I feel like referencing ADC winrates as a point of understanding balance is especially unreliable

DillyDallyGhosT··2 votes·392 views

Using winrates as a point of reference to understand a champions current level of balance is alread shaky on its own. It's one of those things that serves as a great point of evidence in combination with other factors, but on its own it's not reliable outside of outliers like 55%+ winrates and 40%- winrates.

The thing about ADCs outside of rare cases is, they almost always play in one lane. And they exclusively only play against other ADCs. As a result, this can make their winrates extremely volatile and grossly inaccurate. For example, most champions can be played in several different roles and different lanes and this does impact how often they win and lose and gives you an idea of what their overall power as achampion is since they're being used in so many different ways. This isn't the case with EVERY none ADC obviously but it is true to say that every other class besides ADCs are used in a variety of different ways, roles and purposes whereas ADCs aren't.

This is why pre hotfix graves had a 48% winrate but everyone knew he was overtuned. He was used as jungle somewhat so he is a bit of an exception but you can kind of see my point. Not every OP or overtuned champ will have a 55%+ winrate and I can't remember when a generally acknowledge ADC being OP had a winrate higher than 52%. This isn't exclusive to ADCs either but I mention this because I feel like their class as a special exception because they really only function in one role and have one purpose and this likely has a really whacky impact on their winrates. So with ADCs especially, who knows how accurate a winrate is in terms of defining their power.

I don't know what the purpose of this was honestly. I like turtles I guess?

2 Comments

ValyrianBlade1 votes

I don't think their role has it different than any other role when it comes to win rates.

At the end of the day, each champion has strengths and weaknesses (or at least should have weaknesses) and these group up in teams to become win conditions.

Like anyone else, ADCs have this. Some are strong laners, their win condition is preventing the enemy adc from being relevant in team fights thereby denying the enemy team a lot of damage. Other ADCs are hyper carries, their win condition is scaling to a power spike and providing loads of damage in teamfights. A select few ADCs are good in other ways (Vayne can split push/duel, Kennen provides utility in teamfights, etc...).

So you look at these factors, and look that each player has 4 teammates on their team who are also contributing to your win/loss chance. Which is why a 55% win rate on a champion is so absurdly high (because you individually should only influence 1/5th of the game as 1 of 5 teammates, and somehow that champion is contributing an extra 10% differential [55 win 45 loss] to the result of the game, across all players).

Looking at win rates isn't the be all and end all because of this too. There are too many other factors. Some ADCs may just work better with what champions are strong in other roles. Some may hit their power spikes more consistently. Who knows why. Overall though, it's still a useful thing to look at. If an ADC has a 54% win rate and another has a 46% win rate, you need to ask why this difference is here and if it's acceptable. If ADCs as a whole had over 50% win rates then you'd have to start thinking they're OP because teams with multiple ADCs are winning over teams without extra ADCs. If as a whole they had sub-50% win rates then you'd have to think the opposite.

At the end of the day, win rates and pick/ban rates are not the only stats that matter, but they're important. Especially pick/ban rates. When a champion is picked/banned 5x more than it's fair share, the player base is really sending a message about that champion. Unless the message is "this champion is so much fun to play I don't care if I lose with it" (which would mean it's banned by captains that don't want their allies to pick it), more than likely the message is that, at least somewhat frequently the champion is oppressive and unfun to play against. I think ban rate matters more than win rate, but both are useful and neither (alone or combined) is enough to justify anything. That said, Brand support doing the most damage on the map in every game he plays is an outright on its own point that he's wicked OP and needs some severe nerfs (yes, I had to get that in there).

CoolKnightST1 votes

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