Ranks actually do mean nothing

KirbyCake··6 votes·1,392 views

Any player has with probability 1 of reaching the top rank just by playing enough games.

Assumptions -

  1. This player has a non-0 chance of winning any game
  2. This player's actual skill level is not negative infinity
  3. The number of games needed to beat the top rank is finite
  4. This player has >50% chance of winning whenever his elo drops below his actual skill level.

Let p denote lowest possible probability this player has of winning a game. p is not 0 by definition. Let N denote the number of games needed to surpass the top rank. His probability of getting there in a single attempt is p1p2p3*...pN>p^N>0. If he fails, he can try again. If his rank drops below his actual skill level, by random walk theorem, with probability 1 he will return to his actual rank and can try again. With probability 0 his elo will drop to negative infinity. lim1-(1-p^N)^n has n goes to infinite is 1.

Therefore with probability 1, this player will reach the top rank.

8 Comments

EndlessSorcerer1 votes

I'm not quite sure, but I think this may qualify as an abuse of mathematics.

IIRC it's random walk theory, not theorem. Might be wrong though.

Vistha Kai2 votes

Actually that's how probability works.

Especially if we consider how enormous the sample size is.

DrtyTrolls1 votes

Funniest thing I see is people that are or used to be gold plat or even diamond in normal draft lose to a bronze or no rank player. Like seriously, either you were boosted or had a stroke that left you mentally retarded.

KirbyCake6 votes

or they just play a lot of ranked games?

LordGeovanni1 votes

teammates and enemies are are part of the formula

Sasogwa1 votes

If it goes to an infinite number of games. That reasoning, while true, is bad. If we take an infinite sample, of course you're gonna reach challenger. Because there's always gonna be, in an infinite number of games (just because it's infinite) a huge lucky streak making you go challenger.

Just like if we take a monkey randomly typing on a keyboard constantly for an infinite amount of time, there's gonna be a time where he'll write a novel. Because he has an infinite amount of time to do that (monkey is supposedly immortal).

In real time, it never works. You would have to calculate the probability of him reaching challenger in a limited amount of games, cause he doesn't have an infinite amount of time. Even if he plays 24/7, he'd be pretty lucky actually.

We can say league is a statistical approximation of your level. As an example, we could say (fictive numbers) when you're in X league and have done a fair amount of games, you have a high percentage of being worth that league, and it's a Gauss-like repartition around that. fictive example -> As D4 I'd have 50% being worth that league, 15% being worth D3 or D5, 10% being worth P1 or D2, etc. I REPEAT THIS IS FICTIVE EXAMPLE, this is how statistics in a random repartition look.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

The Whamboozler1 votes

The lottery means nothing. If you play it enough you WILL win. It's a mathmatical certainty. Therefore everyone has won the lottery and the lottery is meaningless.

You are bad at logic.

Eraenis1 votes

This is promoting the single biggest missconception about league there is. You do NOT actually get better at playing league of legends just by playing lots of games

pretty good explanation of this issue

More from Gameplay

More by KirbyCake