.

Consider Zyra. I believe she doesn't have a high pick rate because she has some really terrible matchups. You can't first pick Zyra, you're just asking to get Leona'd. However, if the opponent picks a more favorable support first, like say Nami, then you have every confidence in your chances to win the lane.

Kuroi861 votes

Win rate is only one aspect to look at. You also have to consider pick/ban rate. K/D/A DOES MATTER! How much healing a champion does. How much damage they do. Highest crits. Highest kill streak. Ect and so on. Win rate does matter, but only when put in perspective to MANY other numbers which we don't have access to, while Riot does. This is why I trust Riots decisions over any call made by players, they have access to numbers you don't, they see the picture YOU DON'T!

DrCyanide1 votes

{quoted}

#1. Underplayed champions have low sample size, so their win rates don't matter is untrue, because the win rate "number" you see on lolking chart is actually the win rate over the past 7 days. Even Urgot with 0.35% pick rate has ~5000 games over the past 7 days on NA server alone (lolking uses NA, EUW, EUNE, and BR data). That is a pretty good sample size if you ask me.

The problem with this is that it assumes a fairly limited number of variables. If you were doing something like your favorite primary color, then yes, 5000 responses would be a decent sample size. We have, what, 123 champions right now? That means (if I did my math right) there are 12,196,604,061,070 possible match ups where Urgot is involved. So in one week, one server covers less than one millionth of the possible match ups. That's still a small sample size!

Yes, some of those are going to be stupid comps, but they exist, and they effect the theoretical win rate of a champion. Keep in mind this is all assuming equally skilled players on both sides. As soon as you add factors like "Their ADC was better than ours, but our Mid was better than theirs" the numbers skyrocket again.

{quoted}

#2. Underplayed champions are only played by mains, while FOTM champions are played by mostly inexperienced players. This sounds logical except it is not backed up by statistics. Recent FOTMs such as Lissandra, Graves, and LeBlanc showed no change in their win rate over the past 2 months even though their pick/ban rate exploded. In addition, only a few of the underplayed champions (>5% pick rates) have win rates over 50%, so their "mains" aren't doing so hot apparently.

If win rate fluctuates depending on if a champion is in the free rotation (and it does), then it must be assumed that it will similarly fluctuate when a champion becomes flavor of the month. Not every person who picked up Graves in the last month is as good as those who picked him up six months ago. I'd like to point out that, from the links you've provided, none of them have the ability to show what the win rate was 2-6 months ago, so your "statistics" showing their win rates didn't change are your word only.

{quoted}

#3. Win rate doesn't matter because champions have different skill floors. This is true to some extent, but I don't think its sufficient to explain wider gaps in win rate. For example, is LeBlanc (46%) really that much harder to play than Ahri (51%) to have 5% lower win rate while being equally as strong? You have one less skillshot to land, and the only thing that makes LeBlanc more difficult is that you have to choose which skill to mimic. A lot of the highest win rate champions are mechanically intensive (Zyra, Vel'koz), while some of the lowest win rate champions are fairly faceroll (Jax, Tristana).

Yes, LeBlanc has only one skill shot... unless she uses her ult right after she uses it? Or does her dash count as another skill shot, like it does with Ezreal? Ulted dash?

The argument that I see more often is how easy it is to transition from one champion to another. For example, if you pick up Lucian and then go to try Graves, you'll likely have an easier time with him than if you went from Master Yi to Graves. From this perspective, the more mechanically challenging the champion, the less likely they are to be similar enough to one other champion, thus the harder they are to pickup. Once again, the harder a champion is to pick up, the lower their win rate is for the first while.

{quoted}

#4. Most players are in Silver and Bronze, and cannot play OP but mechanically intensive champions. This is again, not backed up by statistics. Lee Sin and LeBlanc have ~45% win rate in both Bronze and Diamond. Yasuo's win rate is actually 3% higher in Bronze than Diamond. In contrast, faceroll champions such as Akali, Ashe, Katarina, and Talon have much higher win rates in Diamond, even though they know that buying pink wards counters Akali and Kat ult can be interrupted.

Lets not kid ourselves, many things work in Bronze and Silver that would not work in higher elos. Likewise, many things that work in higher elos would not work in Bronze or Silver (lane swaps anyone?). Twisted Fate has the 11th lowest win rate in Bronze (46%), but the 76th lowest win rate in Diamond (52%). Twisted Fate is one of those champions that is deceptively hard to play, despite having fairly simple mechanics. Simply knowing the mechanics is different from using them correctly. Twisted Fate is one of those champions with about average popularity too, so he's not everyone's "go to" mid laner, but he's also not played only by people who main him.

TL;DR: There will always be a reason for the stats. Saying Win rates, by themselves, universally matter is wrong. Saying win rates, taken with other factors, matter is generally right.

More from Gameplay

3 Refunds per season, upvote if you want 3 refunds per season.
Gameplay764 comments
7,167
votes
3 Refunds per season, upvote if you want 3 refunds per season.
Gameplay156 comments
3,510
votes
UPVOTE FOR URF
Gameplay606 comments
2,440
votes
Yes plz.
Gameplay456 comments
1,721
votes
3 Refunds per season, up vote if you want 3 refunds per season.
Gameplay114 comments
1,716
votes
When is ANYONE at riot going to address the awful new player experience?
Gameplay634 comments
1,383
votes

More by ApplyForAGrant

No one complained about Zed before mana regen nerfs
Gameplay71 comments
110
votes
Give Fiddlesticks an option to cancel his ultimate
Gameplay34 comments
74
votes
Out of 46 midlaners, the top 17 in win rates are all considered not viable in LCS.
Gameplay54 comments
67
votes
You have to give Rito credit for Ekko
Gameplay69 comments
41
votes
Looking at the top NA solo que ladder...
Gameplay50 comments
35
votes
How to fix Elise with one small change.
Gameplay22 comments
23
votes