Well fuk me for mentioning Sejuani's 55% win rate (number 1 for the past few months). And fuk me for bringing up her almost 75% ban rate (Also number 1 and goes up every day). I don't know how you judge the health of a champion, but these numbers don't seem healthy to me.
GaleWinUnleashed25 votesWinrates alone aren't reliable, yes. But combined with enough other data, it can be indicative of a problem. Sejuani is a bit strong right now, and will probably receive some more changes soon.
JevelFaithful2 votesThis. I also think they said that a stable win rate below/above a certain point (I think it was 45-55 or 40-60), it usually means there's a problem with the champion. Either major numeric imbalances or design flaw. Again it's just a big warning flag and not a proof.
Fauxfire15 votesThey aren't for champions who have huge mastery curves like 
but in cases where champions consistently have 55%+ winrates and block out other usually popular picks like the old Kha'Zix, Tristana and Lucian's ADC reign, pre-season Warwick and 5.2 Ahri (only recent examples), it tends to mean maybe there's something wrong..
Cloud27314 votes[{quoted}](name=Talon for Prez,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=gGtInmBy,comment-id=0000,timestamp=2015-04-14T18:26:37.414+0000)
They aren't for champions who have huge mastery curves like
You lost all credibility at Zed
Spacesuit Spiff19 votesOnce upon a time, Zed was actually considered difficult and only worthwhile if you were good at him. Now, he's strong in all sorts of ways you don't have to be good to access. There's a reason he wasn't complained about before the mana changes.
blujadajhdja1 votesWell, people were complaining about him right before his numbers got slightly lowered and they added huge safety to his ult. I feel like if they put his old ult back, people would be happier.
Shinjusuke3 votesPeople started complaining about him when Athene's got the nerf that made it no longer a "buy this item and your mana literally is irrelevant" item. Which made a ranged energy user with consistent laning and harass far more enticing.
He was considered "fine" by the community for a very long time between his ult rework and the athene's change. The inability to keep up with Zed's skill spam when your'e playing a mana-restrictive mage in mid is what caused his spike in hate, which is why the spike in hate is a stupid one.
Not saying Zed couldn't use nerfs (seriously, all he needs is his passive to not be so effective for farming waves. Literally just that and he's fine), I'm saying people pretend Zed has issues because they're butthurt they can't be a mana-using champion and spam all they friggin' want. That's the core issue, not Zed's kit.
Takeuchi 171 votes^^pretty much this. I picked up zed when he was considered a "not so great pick" and then all of a sudden people just started hating on him out of no where.
Cloud2731 votes[{quoted}](name=Takeuchi 17,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=gGtInmBy,comment-id=000000000000000000000000,timestamp=2015-04-15T16:19:07.656+0000)
^^pretty much this. I picked up zed when he was considered a "not so great pick" and then all of a sudden people just started hating on him out of no where.
He was always OP
blujadajhdja1 votesIf you think that, you probably weren't here very long.
PL551 votesBelieve it or not, around the time when boards came out, common opinion was Zed was the perfect example of an assassin.
blujadajhdja1 votesPeople complained way before that, then stopped, and then the situation you stated happened. As far as I can see, the passive isn't that much of a problem (maybe reduced damage to minions with his E so he can't waveclear as well). Generally, no one likes Zed's ult. When he ults you, you know that you probably can't kill him (unless you have some chain CC ready), the best you can do is trying to not die. Other than the farming, his safety makes him un-fun to play against.
Chespin20131 votesfinally someone who knows what they are talking about ppl just don't ever remember the mana regen nerf to athenes at all
insaiyanbacca5 voteshe said mastery curve, sure zed is easy to pick up but to be able to pull off the really cool things that are awesome to do you have to dedicate time to learning.
AMYS GRAVE5 votesZed has a low skill floor, but a high skill ceiling. An important distinction to make.
Rinky Dinky3 votesImplying Zed takes no skill.
Salt confirmed
Shinjusuke1 votes*Old, old, OLD Kha'zix.
As in release Kha'Zix. As in "W applied passive" Kha'zix. The overwhelming majority of Kha's nerfs were just a stream of stupid hate-fueled bullshit, not legitimate nerfs that had to happen.
Spacesuit Spiff13 votesWinrate can have some funny fringe cases (if Rammus got to 80% I'd say it's just because he's only getting picked into comps like 
etc). Sej isn't one of these cases.
Silent Pace8 votes[deleted]
Cloud2735 votes[{quoted}](name=Silent Pace,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=gGtInmBy,comment-id=0002,timestamp=2015-04-14T18:46:42.878+0000)
What about
?
He still needs more buffs IMO. His win rate has gone up slightly but not much.
pWasHere1 votesI think he is extremely powerful in the right hands.
I swear to God he is going to get overbuffed and once people actually learn how to use him he is going to be a huge problem, like pretty much every other recent release.
With the way his kit is, if his win rate is over 50 I would consider that an issue. Same with Azir.
Respakt2 votesAzir was also extremely bugged in addition to having a high skill cap
junglerboy167 votesWin-rate isn't a reliable indicator of a champion's strength... on its own. in combination with pick rate, ban rate, and statistics like "picked with" and "picked against", win rate paints a very full picture of a champion's strengths, weaknesses, and percieved strength in the eyes of players.
Sejuani is categorically OP since she has a very high win-rate as well as combined pick and ban rate (her pick rate is only low because she gets banned 75% of all matches). if she had a 55% win rate for a whole year, but only showed up in 3% of matches, you'd know she is very strong in a select few situations. As it stands though, she is good in almost all situations right now, which is why all her statistics are higher than average.
In contrast, we have somebody like Heimer, who has been in the top 15 highest win rates in the game since his rework over a year ago Heimer is no longer OP though, he is just very good against specific champions (kitable/immobile champions with weak early games), which is reflected by his consistently much lower pick rate of between 3 and 4%, and near non existent ban rate, since he is also quite bad in certain matchups.
Lastly, we have Amumu. He has a higher pick rate than Sejuani with an almost identical win rate, but a fractional ban rate. This is because he is a very popular, relatively easy to use champion, but can be countered by somebody with the knowhow to counter jungle and set him behind, which is why his win rate declines the higher rank you look at.
Slamurai Jack7 votesI don't fucking get it. Whenever I mention that 
has both an absurdly high pick and win rate for several months, I get downvoted quite heavily. Lucian after his "nerfs" and Tristana never reached the level of popularity and success that Jinx has at this moment, and those 2 champions were qq'ed about for months on end until Riot nerfed them patch after patch. Why is Jinx so special?
Shinjusuke2 votesBecause she has fans.
Having fans makes your champion immune to legitimate balancing, that's all there is to it. I mean there's literally no other way to explain it beyond Riot balances champions as a popularity contest.
Hell, multiple times Morello himself has very publicly stated he would've nerfed or reworked Lee Sin ages ago if RIOT wasn't scared of backlash from his fanboys. I can literally find you exact quotations of this statement.
Jinx is popular because she's essentially a non-boobilicious "powerful woman" who's pretty much the Joker. It's a character a lot of people like. As such, she's slower (or immune) to getting nerfs. Several other champions are the same way. Zed (speaking as a Zed fan/player, I might add), Lee Sin, Vi, and Thresh (my go-to support pick, I might add) just to name a few. Being popular gives a champion privileges. Arguing otherwise is outright naive, at this point, because Riot can and will continue to prove it's true as long as they're a popular game.
You can make all the arguments you want for how "balanced" your way-too-popular pick is, but that doesn't make you right. It makes you blind.
TotalJerk3 votesBut Lee Sin got nerfed 3 times in Season 4.
GundayMonday3 votesI have a 90% win rate against Sejuani. Am I OP? (She has hard counters. The playerbase hasn't learned them yet)
Cloud2731 votesI have a 90% win rate against Sejuani. Am I OP? (She has hard counters. The playerbase hasn't learned them yet)
You don't get it do you. It's not just about checks and counters. It's about her overall performance (not just in ranked but also in normals). Sejuani is a solid pick at all levels of play. She doesn't really counter anyone, but there's no one who counters her either because she can easily dash over a wall or slow someone who's chasing her.
GundayMonday1 votesTry playing Trundle against her. Look at what his ultimate does. Buy a blade of the ruined king and use the active on her as well. You have now clicked two buttons and made her worthless as a tank.
(Best Sejuani NA here talking from experience. I have over 4k games with her. She DOES have hard counters that completely shut her down)
Rebonack3 votesIf a champ has a low win rate and a high pick rate either
That second one is usually due to the champion crushing things they counter really hard, or snowballing like crazy when they're ahead. When such a champion happens to do well, opposing players often feel like there's nothing they can do about it which in turn leads to cries of OP.
If a champion has a high pick rate AND a high win rate, then it is usually safe to assume that they're significantly more powerful/reliable/flexible than their peers.
hgjkdlsaf jeldvb3 votesfor those of you still using lolking
plat+ games, includes graphs for winrate by gametime, winrate by patch, player experience distribution, winrate by player experience, build data, matchup data, and crucially, it splits up winrates by role.
Win rates can be bad in certain cases. The meta can be unfavorable for a champ. The champ could have a play rate so low, that the data just isn't good, although, even galio has enough games in his respective roles to get a decent idea of where he sits in general (though maybe not at certain player experience levels). The champ could just be bad. In low winrate cases, it's harder to say. If a champ is at the top though, it's because they're the best. Champs that they inherently counter do worse, and champs that counter them are strong. However, the outlier champ is usually the one at the top of the winrates.
The biggest red flag though, is if the winrate is on the rise, and the play rate is as well.
GuiltyGecko3 votesI forget which Rioter said it, but they described win rates as a symptom, and when you notice a win rate skewed in either direction, then you have to diagnose why it's skewed that way. For example, Release Zyra had something stupid like 64 or 67% win rate and had to be hot fixed because she did a crazy amount of damage. Lee Sin is another example. Lee's win rate for a very long time hovered between 45-48%, but he was picked in almost every other game across all elos. Win rates are important to look at, but you have to give them context.
As far as Sejuani goes, I think she gives to much power for how simple she is to pick up. If Sejuani had a flow chart it would be:
Start Here: Are you sitting on the face of a carry? Yes = 1, No = 2
She can be played in a more nuanced way, but this basic pattern has enough power to get most people by. In other words, Seju's current skill ratio is too much power out, for too little skill in.
Poptart Evelynn1 votesI forget which Rioter said it, but they described win rates as a symptom, and when you notice a win rate skewed in either direction, then you have to diagnose why it's skewed that way. For example, Release Zyra had something stupid like 64 or 67% win rate and had to be hot fixed because she did a crazy amount of damage. Lee Sin is another example. Lee's win rate for a very long time hovered between 45-48%, but he was picked in almost every other game across all elos. Win rates are important to look at, but you have to give them context.
As far as Sejuani goes, I think she gives to much power for how simple she is to pick up. If Sejuani had a flow chart it would be:
Start Here: Are you sitting on the face of a carry? Yes = 1, No = 2
- Spam W.
- Q towards them and spam W.
She can be played in a more nuanced way, but this basic pattern has enough power to get most people by. In other words, Seju's current skill ratio is too much power out, for too little skill in.
Zyra got hotfixed because plants took 3 turret shots and riot was like o shit that's broken. Was pretty funny.
GuiltyGecko2 votesI hate to be "that guy" that does fact checking, but before I wrote my post I checked to make sure I got my information correct. This is the following information form that hotfix:
V1.0.0.144 - August 7th Hotfix: General Plant damage for additional plants reduced to 50% from 75% when multiple plants are attacking the same target. Stats Base movement speed reduced to 300 from 310. Grasping Roots Damage adjusted to 60/95/130/165/200 from 60/105/150/195/240. Stranglethorns Damage reduced to 180/265/350 from 200/300/400. Cast range reduced to 700 from 800.
CertainlyT goes on to explain that the reason she was hot fixed was due to her safety and burst damage.
Llanite3 votesTo be precise, 'win rate' is just the mean. To accurately measure 'variability', ones need both mean and variance.
In short, win rate alone would indicate balance issue? Nope Win rate is useless? Nope.
Mikal Pikal2 votesI have heard all the speculation about why win rate isn't important. However, the single most important stat in a given game is nexus killed. So why isn't win rate the single most important statistic to determine the strength of a champ. I can understand that the difference between 48% and 52% might be in insignificant, but at some point win rate must matter.
I mean, people can speculate all they want why a champ has a high or low win rate but there is no way to know if they are right. It may make "sense" that difficult to play champs have a low win rate or FOTM champs have a low win rate b/c noobs play them, but where is anyone's evidence for those assertions? It's not like these win rates are over just a few games either. Over hundreds and thousands of games, why is it not safe to say a champ is overpowered if they have a 60% winrate? 55%?
I am not saying everyone is wrong and I do not know much about statistics as a science, but it is hard for me to understand why it is basically universally accepted that winrate is meaningless. Give me something other than wild speculation why win rate doesn't matter? And please don't say about how champs "feel" like how everyone bitches about Lee Sin. He can suck to play against but is really not OP and his winrate is low. I would like to see a study about his winrate with Lee Sin mains compared to other "mains" being played...THAT would be interesting.
qetzel1 votesChampions can be played at different levels. Consider a mirror match of Lee Sin against Lee Sin, same ELO, same set-up. One has played maybe 20 games of Lee Sin, one has played maybe 100. In this case the Lee Sin who has 100 games is probably going to win - the difference between a good Lee Sin and a bad Lee SIn is large. If the good Lee Sin is unstoppable in the vast majority of his games this suggests that Lee Sin is unbalanced at high levels of play.
If a champion has a high pick rate it suggests that more people new to the champion are playing it. This gives the win rate a negative skew - it is lower than it ought to be. Lee SIn fits this quite well. I chose Lee as an example because people typically whine about him. I personally think he is fine, but whatever...
In the case of Sejuani she has a high pick rate and a high win rate - even people new to the champion are winning more than they are losing. This suggests an imbalance.
Champions with exceedingly low pick rates are typically played by dedicated champion mains only. Win rate is positively skewed and is higher than it ought to be. While pick rate is the easiest cause to see there is a myriad of other factors that determine win rate (including popular matchups, the meta and even player perception - lots of players saw Urgot as a "troll pick" only a month ago and so didn't bother in games with him).
Hope this helps!
Mikal Pikal1 votesMy problem is that I haven't never seen any statistics or actual factual basis for saying that high pick rate means the win rate is artificially low or that pick rate has anything to do with the power of a champion at all. To me, it feels like blind speculation that if a champ "feels OP" like Lee Sin and Leblanc, that they will come up with some reason why that champ is OP in spite of low win rates. Or if the champ "feels okay" like amumu or sej they will come up with some reason why they are not OP in spite of a high win rate. I feel like win rate is under-appreciated because of these blind assumptions, especially considering the sheer volume of matches played with each champion.
I believe the data is there to control for some of this. You could look at each champs win/loss ratio only for players that have played that champ over 30 times or something.
Shinjusuke2 votesBy your own admission, you're not good with statistics: The first step is to accept that pick rate skews win rate. That's just common sense.
Statistically, the harder the champion is, the less likely players are using them to their max potential. As such, the more players pick them, the higher the discrepancy in skill between users of the champion, and as such the amount of players who cannot use them to their max potential exceedingly outweighs the number of players who can.
This is why Qetzels Lee Sin example is an accurate one: He was, until Cinderhulk, literally the most played jungler by a near-30% pick rate margin (oftentimes having a 35+% pick rate while the 2nd most picked jungler had a 7-10% pick rate). Lee Sin isn't nearly as hard as his fanboys pretend, but he's still a mechanically difficult champion compared to most. As such, his win rate would've been skewed negatively by quite a bit. Lee Sin mains who were talented at the champion and had mastered him were likely winning way more than 50% of their games, while everyone who was either bad at the champion or new to the champion would have lower (sometimes way lower) than 50% win rates. The latter group, logically, when he has a 35% pick rate, would vastly outweigh the former, resulting in a negatively skewed win rate that is inaccurately representing the champion's balance state by a potentially large amount.
Thus, win rate is a bad indicator of balance, especially when considered in a vacuum (which, usually, is the only way "win rate defenders" or champion fanboys are willing to look at win rates).
Mikal Pikal1 votesI do not doubt your statements but there are no facts to back them up, just speculation. Pick rate skewing win rate makes sense but may not be true.
Statistically, the harder the champion is, the less likely players are using them to their max potential
These are the statistic I'm looking for, not everyone just assuming this is true without evidence. Why can't we look at higher elo for the win rates? Where are the statistics for winrate on a champ by players who have played that champ many times before?
Lee Sin mains who were talented at the champion and had mastered him were likely winning way more than 50% of their games, while everyone who was either bad at the champion or new to the champion would have lower (sometimes way lower) than 50% win rates.
This is the statistic I'd want to see...not just blind speculation and "common sense." Trust me, I get it, it makes sense to me too, but that doesn't make it true. Maybe more people play him because he was played a lot in LCS but is actually not that good in solo queue which is why his win rate is low. That makes sense too but is the opposite of your assumption.
I am not disagreeing, I am trying to have a discussion. I understand both sides. I don't think win rate is the be all end all, but it is a valid statistic and an important metric. I would like to see someone smarter than I do an analysis of win rates of champs who are being played by their mains. I would find that interesting.
Shinjusuke1 votesThe problem is, you're like the guy who says "Scientific Theories aren't true because they're still just theories". Anyone who isn't willingly ignorant knows Gravity exists. But it's still a theory.
You're doing the same thing. If such statistics existed, balancing wouldn't even need to be a job, it'd simply be a "check the number, is it right?" and that's it.
I'm not sure what you want, I gave you a point-by-point explanation of how statistics trend and influence League's balance state. What you're asking for is outright impossible to provide because it's subjective: People decide what their "main" is, for example.
You're welcome to say "there's no facts to back up" my statements, but frankly then you're adopting the same dogmatic attitude as those who attack theories on the basis that "you can't prove it".
This is how statistics work. This is what League has repeatedly shown to be the trends. This is a logical sequence of thought. What you're asking for requires access to the information of every game ever played by every player in the history of the game, which nobody on these forums can provide and frankly is unnecessary to establish a balance state. You're asking to see number specification for correlations that're plainly seen by anyone with any understanding of trends, which is fine I guess, but it seems like you're just debating for the sake of debating rather than accepting the obvious case in front of you. That's the point when I say "alright, just think what ya want", because nothing more can be gained from the discussion at that point.
Mikal Pikal1 votesThe problem is, you're like the guy who says "Scientific Theories aren't true because they're still just theories". Anyone who isn't willingly ignorant knows Gravity exists. But it's still a theory.
Uhh. Not even close. If you think your speculation about what variables affect win rate WITHOUT PROOF is even close to the certainty regarding other "Theories" such as gravity and evolution you are deluded. Do you honestly believe there is no evidence or facts to support the theory of gravity? That some guy just guessed about it and everyone agreed because it's common sense? No. There must be rigorous testing, experiments, and data before something is considered a scientific theory.
What you have is a hypothesis. I am not saying the hypothesis doesn't make sense or isn't true, I am saying no one has tested it yet most seem to take it as true. For example, your explanation is that higher pick rate but low win rate actually means the champ is better than indicated because more people new to the champ play it, but its "mains" have a much higher win rate. Thus, the high pick rate artificially lowers the overall win rate. That's cool. It makes sense. I could see that. That doesn't make it true. Maybe Lee Sin's low win rate is because he's not that OP and the only reason people thinks hes strong or pick him a lot is because he is played in LCS a lot.
You're welcome to say "there's no facts to back up" my statements, but frankly then you're adopting the same dogmatic attitude as those who attack theories on the basis that "you can't prove it".
I completely disagree. The theory of gravity and evolution have both been proven using actual experimentation and observation. They may not know all the details but for all intents and purposes they are proven. Dogmatic would be saying that the Creationists are right because it "makes sense" even if there is no proof. If anything, I am being scientific by demanding some evidence for these claims everyone makes about why win rate is useless. I also never asked for proof but evidence other than mere speculation.
I think you completely missed my point. Moreover, is it really that hard or impossible to come up with some statistic for win/loss ratio of a champion, but only count games where the player has played that champ at least x times? In fact, I think I saw a post with just that information on either these message boards or on Reddit but I can't seem to find it. I would be shocked if this information wasn't available. Why you think such a task is impossible I have no idea.
Carry2 votes[{quoted}](name=Mikal Pikal,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=gGtInmBy,comment-id=000500000000,timestamp=2015-04-14T22:15:52.465+0000)
My problem is that I haven't never seen any statistics or actual factual basis for saying that high pick rate means the win rate is artificially low or that pick rate has anything to do with the power of a champion at all. To me, it feels like blind speculation that if a champ "feels OP" like Lee Sin and Leblanc, that they will come up with some reason why that champ is OP in spite of low win rates. Or if the champ "feels okay" like amumu or sej they will come up with some reason why they are not OP in spite of a high win rate. I feel like win rate is under-appreciated because of these blind assumptions, especially considering the sheer volume of matches played with each champion.
I believe the data is there to control for some of this. You could look at each champs win/loss ratio only for players that have played that champ over 30 times or something.
THANK YOU! I have been saying this for so long...
It is indeed blind speculation, and if you delve into the type of statistics that would actually support/stand against the speculation, you'll see that it is completely unfounded.
Go to champion.gg and you'll find statistics on winrates of champions broken up based on how many games the players have on that champion. You'll see that even with just plat+ lee sin mains with 125+ recent games on Lee, the winrate is still extremely low.
Baron of Bread2 votesI think the problem with Sejuani is that people have forgotten how to deal with the tank junglers since we haven't seen them for a long time. I would have expected people to be using her weaknesses against her by now, but I still haven't seen it in any of my games.
Tibberino2 votesWhat ends up giving champions high winrates are:
This is why Sejuani is strong, because she's a combination of all four of these. She's extremely easy to use, her CC, damage, mobility and ability to soak up enemy damage makes her high impact, she synergizes with other strong picks in the meta, the strong items in the game work well on her, and she got some buff love ( and the current nerfs still haven't brought her in line yet ).
AMYS GRAVE2 votesWin rates aren't an accurate measure of a champion's strength, but they are an indicator to be taken into account with other factors.
Orders1 votes
- Higher pick-rate than Sejuani and almost same win rate.
"I thought they'd never pick me!"
Not to mention I have never seen 
with an under 50% win rate and her pick rate is consistently high.
There's a lot of factors that go into determining a champ's level of power and, having played Sejuani a lot, I can say she is really good at the moment.
JedenVojak1 votesHow I judge the health of a champion is this:
Are they powerful? Are people constantly crying for nerfs? Do they get mostly banned in ranked?
If all these are the case, then the champion is in a good spot. On to buffing the next champion.
General Spacey1 votes
Back in my day, I didnt hear you.
JChaosMaster1 votes100% agree unless they base the win rate off challenger rank only. Even more because we have Hacker bots in normal's meaning you can have a free to pick champ. Say a Broken champ was free to play that week and getting picked by "Hacker bots" so where It would say got picked 100 times by a real player and the Hacker bots pick him 1000 times dragging his win rate down. Riot would thank Mister Broken was FINE because he loses 90% of its games that week