Link me your pick'ems and discuss!

Better Jungler·Oct 7, 2018·2 votes·2,959 views

I think I'm good on it right now.

Couple areas I'm not sure about. (Group A and Group D seem close)

http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/series/5/user/4659623/my-picks

Discuss! :D

11 Comments

FlemmanOct 7, 20182 votes

http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/series/5/user/699061/my-picks

well, we kinda have the same except group B were the first seed of LCK should end in first placd imo

For the chinese team, I can't put any of them in first place as they have a bad habit of choking hard in group stage while the 3 Korean team are safe bet

the biggest question mark to me is flash wolf, they usually play ap assassin mid and, except akali (and maybe lb/kass?), we haven't seen many of them during the play in. I don't know how they will perform in an urgot meta

MelvearOct 8, 20181 votes

{quoted}

http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/series/5/user/699061/my-picks

well, we kinda have the same except group B were the first seed of LCK should end in first placd imo

For the chinese team, I can't put any of them in first place as they have a bad habit of choking hard in group stage while the 3 Korean team are safe bet

the biggest question mark to me is flash wolf, they usually play ap assassin mid and, except akali (and maybe lb/kass?), we haven't seen many of them during the play in. I don't know how they will perform in an urgot meta

RNG won MSI and look very strong still, and they have been the best team from China at worlds historically, getting to the final or semi final. They are a bit like C9 in that they have performed better at worlds then their region's top seed every time.

Other than that, I didn't go full on logical with my picks because the group phase of worlds never follows logic. Top teams choke, underdogs overperform and the result is always pretty wild. Korean teams do usually perform up to what we expect.

http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/series/5/user/128651/my-picks

I hesitate a lot for group A, I feel it's the group where anything can happen. I kinda wanted to put G2 lower but FW is the TSM of LMS. I went more with my heart than my head in group B (GO C9!) and the rest was mostly logical (KT could beat EDG, as EDG always underperforms at worlds but they seemed strong in play ins so... dunno)

Dr PoroOct 8, 20181 votes

You shouldn't look at historical facts. The meta at MSI was very different from today's meta. Look only at the playoffs/gauntlets for references.

Play-ins are also misleading. The teams they faced are wild card region teams. While wild cards are getting closer to major regions, you can't compare them to the top of korea/china.

MelvearOct 9, 20181 votes

[{quoted}](name=Dr Poro,realm=EUW,application-id=9hBQwnEU,discussion-id=m3mAQddR,comment-id=000000000000,timestamp=2018-10-08T20:49:19.529+0000)

You shouldn't look at historical facts. The meta at MSI was very different from today's meta. Look only at the playoffs/gauntlets for references.

Play-ins are also misleading. The teams they faced are wild card region teams. While wild cards are getting closer to major regions, you can't compare them to the top of korea/china.

While I'm generally in agreement that history doesn't always translate in the present, for teams that have have longstanding issues getting out of groups (EDG, TSM, Flash Wolves being prime examples) I think it does matter. There's a mental effect on those teams. Whatever they did to get to worlds, they often just don't do once the event begins, trying to copy "more successful regions/teams" and it ends up biting them in the ass. Either that or they try so hard not to lose they end up not doing anything proactive and bleed out slowly, a lot of that due to a mental block.

Albus Nox Luna showed something when they got to the knockout stage. If you believe in what you do, and for whatever reason other teams take you lightly at first, you can take games off of better teams. They came in with nothing to lose and played as such. The teams who come in hot from their major region but have a bad history, they come in with a chip on their shoulder and it shows.

I agree play ins a misleading/hard to read. You never really know the relative strength of these teams. C9 had some struggle in their play ins but they also played multiple types of comps, seemingly trying things out as they went and using those games as super scrims or something. EDG stomped pretty hard though, showing fewer things however. They still looked rather convincing, especially iBoy and Meiko.

Dr PoroOct 9, 20181 votes

the Albus story leads to survival bias, though. I think most if not every team believes in what they do. Especially after a victory it's easy to say "yeah we just believed in what we do and it worked". The tilt factor is a thing, though, where after a series of losses it's hard to keep your head cool and especially NA seems to suffer from it. But it's hard to link it to one specific team because the sample of their international games is so low to make conclusions on it (could be coincidence and nothing to do with tilt) and also the player roster usually changes every year, not mentioning the staff behind the scenes.

Showing much in play ins could be a sign of creativity/flexibility but I feel like in this case it was C9 being forced to show their sercet hand too early. EDG didn't have to show their hand because their one tactic that they showed works. Maybe they don't have a hand to show, maybe they have many tricks up their sleeves. Maybe C9 has even more not revealed. But either way, I think teams prefer to not show different strats in play ins and keep their hand as big as possible.

III BAKURYU III Oct 7, 20181 votes

http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/series/5/user/188197/my-picks

Dr PoroOct 8, 20181 votes

Gen G 4th place? You're gonna win the ultimate skins, brother!

III BAKURYU III Oct 8, 20181 votes

Working process ATM. Doing my true prediction over the next couple of days. I just don't know..... every group and competition over the previous Worlds makes me think we will get more tie-breakers, extra games and overall, a great group stage games.

CIaymanOct 7, 20181 votes

the fuck is a pickem

TheBentOn3Oct 8, 20181 votes

http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/series/5/user/3372089/my-picks

Group A and D are the tricky ones. Putting my hopes in Flash Wolves finaly getting it together this year.

Group D is a bummer because its the only group an NA team has a realistic shot at getting out of (Sorry C9, I love you guys but you aren't beating Gen.G. and RNG), but 100T is also terrible, so.....

AdrenilynOct 9, 20181 votes

http://pickem.lolesports.com/share/series/5/user/3696731/my-picks

Group A thoughts:

Afreeca Freecs and Flash Wolves got this. I give them both a chance a 1 and 2. Still debating on who to put first. G2 will show up like G2 does at worlds. Phong, umm what a name. That's all I'll remember.

Group B thoughts:

RNG and Gen. G get out easily. Again, another toss up in my mind on 1st and 2nd. If Cuvee goes Ultra Instinct mode then Gen.G will easily take 1st. Sorry Cloud9, I really wanna have faith in you, but to many newcomers that looked terrible at the NA Finals. Vitality, well good luck. Try and get 1 game atleast.

Group C thoughts:

Team Liquid and KT Rolster. I really believe TL will take first because I really believe this is the year Doublelift pops off at worlds. Plus he finally has other players that can carry there weight if he isn't at his best. The return of Season 3 Impact is what will set them apart. TOP DIE, JUNGLE DIE. Also, KT is known to not perform on the big stage, even though they finally made it back to worlds by winning Korea. EDG. well just watch the game vs Infinity. They are the 15 min squad, but TL and KT easily match if not better there early game. Finally, don't be so mad, MAD..

Group D thoughts:

IG easily take 1st seed, but 2nd and 3rd are up for grabs. I do think 100 Thieves will nab the 2nd seed with beating Fnatic in a tie breaker, but that will still be a challenge. No reason to speak on G-Rex because the shenanigans they had in play-ins will not work against these top tier teams.

Can't wait for the morning. LETS GO BABY!