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Why do I keep hard winstreaking and loss streaking in ranked?

coreym11·8/2/2019, 2:31:03 AM·2 votes·1,322 views

When I play ranked, I go through cycles of hard winstreaking or hard loss streaking. I play good regardless but the major difference is when I am on a winstreak I barely have to try and the team practically carries it's self. Even though we don't use chat we know what we all have to do and a really coordinated and know what eachothers pings mean and all the games end within the 25 minute mark.

When I am in a loss streak my efforts don't seem to matter at all. In the first 10 minutes of the game at least 2 lanes have died 5+ times and the game ends within the 25 minute mark but the game is practically over at 15. Although i'm the only one doing alright I can't 1v5 and I can't out split push their 5 man mid when they are all fed. All we need to do is hold tower but people get caught out at and die so there are too many of them for me to hold the turrets alone.

Is this just a coincidence? I am climbing and have gone from bronze 3 to promos for gold 4 in less than 150 games but ever since losing my promos to get into gold I keep losing games. Every single game the enemy has gotten first blood and I am fighting a up hill battle since the games starts. I keep having to try to carry 4 other people who are just feeding, have 400 ping, or just straight up afk.

3 Comments

Zezilian8/2/2019, 8:55:14 AM1 votes

We all have those streaks. What matters, is that you make 10% (+10% your lane enemy) of players base and in even conditions your performance ultimately will decide how high you will climb. If you consistently can make yours 10% > your lane enemy 10%, you will climb even if you have losing streaks.

DeathBurst8/2/2019, 9:36:04 AM1 votes

We're in the same boat, I'm currently Gold1 trying to get my promos for Plat, so I know the feel. Keep grinding and you'll do it in the end. :)

But to get to the point of your post...

Is this just a coincidence?

Most likely, yes. Losses are perfectly normal, and loss (or win) streaks are probably partly coincidence partly biases in human memory.

One important thing to note is that the matchmaking tries to gives you fair games (as in, games that you are as likely to lose as to win) as fast as possible, even before your actual Rank is where it should be at. This is compensated by LP gains/losses so that, if your Rank is too low, it will climb up even with just 50% winrate.

This is a bit complex, so an example: Bob is currently Ranked Silver3, but the matchmaking determined Bob most likely has a Gold2 level of skills. Bob will be matched against Gold2 players right now, which sounds a bit unfair, but in practice, it's fair games for everyone and Bob will win 30LP and lose 15, so he will still climb even with just 50% winrate. When Bob is Gold4, maybe it'll go down to +25/-17, so he will still climb, but slower. And it will get slower and slower until he reaches Gold2. (Of course, assuming he doesn't improve meanwhile.)

So that's a long way of saying: losing games is GOOD. It's a sign that the system works properly and actually determined your level correctly. You MUST expect to lose as often as you win, because that's what happens when you are given fair games, and getting to your "actual" Rank is a bit of a grind, especially the last division or 2.

A bit more on streaks, though: always having long streaks would be weird, but they tend to happen naturally to some extent. There's a 1 in 8 chances, which is not that low, to get 3 times in a row the same result, assuming the system works properly and no external factor. Add to that tilt/flow effects, after a loss you can get angry or frustrated, play worse because of it and the next loss is even more likely. THEN, add perception biases, when a statistically anomalous streak does happen you're more likely to remember it than when the situation is ordinary.

That's a lot of reasons that accumulate. And I'm sure I'm forgetting some.

Pandemic Punch8/2/2019, 9:42:19 AM1 votes

Because you are where you belong once you cant break these back and forth streaks. It is up to you now to figure out how to CARRY your teams instead of just playing safe and hoping your teammates stop feeding.

You are at the point where you have to take control and CARRY your feeding team mates.