Math and other stuff on PBE ADC changes

Akali is SO HOT··43 votes·14,497 views

If we take the build of item 3031 item 3094 item 3087 and assume the ADC has 150 AD. Because Infinity Edge has +10 AD on PBE, the PBE ADs will get 160 AD.

An auto attack that does not crit does 150 damage on Live and 160 damage on PBE.

An auto attack that crits does: Live: 150 * 2.5 = 375 physical damage PBE: 160 * 2 = 320 damage = 256 physical damage + 64 true damage

A target with 50 armor takes 66.67% physical damage. An auto attack that does not crit does: Live: 150 * 0.6667 = 100 physical damage

An auto attack that crits does: Live: 375 * 06667 = 250 damage PBE: (256 * 0.6667) + 64 = 234.67 damage On PBE this is a 6.13% reduction in damage for critical strikes

A target with 100 armor takes 50% physical damage. An auto attack that does not crit does: 150 * 0.5 = 75 physical damage

An auto attack that crits does: Live: 375 * 0.5 = 187.5 damage PBE: (256 * 0.5) + 64 = 192 damage On PBE this is a 2.4% increase in damage

A target with 200 armor takes 33.33% physical damage. An auto attack that does not crit does: 150 * 0.3333 = 50 physical damage

An auto attack that crits does: Live: 375 * 0.3333 = 125 damage PBE: (256 * 0.333) + 64 = 149.33 damage On PBE this is a 19.4% increase in damage

A target with 300 armor takes 25% physical damage. An auto attack that does not crit does: 150 * 0.25 = 37.5 physical damage

An auto attack that crits does: Live: 375 * 0.25 = 93.75 damage PBE: (256 * 0.25) + 64 = 120 damage On PBE this is a 36.5% increase in damage


So far it seems that squishies will be taking slightly less damage than they are now against ADCs while ADCs are able to do a lot more damage against higher armor targets. However, this does not take into account that with the same build the ADCs on PBE will have 100% crit chance while the ADCs on live will only have 80% crit chance.

Factoring in crit chance, an ADC that attacks 5 times would deal a total damage of:

Target with 50 Armor: Live: 1100 damage PBE: 1173.33 damage On PBE this is a 6.67% increase in damage

Target with 100 Armor: Live: 825 damage PBE: 960 damage On PBE this is a 16.36% increase in damage

Target with 200 Armor: Live: 550 damage PBE: 746.67 damage On PBE this is a 35.76% increase in damage

Target with 300 Armor: Live: 412.5 damage PBE: 640 damage On PBE this is a 55.15% increase in damage


#Important Notes

So, with the same build, on PBE the ADC is doing less damage with a single auto attack against low armor targets and more damage with a single auto attack against high armor targets. After accounting for the fact that the PBE ADCs will have 100% crit chance compared to 80% on live, the PBE ADCs will be doing the same or more damage to all targets after auto attacking them a few times. Factoring in the Last Whisper changes as well, it will still be roughly the same damage for low armor targets and the increase in damage against high armor targets will be slighlty lower for the PBE ADCs.

However, you must realize now that ADCs on PBE can no longer rush IE because both of it's passives are completely useless without any crit chance which puts them at a large disadvantage compared to the Live ADCs that have the luxury of being able to get it right away. Also, PBE ADCs can't get an additional zeal item without wasting a lot of the stats as they will already have 100% crit chance will Live ADCs will not. This build for the PBE ADCs is 700 gold more expensive which is a pretty big deal. This could also potentially be a healthy balancing lever for the game as we can now assume that ADCs will always be critting after 3 items so there won't be as many jank situations where an ADC is getting 20 crits in a row or only 2 crits out of 40 auto attacks.

Putting the passive from IE down to 10% or 15% instead of 20% would be a good choice as it would guarantee that ADCs would now be doing less damage to low armor targets over multiple auto attacks rather than roughly the same and then would still allow them to do more damage against higher armor targets.

37 Comments

Blåbæret14 votes

The problem is that ADCs really didn't need a buff vs. tanky targets. Tanks already die to a few autos.

Marothennan4 votes

{quoted} Tanks already die to a few autos.

Video? Rageblade Jhin doesn't count

SB Arneeman9 votes

You don't need a video for that, a fullbuild crit ADC shreds through anything.

Marothennan4 votes

Video?

SB Arneeman9 votes

Watch one lategame fight man, is it so hard

Marothennan4 votes

I want to see what you claim. An ADC killing a tank in a few auto attacks, not the entire team focusing a tank and killing him in a few seconds.

SB Arneeman6 votes

Not literally ''a few autos'' but even the tankiest champs die in a few seconds to a fullbuild adc lategame.

Shinjusuke2 votes

Why provide evidence when you can circlejerk a narrative that substantiates what everyone wants to believe, amirite? :^)

I hate the state of ADCs as much as the next guy on the board, but being asked for a simple amount of evidence to substantiate a frankly outrageous claim isn't that unreasonable of a request.

Backpeddling when an extreme hyperbole is being called out doesn't justify uncessary downvotes.

SB Arneeman3 votes

He's just stubborn if he asks for evidence for something literally everyone that plays this game knows

Blåbæret4 votes

[{quoted}](name=SB Arneeman,realm=EUW,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=QhF62fJb,comment-id=000400000000,timestamp=2018-05-02T18:15:04.196+0000)

You don't need a video for that, a fullbuild crit ADC shreds through anything.

This.

ChaddyFantome4 votes

{quoted}

The problem is that ADCs really didn't need a buff vs. tanky targets. Tanks already die to a few autos.

agreed

Baka Red1 votes

Could you maybe define "a few" for us? Is it 2? 4? 6? 8? or maybe even 10 or more? ;) Sorry, you don't really have to. I just kinda hate vague expressions like that and I guess that is also Morthennan's problem with that line - Vague expressions are just like opinions. To me "a couple" sounds like 2 or 3, "a few" sounds like 4 or 5. I somehow doubt a tank dies to 4 or 5 basic attacks. Vague expressions are bad, okay? They cause misunderstandings and negative feelings. :)

On the other hand, the math of the op is not vague or an opinion. Good job with that. AirKingNeo reached similar results in another thread at about the same time using many of the same numbers even.

I hope the OP doesn't mind I borrow some of his text: "A target with 200 armor takes 33.33% physical damage. An auto attack that does not crit does: 150 * 0.3333 = 50 physical damage

An auto attack that crits does: Live: 375 * 0.3333 = 125 damage PBE: (240 * 0.333) + 60 = 140 damage On PBE this is a 12% increase in damage"

So lets take a tanky guy with only 2k health and that 200 armor. On live the tank would go down with 2k / 125 autoattacks if they all crit (20% still would not) = 16 autoattacks. On PBE the tank would go down with 2k / 140 autoattacks (all crit) = 14 autoattacks.

Those numbers are more than "a few" imo, but you clearly have different opinion about that. "A few" after all is a vague expression that does indeed mean different things for different people. For me it means 4-5, for you something like fifteen.

PS: Yes, that math does not include a Last Whisper or it's upgrade, but on the other hand the tank guy does only have 2k health. PPS: Did I mention I hate vague expressions like "a few". Well, I do! :)

Disembark13 votes

I think Riot didn’t want to decrease their DPS by much, but decrease the burst on a single auto.

However re-tuning the true damage is probably correct.

Mordepool12 votes

Doesn't seem like much of a delay in power spike at all

Marothennan4 votes

Except for the fact that the items got mroe expensive?

34112354565210 votes

[{quoted}](name=Akali is SO HOT,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=QhF62fJb,comment-id=,timestamp=2018-05-02T06:10:06.969+0000)

So, with the same build, on PBE the ADC is doing less damage with a single auto attack against low armor targets and more damage with a single auto attack against high armor targets. _**After accounting for the fact that the PBE ADCs will have 100% crit chance compared to 80% on live, **_the PBE ADCs will be doing the same or more damage to all targets after auto attacking them a few times. Factoring in the Last Whisper changes as well, it will still be roughly the same damage for low armor targets and the increase in damage will be slighlty lower for the PBE ADCs.

Putting the passive from IE down to 10% or 15% instead of 20% would be a good choice as it would guarantee that ADCs would now be doing less damage to low armor targets over multiple auto attacks rather than roughly the same and then would still allow them to do more damage against higher armor targets.

I am glad your post is for the most part consistent with mine in the end results. The yasuo style double crit buff is infact counteracting the crit multi decrease to leave ADCs in a power neutral compared to live. Also happy that your math didnt have opposite results as some idiots in my post were claiming my math was "fiction".

I agree that IE should be put down to 10% or if they want to keep it at 20% then IE crit needs to be reverted to 20% flat. I disagree with you stating that stacking zeal items is inefficient. How is going from 80% crit in a 3 item ( ie shiv RFC) to 100% an efficiency decrease? Thats absurd frankly. Thats like saying "hey guys lets buff zeal items to give 70% crit each, but hey itll be an efficiency decrease cause getting two of them will overcap you at 140%" like thats an absurd statement. On live they get 20% +30%+30% and on pbe they get 0% +60%+60% , it doesnt matter if you are overcaping 20%, its still absurd. Either way I upvoted you and this issue really needs to get looked at. The goal of the update wasnt to delay ADC god mode by a simple 500 gold, the goal was the reduce their dmg done to squishies while keeping their dmg vs tanks still powerful. Rereading Riot Axe's original post does make me sad because he made all these adamant declarations about wanting to reduce bot lane power and wanting other roles to be able to compete with the carry potential but here we are with their power level being near even just slightly delayed but not really cause their lifesteal is cheaper and they gain 10 AD from IE.

SirLapse1 votes

Itemizing damage first has been the priority for a very long time. You will have no crit chance to fall back on or any compensation damage from the original IE purchase and will be forced into weaker attack speed options like Runaan's to make it past laning phase, trying your best to not actually commit to fights. This primarily affects crit-based ADCs which are the most relevant when speaking about IE.

Things like Draven can instead ignore this and will in turn become stronger because the enemy will be wasting stats to get to their 3-item power spike, unlike live where you spike basically at 2 items and finish the spike with even bigger burst at 3 items. Any ADC scaling off of crit will essentially receive a huge nerf to their game tempo and therefore become that much harder to use for scaling into the game.

What it looks like to me from these changes on the math is that ADC DPS has been nerfed while the actual burst portion hasn't really been nerfed. In the end it just means all of the champions that rely on crit will be absolute garbage and things like Lucian, Draven, Ez, etc. who do not go for these now inefficient builds will steamroll their competition. I have no issue with nerfing ADC DPS if they're going to keep that pseudo-burst, because the damage evens out until you get the item effects up again, but this introduces an unintentional weakness (or so I believe) where the lack of peel or positioning isn't the only ADC weakness -- lack of Shiv and/or RFC effects being up will mean you're less capable than another ADC who does not need it or has it prepped up. Doesn't seem like a fun mechanic even if in theory it's more balanced.

Looking at it from the "coin flip bot lane," this actually makes it severely worse when looking at the factors presented. If ADCs early had less power but were actually SAFER TO PLAY without needing mega or hyper supports, then changes like these wouldn't be that questionable.

saltran4 votes

Math + a proper analysis? Thanks god.

PB4UAME8 votes

Says the person posting and spamming other similar posts that the math is fiction and that people are just biased and responding out of that; instead of recognizing the possibility that many of us LoL players and Boards posters actually use a great deal of math in our careers and can spot RIOt's lying bullshit every time they supposedly "nerf" ADCs (here's a hint, every single systemic changes to ADCs RIOT has ever done has been a net buff. they have not one time in all of League's history actually systemically been made weaker. Not a single time, and I've been here since just after the beta ended.) by going through the proposed maths ourselves.

Leonerdo4 votes

Various additional maths: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kSJtuthaWveNgnp3E5c5k4nr4yihXlXr815vwH-OlLQ/edit#gid=0

The biggest conclusion is that Yasuo is nerfed. :)

ChaddyFantome3 votes

{quoted}

Various additional maths: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kSJtuthaWveNgnp3E5c5k4nr4yihXlXr815vwH-OlLQ/edit#gid=0

The biggest conclusion is that Yasuo is nerfed. :)

God bless !

Puppet33r4 votes

Why does everyone completely neglects to mention the price changes. It is the real killer for this double zeal + ie build. All zeal items cost 200 more and ie costs 300 more. Which is pretty substantial by itself. Add a really awkward build path for ie into this equation and this build becomes pretty much not viable in the current meta. As far as this build is concerned rito did what they promised:ie+zeal item is much harder to get and is weaker. No more 2 items spike.

But... then there is this 1 item spike that is cropping up with everyone on boards blissfully ignoring it which is this monstrocity:item 3508. With its new passive Lucian, Kaisa and Varus will be destroying everything after 10 minutes.

Akali is SO HOT2 votes

If you read my post I specifically mentioned that in the notes

Puppet33r2 votes

You mentioned it and yet you didn't account for it at all. You are saying that despite increased cost it should still be way weaker then before. New item 3031 is obviously meant to be what item 3089 is right now. An item that you will never build first and an item that you will only decide to build when you are ahead and know for a fact that you will be getting ~1300 gold before each back. And if you make the decision to go for it and then you will lose next teamfight it will be pretty much over for you.

So no, infinity edge is definitely not the thing to be worried about with the next update. The scary changes are the buffed up defensive ad items that will turn divers into assassins again and reworked item 3508 that will spawn multiple mini-katarinas and instantly by itself bring back the problem of a way too early power spike for certain adcs.

TwinkiePro3 votes

I've been testing twitch with the new stormrazer and item 3508 , adding other items like item 3085 item 3031 item 3124 item 3072 For the hell of it ive also been taking lethal tempo and presence of mind.

When twitch pops from stealth and starts doing his shit with R, he gets over 650 AD and 3.4 atk speed. ADC late game is gonna be scary, but at least the early game seems less oppressive.

Daddy Ants2 votes

{quoted}

I've been testing twitch with the new stormrazer and item 3508 , adding other items like item 3085 item 3031 item 3124 item 3072 For the hell of it ive also been taking lethal tempo and presence of mind.

When twitch pops from stealth and starts doing his shit with R, he gets over 650 AD and 3.4 atk speed. ADC late game is gonna be scary, but at least the early game seems less oppressive.

That's a stupidly unrealistic build for a real game

With how fast games are, that's an extremely expensive and unrealistic build.

TwinkiePro1 votes

{quoted}

That's a stupidly unrealistic build for a real game

With how fast games are, that's an extremely expensive and unrealistic build.

Of course it's expensive, it's 6 items with no boots. That's how far ahead I've been getting. If you went this build and instead of storm razor, Essence, or rageblade got boots instead, its only 1200-1300 more than his standard build. His standard build was nerfed in cost by 800 gold anyways, so its realistically not that expensive. Considering how easy it is to farm as ADC, I don't see the cost as a negative.

Big Lincoln2 votes

u forgot to account for stormrazor wukong, which puts them at a 100% decrease in damage

Doozku1 votes

*essence reaver jayce

Hópe2 votes

You should probably give credit to the person who did the calculations... I can see traces of copy and paste

Akali is SO HOT5 votes

?

Kilanost1 votes

[{quoted}](name=Akali is SO HOT,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=QhF62fJb,comment-id=00060000,timestamp=2018-05-02T19:40:36.867+0000)

?

Zeal items are super efficient now in every scenario except max build. Why? Because you can get 100% crit with rapid fire Canon, IE, and zeal which is 1400ish gold cheaper than finishing your zeal item and spend that on a bf sword or a LW. In fact the end result is that you get to still have 100% crit but all your other power spikes get pushed forward by 1400 gold. What about the attack speed? Likely less of a factor considering most adcs don't get to attack for long periods in combat without repositioning. The extra attack speed ends up being way less valuable than the extra ad from a bf sword or the ad plus pen of a LW.

JackMcSnipeyz2 votes

Good post, i agree, if the math is right the IE passive should be nerfed to 15% damage conversion for a start.

Other than that dont ignore the lack of efficency of IE as a first item, the price increases of all zeal items and IE which further pushes the marksmen powerspike time. Take the changes as a whole.

Pika Fox2 votes

Even if your maths are correct, theres no reason to nerf the passive from 20% to 15 or 10. Youre assuming over 5 auto attacks and 3 items. The changes were targeted at 2 items and only a couple autos.

The Goodest Boy2 votes

This was actually informative and easy to follow. Thank you for doing the work and giving us this important info, sir!

So, all of the numbers, along with the item builds and playstyles considered, would you consider these PBE changes to be an overall nerf to your average ADC, or a buff? Or neither in particular?

Not attempting to argue, just interested to hear your mathmatically informed decision.

Have a nice day!

MadNoff1 votes

Same comment I left in that other guy's post on ADC math. You present your argument in a much more logical fashion than him, but like his post, I am uncomfortable with the operations involving probability. It is too simplified (too many assumptions!!), ignores too many variables (including time!!!!) and disregards the population/sample sizes as well as their efficiency! If I were to present this to my boss it would be disregarded as an "eyeball guess/maybe who knows", not a mathematically/statistically sound model.

THAT BEING SAID, I recognize that to accurately justify this argument would be very demanding and require extensive data and fairly complex statistical modeling techniques.

So for an "educated guess", I would err towards your argument, ceteris paribus (yes, I know, I know..a very long-winded way of saying I sorta agree).

Nausicäa 1 votes

Riot is absolutely fucking retarded. There nothing else to say at this point. Shit changes after shit changes.

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