Stats actually do mean something. Here's why.

Mortekaiser··25 votes·3,666 views

Too often, I've come across statements like

"Winrate means nothing" "lol you're citing meaningless stats, <champion X> is garbage tier and should never be banned unless you're bronze for life!!!" "what a scrub, you don't know anything!"

Unfortunately for these people, the stats actually do mean something.

For example, here's what you'll see when you load up champion.gg and check the highest winrate that's prominently featured at the front. http://i.imgur.com/e07iznY.png

And if you're uninitiated, you'll go "wow! this site sucks! jarvan 4 as the best toplaner??? wtf man" and immediately dismiss any further information. But you have to look closer. It's not just winrate that matters, it's also playrate, and banrate in conjunction.

Lets look at Jarvan IV, to start with.

http://i.imgur.com/a2hctkK.png

While it is true that J4 technically has the highest winrate among toplaners at the moment, you also have to look at the banrate and playrate. After observing these stats, you notice 2 things: -He has a very small playrate. -Practically no banrate at all.

Noting these two things, I can assert that Jarvan is a decent counterpick in specific matchups rather than a great overall pick. If I look further down the page at the matchups section (where the champions that Jarvan players usually pick into are listed), I'll see that Jarvan is picked the most against Riven, Gangplank, and Nasus. It appears that Top Laners usually play Jarvan into those matchups simply to counterpick, rather than actually pick because he's broken OP.

Next, I'll move down to Vi, who is listed as the top Jungler at the moment.

http://i.imgur.com/ouyN5Yw.png

Vi has the highest winrate among all Jungling champions. Furthermore, she is sporting both a high playrate AND banrate. Her high banrate combined with a high playrate suggests that players are playing her even when they aren't very experienced with her. Her winrate still being nearly 55% even after that fact suggests to me that she is busted as fuck.

Ziggs has most of the same attributes as Vi, although not nearly as inflated playrate and banrates. I'd still classify Ziggs as banworthy.

Kogmaw has the highest winrate for ADC, but nobody plays him. Kogmaw would not be worth a ban due to low playrate.

Janna is an interesting case. She has both a high winrate and playrate, but a low banrate. Players seem unwilling to ban a support even though her mere presence in games appears to be warping games in her favor. I've sat here for 30 minutes thinking of any suggestions for her, but all I can say is just try to work around her or pick her on your team. Ban her only if you have no idea of what else to ban.

TL;DR: Stats are important. Winrate, playrate, AND banrate are to be taken in conjunction with each other. So when people complain about how much a champion wins, look at their playrate/banrates before telling people off for "being a scrubs" and ignorantly telling them that "winrate means nothing."

37 Comments

LankPants9 votes

One other thing to consider is to cross check your numbers, especially using champ.gg because it's very unreliable.

Other sites paint a different picture of J4 top. OP.GG: NA:50% / EUW:50.28% League of Graphs:49.7% Lolalytics:50.81%

Compare these results all clustered around 50% to champ.gg's 54%. Champ.gg lining up with other statistic sites is the exception, not the norm. It's an inaccurate site with bad data collection which you shouldn't rely on for data.

As for who's actually the top winrate toplaners, League of Graphs and op.gg both say Rengar, Rengar is also second on Lolaylitcs. Darius is first on Lolayltics, second on League of Graphs and 6th (same winrate, just more champs above him) on op.gg. So these 2 champs appear to be the top 2 top laners right now. Rengar's playrate is a little bellow average top but he does have an absurd ban rate.

Mortekaiser5 votes

{quoted}

One other thing to consider is to cross check your numbers, especially using champ.gg because it's very unreliable.

Other sites paint a different picture of J4 top. OP.GG: NA:50% / EUW:50.28% League of Graphs:49.7% Lolalytics:50.81%

Compare these results all clustered around 50% to champ.gg's 54%. Champ.gg lining up with other statistic sites is the exception, not the norm. It's an inaccurate site with bad data collection which you shouldn't rely on for data.

As for who's actually the top winrate toplaners, League of Graphs and op.gg both say Rengar, Rengar is also second on Lolaylitcs. Darius is first on Lolayltics, second on League of Graphs and 6th (same winrate, just more champs above him) on op.gg. So these 2 champs appear to be the top 2 top laners right now. Rengar's playrate is a little bellow average top but he does have an absurd ban rate.

If stats are so skewed between sites, then how can I trust any stats?

Why is there no repository of stats that all sites can draw figures from?

If OP.GG, League of Graphs, and Lolalytics cannot come to the same #s, then I can't say for certain if any site at all is fully truthful.

This is not a problem any player can deal with. Sure I could peruse op.gg instead but if I'm still not getting correct #s then what's the point?

Us players need better resources when it comes to this.

LankPants6 votes

If stats are so skewed between sites, then how can I trust any stats?

Every site takes its own sample, none of them use the set of all games. There's inherent variance because of this.

Why is there no repository of stats that all sites can draw figures from?

There should be, there isn't, blame Riot. I'd love to see a section on the website where you could find aggregated winrates from different regions pulled directly from Riot's database, I don't see it happening though.

If OP.GG, League of Graphs, and Lolalytics cannot come to the same #s, then I can't say for certain if any site at all is fully truthful.

The difference between champ.gg and the other sites is that the other sites are approximately the same, they're all within 0.6125% of the mean, that's not a huge variance. When you throw champ.gg into that it's 3.066% off of the mean of all sites, the next furthest off the mean of all sites is LoG at 1.264% and that's only because champ.gg being an outlier pulls the mean up.

This is not a problem any player can deal with. Sure I could peruse op.gg instead but if I'm still not getting correct #s then what's the point?

Statistics are a representative sample. Statistics are never 100% correct. The best statistics are those that are the closest to the actual population. Since we don't know the actual population it's assumed that statics that agree the most closely with other statistics are overall the most accurate. It's far more likely that one site is wrong than that three sites are wrong.

Us players need better resources when it comes to this.

You chose to try to argue against me when I told you are better. If you don't believe me click the first link in my first post. It's a Rioter saying that champ.gg is basically garbage and suggesting you use op.gg instead. I agree that we need better resources but you do yourself no favours by using overall one of if not the worst sources available.

FantasySniper2 votes

Lolking and Champion.gg are much better references, as you can get a breakdown of stats at varying levels of play, and it tends to be more accurate. Champion.gg in particular is a better reference, as it negates games at below a platinum level, which quite frankly are statistically insignificant for champion balance at competitive levels.

LoLKing and Champion.gg are terrible references. They don't show actual build patterns and overall are lesser resources for statistics. The "most frequent build" on champion.gg more often than not represents less than 10% of actual games. current.lolalytics.com only shows plat+ stats, but it is superior to Champion.gg for the sheer amount of data that it gives. leagueofgraphs gives data on any rank+, and shows all of the graphs that the other sites have. You should also use 2ez.gg, which supplies all the other LoL stats sites and more.

This was part of a serious argument between between me and a diamond player. They didn't understand at all, and still continued to say "Lolking and champion.gg use stats tailored toward high level of play" like a dumbass. Just goes to show your rank means little for your credibility.

LankPants1 votes

op.gg and lolalytics literally say plat+ on the champion page. You can list LoG by rank anyway. His argument doesn't make any sense.

TwinkiePro2 votes

Vi has been disgustingly good for a while, mainly due in part to her somewhat simple kit and great engage. Once CotC rolled around, she just became a godlike bruiser.

But hey, let's nerf Lee Sin.

KoggyStyle1 votes

nah lets buff her and nerf irelia XD

TwinkiePro1 votes

When in doubt, better nerf irelia

ValyrianBlade2 votes

{quoted}

Too often, I&#039;ve come across statements like

&quot;Winrate means nothing&quot; &quot;lol you&#039;re citing meaningless stats, &lt;champion X&gt; is garbage tier and should never be banned unless you&#039;re bronze for life!!!&quot; &quot;what a scrub, you don&#039;t know anything!&quot;

Unfortunately for these people, the stats actually do mean something.

For example, here&#039;s what you&#039;ll see when you load up champion.gg and check the highest winrate that&#039;s prominently featured at the front. http://i.imgur.com/e07iznY.png

And if you&#039;re uninitiated, you&#039;ll go &quot;wow! this site sucks! jarvan 4 as the best toplaner??? wtf man&quot; and immediately dismiss any further information. But you have to look closer. It&#039;s not just winrate that matters, it&#039;s also playrate, and banrate in conjunction.

Lets look at Jarvan IV, to start with.

http://i.imgur.com/a2hctkK.png

While it is true that J4 technically has the highest winrate among toplaners at the moment, you also have to look at the banrate and playrate. After observing these stats, you notice 2 things: -He has a very small playrate. -Practically no banrate at all.

Noting these two things, I can assert that Jarvan is a decent counterpick in specific matchups rather than a great overall pick. If I look further down the page at the matchups section (where the champions that Jarvan players usually pick into are listed), I&#039;ll see that Jarvan is picked the most against Riven, Gangplank, and Nasus. It appears that Top Laners usually play Jarvan into those matchups simply to counterpick, rather than actually pick because he&#039;s broken OP.

Next, I&#039;ll move down to Vi, who is listed as the top Jungler at the moment.

http://i.imgur.com/ouyN5Yw.png

Vi has the highest winrate among all Jungling champions. Furthermore, she is sporting both a high playrate AND banrate. Her high banrate combined with a high playrate suggests that players are playing her even when they aren&#039;t very experienced with her. Her winrate still being nearly 55% even after that fact suggests to me that she is busted as fuck.

Ziggs has most of the same attributes as Vi, although not nearly as inflated playrate and banrates. I&#039;d still classify Ziggs as banworthy.

Kogmaw has the highest winrate for ADC, but nobody plays him. Kogmaw would not be worth a ban due to low playrate.

Janna is an interesting case. She has both a high winrate and playrate, but a low banrate. Players seem unwilling to ban a support even though her mere presence in games appears to be warping games in her favor. I&#039;ve sat here for 30 minutes thinking of any suggestions for her, but all I can say is just try to work around her or pick her on your team. Ban her only if you have no idea of what else to ban.

TL;DR: Stats are important. Winrate, playrate, AND banrate are to be taken in conjunction with each other. So when people complain about how much a champion wins, look at their playrate/banrates before telling people off for &quot;being a scrubs&quot; and ignorantly telling them that &quot;winrate means nothing.&quot;

One problem you have is that Champion.gg has unreliable data.

J4 is nowhere near the highest win rate top lane. His win rate is ranked 20th among top laners according to this: http://na.op.gg/champion/jarvaniv/statistics/top

And Riot has explicitly said many times that op.gg's data aligns MUCH more closely to their internal data than Champion.gg's does. They've outright said not to use Champion.gg's data because it doesn't represent what they see at all.

I find champion.gg to still be useful for looking up build paths, skill orders, masteries, runes, etc... (as the op.gg game doesn't always list reliable options, e.g. they claim grasp is the best keystone on him then don't post any masteries with grasp). Their data probably isn't perfect either, but at least for win rates it's confirmed by Riot as more reliable.

Immortal spax2 votes

lmao, 99% banrate kassadin had 47%, was he underpowered?

Eedat1 votes

Playrate is literally meaningless. Why would you make assumptions of the playerbase when you can use actual stats? You can scroll down and see how many matches he's played against different champions and his winrate with them. You dont have to assume "people pick him as a counter" when you can actually look. You also can view the amount of experience these people have on J4 top with the "playerbase average games" stat and the pie chart that breaks it down further. The ban rate is also meaningless because people aren't going to waste a ban on a champ that has a 1% pick rate

Mortekaiser8 votes

{quoted}

Playrate is literally meaningless. Why would you make assumptions of the playerbase when you can use actual stats? You can scroll down and see how many matches he's played against different champions and his winrate with them. You dont have to assume "people pick him as a counter" when you can actually look. You also can view the amount of experience these people have on J4 top with the "playerbase average games" stat and the pie chart that breaks it down further. The ban rate is also meaningless because people aren't going to waste a ban on a champ that has a 1% pick rate

did you even read the post

Eedat1 votes

Uh,

Kinda

You may have my upvote. I'll just be on my way now.

Handy Sandy 1 votes

I don't ban Janna, or any support really, since most of them suck since I'm unranked. Even when they are good, they can't peel me off because I'm Azir

Mortekaiser1 votes

[{quoted}](name=Chroma Spell,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=w6gocRbm,comment-id=0001,timestamp=2017-01-21T06:18:52.366+0000)

I don't ban Janna, or any support really, since most of them suck since I'm unranked. Even when they are good, they can't peel me off because I'm Azir

yeah most of the time I wouldn't recommend banning janna

SH Azykan1 votes

exceptions being ofc is if she absolutely ruins the champs you are playing (a good janna ruins a camille and Vi pretty well as well as alistar or leona in lane.)

bbQsauçe1 votes

[deleted]

Mortekaiser2 votes

[{quoted}](name=bbQ s,realm=EUW,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=w6gocRbm,comment-id=0002,timestamp=2017-01-21T08:13:36.444+0000)

It's not that easy, high playrate doesn't actually mean anything. You have to look at the playerbase experience distribution to see if it's played by mostly mains or noobs. Just because it has a high playrate doesn't mean it's played a lot by noobs (usually it does, but not always), look at lee sin for example, he's got 25% playrate but it's mostly experienced players that play him.

did you even read my post

I said winrate in conjunction with banrate and playrate often tells you a lot.

High playrate still means something. It means you'll be more likely in of itself to see that champion in your games, so you can take that into account when forming a team and when banning champions.

http://i.imgur.com/dZrbp3q.png

Lee sin has a high playrate, but low winrate and high banrate. Most of the champions that lee sin counters aren't really meta right now. Vi, Shaco, and Zac appear to beat him out the most, and they are pretty hot picks right now. See also, Jarvan, Hecarim, Shyvana, Xin Zhao. These jungle champions have a large # of games played against Lee Sin as well as boasting high winrates against him.

If only mains are playing Lee Sin, then his winrate would reflect that. Instead, he is among the lower brackets as far as winrate goes. This, along with his playrate and banrate, tells me that:

-Players feel pressured to pick Lee because he may not be banned a game, even though they don't have a lot of experience with him. -Those players end up feeding and playing poorly, warping statistics.

In the end, Lee Sin is still probably worth a ban because: -He is picked a lot overall -You may not want one (a bad one) on your team -Very good Lee Sin players are absolute nightmares to deal with.

bbQsauçe3 votes

[deleted]

Mortekaiser2 votes

[{quoted}](name=bbQ s,realm=EUW,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=w6gocRbm,comment-id=000200000000,timestamp=2017-01-21T09:58:34.969+0000)

Yes i did read your post and replied why i disagree, there's no need to be condescending. Banrate doesn't tell you anything, zed has a high ban rate despite being one of the worst midlaners right now. Playrate doesn't tell you anything either itself, like i said, you have to look at the playerbase experience distribution. A high playrate doesn't mean it's played by a lot of beginners, usually it is, but not always.

For example let's look at Vi's stats: 54% winrate 15% playrate 18% banrate Let's look at her playerbase experience distribution: http://imgur.com/a/7YkU7

As you can see the majority aren't experienced players.

But if we take look at lee's stats and his playerbase experience distribution: 47% winrate 25% playrate 20% banrate

http://imgur.com/a/rF9gh

You can see almost half of the people that play him is experienced players, even though he has 25% playrate.

So yeah, to get conclusive stats you have to look not only at winrate and playrate, but also how many experienced players play that champion.

You're putting too much focus on the experience distribution. It does not take very long to get acclimated towards a champion and how they perform.

And your assertion of the fact that banrate/playrate/winrate means nothing without experience distribution is erroneous. The trifecta of winrate/banrate/playrate is far more important to the entire picture than experience distribution.

His playerbase is indeed, on average, more experienced with Lee than the average Vi player. But the fact that his winrate is so low offsets this. If mains are the ones usually playing him, then his winrate should be much higher than it is.

I will concede that experience distribution is important for a complete and exhaustive analysis of how a champion is performing, but for most players it is not necessary.

Xintium1 votes

{quoted}

You're putting too much focus on the experience distribution. It does not take very long to get acclimated towards a champion and how they perform.

And your assertion of the fact that banrate/playrate/winrate means nothing without experience distribution is erroneous. The trifecta of winrate/banrate/playrate is far more important to the entire picture than experience distribution.

BBQs is actually right and you are wrong on this point. Experience distribution is important and must be taken into account (I don't know if you have any background on statistics). A "normalized" winrate (normalized to the experience distribution) would be a lot more meaningful than winrate.

For simplicity, I will assume negligible banrate and "not low" playrate in the following. Take the dataset for champion X. Remove all the unexperienced players and consider only a certain ELO range (e.g., Plat+ ranked games only). Calculate the resulting winrate on this filtered dataset.

In this way, we could actually compare what the true dedicated players are doing with champion X at each ELO. And this comparison is more meaningful than winrate, as it is not skewed by unexperienced players nor One Trick Ponies (OTPs). OTPs are actually a valuable resource in this way (while with regular winrate they are a biasing factor).

So if, say, Vi has roughly 55% (unnormalized) winrate, but it actually has very high, say 70%, normalized winrate (calculated as I explained above) in high ELO, than it is really easy to spot and something should be done (nerf her!). The same applies for champions with low normalized winrate. So, if high ELO, experienced players with champion X still have low normalized winrate, despite their experience of the game in general and their mastery of the champion, it is a good time to look at champion X (try a small buff first, then collect data and see what happens). The ideal point is when normalized winrate becomes roughly 50% for all champions (this will never happen, especially in this fundamentally flawed S7).

Obviously, this normalized winrate, just as winrate, cannot be interpreted alone: banrate and playrate must still be considered. However, it is indeed a more meaningful piece of information than (unnormalized) winrate.

Stats do mean something, but one must be careful when using them.

Orangesilk1 votes

You know, except when they DON'T ACTUALLY MEAN ANYTHING.

http://imgur.com/a/MybCv

There is such a thing as statistical artifacts caused by the fact that winrates are basically probability distributions that you can't infer a lot of information from when you have a small sample size.

You know, unless you actually believe that players with absolutely no Cho'Gath experience have an edge when playing the champion to the point of reaching 100% winrate. Give it a go, try to abuse that 'never played cho before' free ELO and tell me how it goes.

Mortekaiser2 votes

{quoted}

You know, except when they DON'T ACTUALLY MEAN ANYTHING.

http://imgur.com/a/MybCv

There is such a thing as statistical artifacts caused by the fact that winrates are basically probability distributions that you can't infer a lot of information from when you have a small sample size.

You know, unless you actually believe that players with absolutely no Cho'Gath experience have an edge when playing the champion to the point of reaching 100% winrate. Give it a go, try to abuse that 'never played cho before' free ELO and tell me how it goes.

Well no shit, I've considered sample sizes. All of my examples take into consideration sample size as well as playrate, winrate, and banrate. You'll note that I state Jarvan was a good counterpick and not a good overall pick, and that's because of the games played, Winrate/banrate/playrate, as well as what Jarvan players typically pick into.

Most people, when they are discussing stats as far as league goes, are taking into consideration if there isn't enough of a sample size to make a reasonable decision.

Since you brought it up, let's take a look at Cho'Gath:

http://i.imgur.com/aMI11gn.png

-Poor Winrate -Poor Playrate -Basically not banned in any games.

Champs that Cho'gath counters are either not in the Meta, or B-tier or below picks in this Meta. Most popular champions right now can deal with him quite well.

Sample size is important, but I figured that was blatantly obvious.

snibedi snab1 votes

Oh man I literally, GENUINELY forgot that J4 existed in this game.

Mortekaiser1 votes

[{quoted}](name=Executive Pigeon,realm=EUW,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=w6gocRbm,comment-id=0004,timestamp=2017-01-21T09:00:21.374+0000)

Oh man I literally, GENUINELY forgot that J4 existed in this game.

Yeah you're not the only one, I love that champ and wish he got a tiny buff somewhere to increase his QoL, but alas, everyone still remembers the time he was basically pick/ban and they just can't let it go.

Meanwhile Vi sitting on almost 55% winrate with high as fuck ban/playrates and that's ok for some reason.

grug1 votes

dont forget the champion mains and OTPs skewing the statistics l0l.

rtbf761092711 votes

Someone should come up with an algorithm to interpret play rate, ban rate, playerbase experience vs win rate and overall win rate all in conjunction to make claims on who is actually the most op

Danjeng2 votes

Overall Placement is the algorithm.

Swarovsko1 votes

Talking about a champ's strenghts and weaknesses >>> "omfg ahri 53% win rate pls nerf"

Danjeng1 votes

http://champion.gg/champion/Ahri

Every stat of her's is green (above average). I don't think I have ever seen another champion with stats as high as this. Impressive. And on her strengths, she's a very safe pick due to her mobility/kiting potential. Weaknesses are unreliable CC and burst.

But it's still undeniable Ahri is top-tier.

Here's op.gg too, for those who don't trust champion.gg. http://na.op.gg/champion/ahri/statistics/mid She's 1st in pick rate, 10th in win rate.

chipndip11 votes

And when someone else says it, all of a sudden people magically understand. As per usual.

Anidan1 votes

Don't kid yourself, people will continue to dismiss anything that doesn't fit their narrative and try to make anything fit into their agenda so long as it's in their favor to give them more to lean on and look as if every point is on their side.

The people who already know this most likely aren't the ones making posts that use those isolated statistics in the first place.

Arakadia1 votes

Excellently said imho.

NodirjonSattarov1 votes

Kog'Maw is really shitty to play as. High elo has more strategical macro play and peeling (as well as scripters) which inflate his winrate. Low ELO copy higher elo "fun" picks like Malzahar and Ziggs which is just a nightmare for Kog'Maw. personal experience

Rock MD2 votes

[{quoted}](name=General KogMaw,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=w6gocRbm,comment-id=000e,timestamp=2017-01-21T23:25:51.908+0000)

Kog'Maw is really shitty to play as. High elo has more strategical macro play and peeling (as well as scripters) which inflate his winrate. Low ELO copy higher elo "fun" picks like Malzahar and Ziggs which is just a nightmare for Kog'Maw. personal experience

lmao wut? Ziggs and Malzahar aren't "fun" picks. They're legitimate, top tier picks right now that see play in professional games in their specific roles as botlaners.

Also Kog'Maw should probably be played as an AP right now, considering his core is Archangel, Rylai's, and Liandry's, and 2 are really good right now with the third being absurdly cheap. That is if nerfs didn't come in a few patches ago and they completely flew past me.

NodirjonSattarov1 votes

nerfs did come (despite his 1% play rate) which reduced E damage by 5 per level (max was -20) and reduced his ratios on E by 20% which is huge

riot has explicitly said that they don't want AP Kog'Maw to exist. rylias is not as good post nerfs imo, i'd rather get ludens echo and land all my skill shots

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