Mathematical proof that you should never surrender in ranked to climb:

Dasdi96·May 9, 2017·4 votes·530 views

Let's say you are really behind at the 20 minute mark in a ranked match, with only a 5% chance of winning. If you decide to surrender, you have a 100% chance to lose 20 lp. So expected gain = -20 If you decided to not surrender, you have a 95% chance to lose 20 lp and a 5% chance to gain 20 lp. So expected gain = -18 This results in an expected return of +2 lp for the 15 minutes you spent continuing the game. You may think "If I surrender now I can start a new game." Well, you only have a 50% chance to win the next game, which is an expected gain of 0 lp. Since voting no to surrender has a higher expected return, it is the better option.

11 Comments

fuffychanMay 9, 20172 votes

People who vote no on surrenders in hopeless games deserve to be banned.

Dasdi96May 9, 20171 votes

{quoted}

People who vote no on surrenders in hopeless games deserve to be banned.

There is no such thing as a hopeless game, there is always a chance to win the game, even if it is 0.00001%.

fuffychanMay 9, 20171 votes

If Im losing 50-0 and the other team is camping my fountain with Blitzcrank Idgaf if theres a 0.00000001% chance they all DC and we win, ITS NOT FUN. Guess what, games are for fun first, and tryhards like you ruin it for everyone else.

Who is TaliyahMay 10, 20172 votes

Well sorry to tell you this, but I won some incredibly games in the past. I remember one game just too good. It was back in season 3 where the enemy team had 25 kills at minute 15 in bronze elo and we had 1 kill. The enemy team had 6 towers we had 0

They just completely stomped us. BUT, we managed to turtle. We managed to make this game 60 minutes long and win this incredible game.

I know, this was back in season 3 where towers weren't as crappy as now, where damage creep wasn't as serious and such, but the fact remains the same.

A few days ago, I played support Taliyah and the enemy team got the lead pretty fast. They had the total kill and objective advantage, but we still managed to turn it around later on and win.

It takes more time and it is incredibly hard to come back in such games, but if you do, it is totally worth it. Not only the mere 29 LP I got from the game, but also the game experience and knowledge I took from the game from a few days ago.

Never give up, as bad as the game might seem.

fuffychanMay 10, 20172 votes

{quoted}

hey guess what ive played over 1000 games over YEARS but I remember this ONE game

lol

Who is TaliyahMay 10, 20172 votes

You might laugh, but yes it is like this.

I played over 5000 games in total and there are really some games I still remember from a few years back. Games that teached me much stuff for example. Or games that were just incredible on their own. Without remembering those games, I wouldn't be the rank that I am now.

rework trundleMay 10, 20171 votes

{quoted}

Well sorry to tell you this, but I won some incredibly games in the past. I remember one game just too good. It was back in season 3 where the enemy team had 25 kills at minute 15 in bronze elo and we had 1 kill. The enemy team had 6 towers we had 0

They just completely stomped us. BUT, we managed to turtle. We managed to make this game 60 minutes long and win this incredible game.

I know, this was back in season 3 where towers weren't as crappy as now, where damage creep wasn't as serious and such, but the fact remains the same.

A few days ago, I played support Taliyah and the enemy team got the lead pretty fast. They had the total kill and objective advantage, but we still managed to turn it around later on and win.

It takes more time and it is incredibly hard to come back in such games, but if you do, it is totally worth it. Not only the mere 29 LP I got from the game, but also the game experience and knowledge I took from the game from a few days ago.

Never give up, as bad as the game might seem.

I'm sorry to point out elo on this, but you were in bronze. Players don't know how to end and use a heavy lead.

For the original topic ; In the scenario where you gain and lose 20 lp If a game lasts around 30 mins you have technically 50% chance to win. 0.5*20 = 10. 10>2

This is simplified af, I hope my point was clearer. It's kinda the same reason why aggro decks are much more popular in card games, if you're familiar with them.

Dasdi96May 10, 20171 votes

[{quoted}](name=le un le seul,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=rTiQvh2O,comment-id=000000010001,timestamp=2017-05-10T00:15:16.773+0000)

I'm sorry to point out elo on this, but you were in bronze. Players don't know how to end and use a heavy lead.

For the original topic ; In the scenario where you gain and lose 20 lp If a game lasts around 30 mins you have technically 50% chance to win. 0.5*20 = 10. 10>2

This is simplified af, I hope my point was clearer. It's kinda the same reason why aggro decks are much more popular in card games, if you're familiar with them.

There is also a 50% chance to lose 20 lp, which cancels out the 10 lp.

rtbf221651412May 10, 20171 votes

As with the last one, late game, early game, and mid game champions existing are not calculated in this. Also, builds, strategy, and etc are also not calculated nor are brain dead people and smurfs.

IllivashiMay 10, 20171 votes

I dont have any issue with your post, just i feel that the word "never" is too strong. You shouldn't surrender if you want to climb, but i mean... if my lucian is 2/15, well, at a certain point of feeding it becomes really difficult/impossible to hard carry that shit