What is the official drop rate? Because when they first came out I got one key fragment every other win. Now I have won approximately 16 matches in a row and not gotten a single fragment. I'm almost certain Riot nerfed the rate, either silently or I missed the memo but it's kind of a nearly useless mechanic if I need 100 wins to get one key done.
Sorry if this sounded ranty, just irritated with the increasing rarity of key fragments out of nowhere.
https://support.riotgames.com/hc/en-us/articles/207884233-Hextech-Crafting-Guide
in particular this section:
The drop rate for key fragments is a curve, not a line. With each fragment you earn, the chance to earn your next one goes down slightly. This number resets roughly every thirty days after you earn your first key fragment.
We wanted to give players who didn't play as frequently a good drop rate for keys, without making it feel like farming was mandatory if you wanted keys.
Note: There's currently a bug which prevents you from earning key fragments if you're playing a champion you don't own. This is unintended, and we're working on a solution.
Redfeenix is right that it is a curve and not a line. However, it IS rarer now than it was upon release. I've kept data on when I get drops and what type of game I was playing (premade, solo, ranked, aram?). Upon release and for the first couple months, I'd get 2 entire keys (6 fragments) in the first 10 wins. Now, after the drop chance reset, I get 1 key fragment within 10 wins or so for the last 2 months. Last month it took 60 wins to get 2 entire keys... that's all i was able to farm out for key fragments. Support said this was normal, and that it's a curve so it's easy at the beginning so casual players can still get keys.
60 wins in a month is NOT casual... but they wouldn't admit that point.
This month I'm sitting at 9 games and just got my 2nd key fragment.
tldr; It is a curve chance not a line. However, you're right. It is rarer now than at release.
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The drop rate decreases with each one you get, but it resets each month, starting from when you got your very first fragment.
This is to help balance out the difference between casual players doing a game or two on the weekends and those who play for hours every day.
