This is How as a Community We can prove once and for ALL Matchmaking is RIgged!

DeadUnborn·Feb 12, 2018·2 votes·532 views

I heavily suspect matchmaking is rigged to make you have a 50% win rate so you don't get "bored" by losing too much and quit playing.

Here is how we can prove if matchmaking is rigged or not:

1.- Go look at your matchmaking history 2.- Check whether you have EITHER won or lost more than 3 times in a row, AT LEAST once, while playing normals and not tryharding as 5 man premades, smurfing or some shit like that 3.- Answer the survey

The only way we can find out conclusively if matchmaking is rigged is if a lot of people answer. Is on all of us to find out

And please, comment any thoughts on the subject you may have!

40 Comments

ChargeItDownMidFeb 12, 20182 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 12, 20181 votes

Wrong.

I am working on the assumption that most matches are stomps either way. That way the matchmaking queue time would be optimized around rotating which team member either win or lose. That way queue times would always be consistent since the same "type" of match is always being played. The only thing that changes is whether you win or lose said match

ChargeItDownMidFeb 12, 20183 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 12, 20181 votes

Not true, you are not taking into account premades and the player base not being normally distirbuted. What Riot does is balance the MRR of both teams approximately.

The sustem works by scaling your normal MMR every time you win, subsequently queuing you up with worst team mates to even out the teams mean MMR rating

ChargeItDownMidFeb 12, 20181 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 12, 20181 votes

ok, what happens if a Diamond 5 player is palying duo queue with his bronze 5 buddy then?

Under your model, you can only be matched with allies with less mmr than you when you start winning which significantly increases queue times.

Why would being queued with allies with less MMR increase queue times? Keep in mind only about 20% of the player base has "high MMR", while 80% has "low MMR"

ChargeItDownMidFeb 12, 20181 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 12, 20182 votes

ok next step:

Take the average of the two players and then match with anyone in that range. No reason to look at whether or not those people lost or won their prior game.

Now what happens if you have two 2 man premades and a solo player?

Your answer would obviously be: it takes the median of both premade groups and matches with a premade of both premades median averages. That as I said, is by definition:

you are not taking into account premades and the player base not being normally distirbuted. What Riot does is balance the MRR of both teams approximately.

Now that we have established Riot balances median MMR to match teams, we run into the second problem:

There a lot more "low MMR" players than "high MMR" players; The ratio as I told you is 80-20. How does Riot make it so that high MMR players have faster queue times while offsetting to balance median MMR in teams? They use high elo players to balance the median MMR of two teams:

In practice it looks like

one team is: 1 gold and bronze premade, 2 silver premades and a gold solo player

second team: one diamond player and a 4 premade silver team.

Riot doesn't want you the diamond player to quit by making him paired on the losing team all the time, so they check to make sure he sometimes wins by inverting the high mmr players between winning odds and losing odds. That solves for both player skewed distribution and ensuring people don't quit by losing too often. Keep in mind what determiens wether you lose or win is you elo rating, which gets higher as you win more often, therefore pairing with you worst teammates because players with low elo rating are more common than players with high elo rating (alsor emmeber matchmaking works by pairing "similar elor ratings" between both teams).

My point is that I rather have longer queue times and only be paired with players that are higher elo rating.

Hopes this makes it easy for you to understand. IF you still have toruble I recommend watching videos on how overwatch's MMR rating works, it is very similar

ChargeItDownMidFeb 12, 20181 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 12, 20181 votes

Mmmm,** you are still obviating the fact that the player distribution between high and low elo is 20-80**. That is the only part you miss to understand. Well that and that MMR works with approximates, not exact figures.

Riot doesn't put you in "winning and losing categories". What they do is increase your MMR each time you win. Because there aren't as many high MMR players as low MMR, the system HAS to put you MORE OFTEN THAN NOT with people of lower MMR. Especially since most premades are composed of LOW MMR players, thus dragging the average MMR of the team even further down, since it is weighted against the high MMR player.

By definition, the more you win, the least likely it is to be paired against a person of the same skill level as you. Thus you get worst team mates than you did the previous game. Because LoL is composed of laning phases, the worst team mates you have, the higher the chances they are gonna lose lane hard, which equals losing the game.

Now, since the High MMR players are so much fewer than low MMR players,the people at those elo rating oscillate between being at high and low comparative elo rating to other high MMR players. This results in a 50% win rate matchmaking with low queue times

Really if you can't understand it explained that way I give up.

Also you always say the way matchmaking works would increase queue times, you never really explain why, you just say it does. Keep in mind I already explained players aren't being aggregated into categories, only their elo rating compared to it previous one is being compared, that is it.

ChargeItDownMidFeb 13, 20181 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

never changed it, just explained it in more detail so it was easier for you to follow.

Riot doesn't want you the diamond player to quit by making him paired on the losing team all the time, so they check to make sure he sometimes wins by inverting the high mmr players between winning odds and losing odds.

reply from previous post

Riot doesn't put you in "winning and losing categories". What they do is increase your MMR each time you win. Because there aren't as many high MMR players as low MMR, the system HAS to put you MORE OFTEN THAN NOT with people of lower MMR. Especially since most premades are composed of LOW MMR players, thus dragging the average MMR of the team even further down, since it is weighted against the high MMR player.

By definition, the more you win, the least likely it is to be paired against a person of the same skill level as you. Thus you get worst team mates than you did the previous game. Because LoL is composed of laning phases, the worst team mates you have, the higher the chances they are gonna lose lane hard, which equals losing the game.

also

This sort of manipulation cannot be done without increasing queue times.

Fourth time or so you have said this. Never explained why. I have explained why it doesn't though

Another thing, why not just play ranked if you are so sure that normals is intentionally matching you with bad allies?

I'm not an asshole. In normals, I try out new characters or play Teemo on hit top. I am not screwing up my teammates by doing that crap in ranked. Oh and before you intervene, I don't care about winning or losing normals, I care about them being too stompy, which is the way I suspect Riot enforces the 50% win rate, which I find not fun to play in either the winning or losing team.

I also find it odd that you think there aren't enough players in normals to match diamonds with other players in ther mmr range.

Most high elo players concentrate on playing rank rather than normals, precisely because they don't want to be paired with low MMR players. This, coupled with allowing more than 2 man premades, heavily skewers the number of times solo high elo players are paired together in normals

ChargeItDownMidFeb 13, 20181 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

Actually, you made a huge change. Your older model claimed "Riot doesn't want you the diamond player to quit by making him paired on the losing team all the time, so they check to make sure he sometimes wins by inverting the high mmr players between winning odds and losing odds." While your newer model has nothing of the sort.

Under your current model, every game would be fair in the sense that the mmr is balanced between both teams. There is nothing that would artificially stop a player from getting a winning streak or a losing streak. This means that the matchmaking is not "rigged" like your title claims and the poll you brought up about having 3 straight wins or losses is completely meaningless.

So are you ready to concede the point that the average mmr of both teams in each match is equal and therefore matchmaking is not "rigged" or do you wish to change your model again?

See that is why I went into more detail. You were having trouble understanding how the system decided when yo win and when to lose... and now you are confusing it to be two different systems.

Equal average MMR DOES NOT equate to fair games. that is kind of the whole point. If you have a diamond player, 2 silvers and 2 bronzes against 5 golds, the MMRs are going to be on average the same --- HOWEVER, because of laning phase ( as I have already explained to you!) the team with 5 golds is always more likely to win. Since you lose by "default" (aka highly likely) your MMR rating drops (that doens't mean actual skill level, just MMR rating) which means you get better teammates next game and have a higher chance to win, enforcing the 50% win rate. This coupled with low high elo player pop count creates the stomp effect (already explained this as well in detail previously).

That still doesn't explain why ranked can match top 2% players exclusively with other top 2% players while normals cannot when normals have a larger playerbase. Remember, elo follows a bell curve, even if you remove the players who concentrate only on ranked, both the high end of normals and the high end of ranked will follow a similar elo distribution. If there are enough players to only match diamond elo players with other diamond elo players in ranked, there are more than enough players to do the same in normals

Matchmaking for high elo players in ranked works differently than for the rest, and usually, queue times are a lot longer. I am not explaining it in detail since you can look at it yourself with a google search

Better JunglerFeb 13, 20182 votes

Riot has said multiple times that your win rate should sit around 50%.

Theres a logical reason for this though.

Every time you win a game, you should get placed against slightly better opponents.

Every time you lose a game, you get placed against slightly easier opponents.

theres also some merit to the belief that you can go "on a roll". if you perform well in a game, youre more likely to perform well in the next game. just like if youre tilted, youll play worse.

i play at the low gold elo. after three wins in a row, i'm up against gold 1 and plat players. meaning my chance to win goes down significantly, because those players are better than me.

DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

pretty much this, except in normals the player skill level is more varied. Thus the stomps

NethhemarFeb 12, 20181 votes

I've lost and won a lot of games in a row. I've won 10 in a row and lost 10 in a row. Normals will be normals. It's a place to practice champs and play outside a Ranked setting, not always gonna be Bronze 5 and not always gonna be LCS. [slayer-pantheon-thumbs]

DeadUnbornFeb 12, 20181 votes

looking at your match history you haven't even played 3 consecutive normal matches for the last 30 matches at least XD

NethhemarFeb 12, 20181 votes

Not recently of course. Normals are cancer, but back before the season started I remember a particularly disappointing 12 game losing streak.

DeadUnbornFeb 12, 20181 votes

I suspec teh changes to matchmaking were made on preaseason

RenownedWheat42Feb 13, 20181 votes

My winrate has been sub-50 in in norms for a VERY long time. If it's been rigged to force 50%, then I'd, you know, reach it.

DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

you are not level 30 yet. i have no clue how matchmaking works for you guys

RenownedWheat42Feb 13, 20181 votes

I'm level 57.

DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

http://na.op.gg/summoner/userName=RenownedWheat42+

you play a lot of TTL anyhow

RenownedWheat42Feb 13, 20181 votes

No need to link my op.gg to me, I know my own match history.

Yes, I play a lot of TT. My winrate has also been sitting far below 50% for a long time, even on SR.

DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

it says you are lvl 13 tho

RenownedWheat42Feb 13, 20181 votes

No, I see 57.

DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

maybe it is bugged...

rework trundleFeb 13, 20181 votes

I guess arams count since it has a mmr tied to it? I'm on a 6 win streak rn, all games solo.

DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

don't play aram so wouldn't know

The Minion huntFeb 13, 20181 votes

I'm sure the high elo players agree, those challengers gotta be like woot riot liked me.

DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

read carefully. I am talking about normals, not ranked. Ranked is different because there isn't as much variance in player skill game to game

ChargeItDownMidFeb 13, 20181 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

No, you are jumping back and forth between two models which simply do not work with each other which is why you are confusing yourself. The model you are trying to describe is a fair elo model which tries to make matches as even as possible. However, you have the idea that the game is rigged entrenched in your psyche. Every time you try to add a rigged element into your model, it completely falls apart.

Confusing myself? HOW? seriously.. how?.I already explained mathematically how the system works, bridging both posts in detail. I think you are starting to take this personal...and trying to attack me?

Look you can go look at the bloody MMR rating Lol page yourself if you still don't understand it. I'm not pulling this crap out of my butt:

https://support.riotgames.com/hc/en-us/articles/201752954-Matchmaking-Guide

So lets take a diamond 1 player and run him through your model. On his first game, he gets silver and bronze players and loses so his mmr drops to diamond 2. His MMR is lower than before but still in the top 1% of the playerbase. That means that for his next game, your model would still place him with bronze and silver players abeit better ones so lets say he now has 3 silvers and 1 bronze on his team against 5 golds. His team would still lose due to your reasoning that 5 golds are more likely to win and this streak will continue for many games until the player's mmr drops far enough that his allies can compete with the enemy team during laning.

There is no "enforced" 50% to this model. You trying to add one is causing the rest of your model to fall apart. Riot is not trying to rig matchmaking. Doing so would just skyrocket queue times and cause them to lose their playerbase.

sigh... 50% win rate does not mean "win lose then lose one". I am not explaining basic Stats to you though

The changes I am talking about are for normals, not ranked. also, Riots attempt to make "fair teams" is to use median MMR across both teams and match them that way.I already explained why this doesn't work

ChargeItDownMidFeb 13, 20181 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

didn't even open the link, did you? Lets take a look. I'll show you how you are just trolling and then stop wasting my own time:

**FROM RIOT'S SUPPORT PAGE: **

First, the system places players in the appropriate pool - which is basically the queue (normal, ranked, solo/duo, ranked 5-man team, etc.). Once in the pool, the system starts trying to find matches, with the goal of creating teams that are both made up of players with roughly equal skill and** have a fair chance of winning.**

Fair chance to win, hum? Both teams having a "FAIR" chance to win. Mathematically speaking, that is both teams having 50% win rate all matches... lets move on

Initially, the system will only match players with similar MMR. As time passes, the system will very slowly broaden the MMR range it considers acceptable.

Here we can see that all players are matched with certain discrepancies in their MMR, meaning a low pop bracket, such as diamond, will more often than not be paired with lower elos, if we take the 20-80 ratio into account

When a team is first made, the past performances of the members in solo queue will impact the starting MMR of the team. Once the team is established, the team's MMR exists independently from each of the member’s solo queue MMR.

Lastly, here we can see how everything I was explaining you about how previous games impact your odds to lose or win the next game. I'll be explicit:

Past performance (i:e whether you won or lost last game) impacts the mmr of your team (that means how much "weight" you give to the teams MMR --- that means chances of getting carried by a teammate or not in case it isn't clear bud)

Secondly, we see the teams get a median MMR rating as I explained to you numerous times. these teams composition will change depending on how much you win or lose. As I said before, MMR only measures your wins and loses, NOT SKILL explicitly!, therefore if you are a high elo player, on normals were MMR variance across teams is so high, most matches become stompy since you either have a decisive advantage or have terrible teammates ( goign back to the weight argument in case it is hard to follow)

.

Now, I have explained how the system is "rigged" as clearly as possible, using Riot's own explanation for how matchmaking works. I obviously don't expect you to concede I am right. I have understood you are the kind of person that likes to "win" arguments at all cost. You probably will say I am confused, my argument has holes, or some other unsupported argument to try to "win". Therefore, this is where I part. I know by now you have understood what I was trying to explain to you -- at least in part-- I will settle for that.

ChargeItDownMidFeb 13, 20181 votes

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DeadUnbornFeb 13, 20181 votes

yep, called it

KottenkandyFeb 14, 20181 votes

It is rigged.. only time i lose is with an afk on my team and i have one 50% of the time and win every 5v5. riot inserts afk or disconnects intentionally if it looks like their predetermined outcome isn't going in their favor. they will ensure the lose for you. the enemy never has a disconnected player or afk.