I really don't know how much added pressure champion shards put on new players. (Given you need to get champs up level 5 and then get S ranks for them)
In fact, it actually sounds like they are giving some value to IP to the people who already have everything. (as they really arn't as important as Champs or rune pages.) It would probably be worth Riot's efforts to make IP actually worth something, even after you spent everything on runes and champions. (Part of the reason why I keeps saying IP incentives for playing support won't work, cause everyone may not actually need IP)
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I think rune pages are overpriced in general. I mean, REALLY Riot? Are you THAT greedy?
The general idea behind monetizing like that is to sell convenience and not power. That modal basically assumes that extra pages is a luxury and not a requirement. And while that may be true upwards of maybe 5 pages. the two rune pages you start with, is admittedly not enough to cover all of the basics.
The biggest problem I see with the Rune pages pricing, is that it's not comparable to champion pricing. With champion pricing, you can easily get a lot of cheap champions, and expand pretty quickly. But the IP price of a Rune page is the same as a full price champion, and never changes. An alternative approach may be to scale rune page pricing based on how many you have. Maybe your first rune page is only 3150 IP, and your second 4800 IP. and when it caps out at 6300, you would already have two additional pages that you got for cheep.
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Maybe make it like DOTA where all champs are free
removing the level grind with champions would make smurfing a lot easier. (unless it's an ARAM only smurf, screw those guys) Whether that's actually a bad thing is up for opinion.
Though for purpose of new player experience, it's probably best introduce elements of play slowly. (Including new champions) While a new player may only have a small pool to work with. They will be match with players of similarly small champion pools.