Does Surrendering Save You Time? (Full Mathematical Analysis)

Randomonium··21 votes·2,157 views

People always say they are surrendering in ranked because they "don't want to waste their time." But does surrendering actually save you time in the long run from an LP gain perspective? That's the goal I set out with when I made this video.

If you're just interested in the TL;DR the truth is that if you have a negative win rate or if you lose more LP for a loss than you get for a win then it is pretty much always more advantageous to not surrender. If you have a win rate slightly above 50% or your LP gains for wins are only slightly higher than the amount you lose for loses then it is also pretty much always more advantageous to not surrender. Its only if you have an extremely high win rate or you get a massive more LP from wins than loses that surrendering becomes a better option.

Link to google sheet with the math: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2VX63pRqDaNMjdobF9IVHRxNms/view?usp=sharing

62 Comments

Odriew21 votes

I just don't surrender because learning how to play when behind and adapt to unfortunate circumstances makes you a better player. That said, dealing with an 800 stack nasus and full build kog'maw is probably not going to teach me anything, but I'll try anyway for the sweet sweet LP gains.

Lord Galvatron2 votes

In normals if I feel that my team has no idea what they are doing ill surrender.

In ranked however there is still a chance of the enemy team throwing so it's better to just wait 20 more min and see that happens then to ff and have the chance of being placed with another loss the next game.

Volphi2 votes

[deleted]

Anidan2 votes

Oh, no, sweetheart, no... sometimes surrender really is the best option. I wouldn't say it's in ranked unless they have a lead so big they'd have to unplug their computers for a solid 10 minutes for you to catch up, but in non-ranked then there are times when surrender really is preferable when fun isn't being had by the majority of the team and you're losing by enough.

Volphi1 votes

[deleted]

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

Maybe for you, I prefere to never surrender no matter what. If there is even a slight chance of winning (which is always) I won't surrender.

I don't have to abide to what my team wants. Surrender vote is a democratic system and you can't be forced to vote against your will.

Just because you don't have fun doesn't mean I don't and I will try my best to win.

More like minority system. I don't need to clarify why I called it this.

Volphi1 votes

[deleted]

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

It's miniority system when you have no idea what you are talking about. Democracy isn't only about having the slightest lead. There are many vote's systems that include 2/3 votes to be successful. Not only 1/2.

So 2/5 people preventing a surrender isn't a minority system?

k.

Also, 1/2 = 50%.

Volphi1 votes

[deleted]

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

I am not here to teach you how to read. If you deduced all these conclusion from my post then you have some serious reading issues.

That is what you said. Read your post before you send it.

Volphi1 votes

[deleted]

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

1/2 is a mental shortcut to 51%. It really isn't so hard to deduce.

Stop manipulating. You are discussing completely different matter here. 2/5 would be only, when game ends with surrender at some point and 2 people vote for not surrending, which isn't democracy anymore. People vote to surrender, not to not surrender.

This is democracy system where surrender requires 80% of positive vote to pass. It is majority system, but it can be in many forms. You instantly assumed that majority system is applied everytime votes get higher than 50%. Which is a baseless assumpion. There are many systems which require more than 51% positive votes. Like here for example http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/strata-housing/operating-a-strata/meetings-and-voting/types-of-voting#typesofvotes

Are you done yet?

50% is 51% confirmed.

Volphi1 votes

[deleted]

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

Read again "mental shortcut". Oh wait...

It's okay not everyone can read.

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

And you are one of those people.

So you ran out of arguments and you are trying to derail the discussion now.

Doubtful. I clearly stated my case it's just you two love feigning ignorance.

Anidan1 votes

You're both right, in a sense. It is still a part of a democratic system even if it would require a supermajority, but if it requires an overwhelming amount of approval to get anything passed then it could easily be called out pejoratively as minoritarianism. In this proposed pejorative sense, it is the minority who hold disproportionate power in terms of getting an action passed as they can easily bar the way for said action to meet its requirements of the supermajority vote. The difference, however, is that here you only need 2 (40%) to deny the action to stymie to attempts of the other 3 (60%) in a surrender vote, at which point the 3 (majority) could feel like they're being held hostage by the 2 (minority). An approval of 60%, in this situation is not good enough, as it requires an 80% approval rating for the idea of a surrender to go through, which is a high approval requirement indeed.

Essentially: 2 stubborn people who refuse to surrender can, in a sense, hold the other 3 players on their team in that game prolonged unwillingly. This, in my experience, tends to make teams perform even worse than before because the 3 already clearly don't want to be there but they can't leave without punishment thanks to the minority.

Honestly, in my experience, people who try to "NEVER SURRENDER!" tend to shoot their efforts in the foot more often than pull out any grand victory. You may be willing to continue, but if those 3 want out then you're not likely to have them at their A-game anytime between when you clicked "No" and the time the surrender vote comes up again or the game ends. This isn't even mentioning the people who click "No" just to see their teammates squirm thanks to some form of shallow, selfish vindication on their end. I've seen this from every angle: from the enemy team who wonder why you didn't surrender when we push in several minutes later and end the game anyway, from the teammate being held captive wondering why they think we're going to have a comeback against their late-game comp that got ahead early, from the teammate that kept my team in the game because I thought it was winnable, from the teammate that kept his team in there because they were playing a blame game and I wanted them to sit in the mess they made. Comebacks happen, but they're much rarer when 3/5 of your team aren't even planning to try after a certain point.

(Note: this does not apply to close games wherein people want out just because they don't want a challenge, this is for games that have a team in a very evident lead)

Volphi1 votes

[deleted]

Anidan1 votes

I'm going to put this in very, very plain words: If the majority if your team wants out and the rest of the team doesn't, then it's evident that they're not likely to try very hard after that point, making a comeback even less likely. This has nothing to do with victimizing or calling you selfish--this is a fact. If I want out of a game because I don't see a comeback likely when we're down 3 towers and 10 kills when they have a late-game champion getting fed and making a large impact, then odds are very high I'm going to do the bare minimum to keep them from winning, as are the other 2 most likely. If something happens and it starts to turn around we may try harder, but if it continues to look bleak then we're not going to pretend we're some wide-eyed idealist who thinks every game is winnable because let's be frank here: they're not.

Victimization is often painted on them because of an understandable issue: morale. You may have it, but they evidently don't. When the majority lacks the morale to want to continue, they will not perform at their best and this makes a comeback and victory harder, whether you want to surrender or not. Not everyone is some idealist who is going to try to the bitter end. That's the reality of the situation.

SwiftKitten8813 votes

its not just "time" its "fun". i dont want to be stuck in a game i am 98% positive we are going to lose and the 2% chance we have of winning is going to be a long drawn out painful process, mostly based on luck anyways.

i play this game to have FUN. its a GAME if I'm not having FUN there is no point playing

i mean don't get me wrong.. just because were are guaranteed to lose doesn't mean i just hit "surrender". as long as we are having fun... and my teammates are having fun.. ill play.. even if its a guaranteed loss

i decline surrender votes about 10x more often than i accept (or start) them.

but on the rare occasion if i truly do not want to continue playing the game... i will surrender.

Lauchmelder4 votes

I'm a sadist.

I prefer a painful, unfun but very rewarding win over a stomp. If my team is 10/40 but still hasn't lost more towers than the enemy I much rather try to painfully win than give up.

AirKingNeo4 votes

Here's the math easily.

Game is down 2 to 14? And you lost at 30 minutes? If you surrender at 20, you have 10 minutes.

I, for one, am shocked.

Randomonium1 votes

That's not very useful math though because its not able to predict future events. The math I discuss in this video discusses probability and how to make the best "bet" with regards to surrendering depending on what your win rate and average LP gain/loss are.

AirKingNeo3 votes

See, here's the problem with any counter argument you make.

You've already lost the LP. All surrendering does is save you time.

Randomonium2 votes

There's no way to know that you'll lose at 30 minutes. Your argument is only valid for games that you have played in the past. If you are playing a game where it is 2 to 14 then there is a possibility you will lose at 30 minutes and there is a possibility you'll win at 50 minutes. There's no way to know. However, based on the math I've done I've proven that if you "bet" on not surrendering you will actually come out ahead over a large sample size of games.

Starboyˇ2 votes

have you ever won a game where your team is down 25 kills in the first 20 minutes?

FioraWillCarry2 votes

In season 5.

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

There's no way to know that you'll lose at 30 minutes.

What?

Okay. Remind us that after you get a game with 4 people running mid inting.

Then again, they prob wouldn't want to surrender anyway because they are trolling.

There is a way to know. It's called knowing what early, mid, and late game champions are. Also, measuring skill levels throughout the game and through websites.

Randomonium2 votes

You're speaking about very fringe cases. Many games where people want to surrender are not as bleak as your example. I've had people want to surrender when gold was even just because they got beat in lane. I've also had games where people want to surrender when we're down a couple towers but we outscaled them very hard. I've also had games where we were losing for 50 minutes straight and then we won a massive team fight at baron and take down their base before they respawn due to the death timers.

You literally only have to have a 5% chance of winning the game for it to be worth your time to not surrender. That's what the math shows.

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

You're speaking about very fringe cases. Many games where people want to surrender are not as bleak as your example. I've had people want to surrender when gold was even just because they got beat in lane. I've also had games where people want to surrender when we're down a couple towers but we outscaled them very hard. I've also had games where we were losing for 50 minutes straight and then we won a massive team fight at baron and take down their base before they respawn due to the death timers.

You literally only have to have a 5% chance of winning the game for it to be worth your time to not surrender. That's what the math shows.

What you are arguing is statistics vs statistics at this point. One statistical analysis is not better than the other.

Randomonium1 votes

But you're not arguing statistics. You haven't provided any statistics. I've actually taken the time to prove mathematically that its not advantageous to surrender in most cases. The only evidence you've provided to the contrary is "this one time..." If you want to debate me on pure math and statistics then I'm all for it. Show me mathematically that its better to surrender.

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

But you're not arguing statistics. You haven't provided any statistics. I've actually taken the time to prove mathematically that its not advantageous to surrender in most cases. The only evidence you've provided to the contrary is "this one time..." If you want to debate me on pure math and statistics then I'm all for it. Show me mathematically that its better to surrender.

You consider op.gg not statistics? Winrates? I think something is wrong with you. Go see a psychologist.

All you argued was a one case scenario. I argued a multi-based. You said one statistical analysis covers 95% of games. You think I can take you seriously?

Randomonium1 votes

I think you're the one who needs to see a shrink. You didn't provide any statistics from op.gg. Furthermore, op.gg doesn't have statistics that calculate when it's favorable to surrender. All op.gg can do is give you win rates for certain builds or certain champions. Believe me, I am VERY familiar with EVERY statistical website that relates to league and none of them cover what I cover in the video.

You've got some gross conceptual errors here. What I said is that if you have at least a 5% chance of winning it is not favorable for you to surrender (assuming you have normal win rates and mmr.) My math is sound. If you want to debate me then show me how my math is wrong. Alternatively, link me to these magic stats on op.gg that show you that you should surrender in certain situations.

I honestly doubt you've even watched the video which means you're just arguing in ignorance. Watch the video and then tell me how I'm wrong.

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

All op.gg can do is give you win rates for certain builds or certain champions. Believe me, I am VERY familiar with EVERY statistical website that relates to league and none of them cover what I cover in the video.

It gives out winrates, builds, PREVIOUS builds, estimated mmr, ranking, It tells you how many deaths, kills, assists you had in your previous games, how many games you played with your champion, how many wards you placed, gold income from the games, item builds, winrates for champions specifically, who you have lost against, and etc.

What you also admitted to earlier is not covering counter picks and early/mid/late game champions. Your calculations mean nothing in real application. Real application requires multiple sources of statistical analysis and knowledge.

Randomonium1 votes

None of the stats you mentioned counter any of the math I have provided so that leads me to believe you don't understand my methodology. To try and simplify things I'll use an analogy. The math I used is very similar to the math that gamblers use to determine whether they should fold in certain scenarios. Except instead of figuring out how to maximize money I'm using the equations to figure out how to maximize LP. That's what this math is useful for. To determine whether it is statistically advantageous to surrender (fold) or keep playing (call.) Once you determine whether its statistically advantageous its up to YOU to determine whether you think its worth the risk. I specifically said that in the video. You freaking out because I didn't account for stuff like scaling is proof that you either didn't watch to video or you didn't understand it. This methodology is a starting point for you to make an informed decision, not a black and white answer.

The reason why I did this math is people seem to think the game is over if you're only down a couple kills or towers. Additionally, people seem to think that surrendering saves you time. Both of these beliefs are false. People have gross misconceptions on what is an "unwinnable" game and my goal is to give people some real math that can make their decisions logical rather than purely emotional.

Like I said, if you want to use some math or statistics to show how my methodology is wrong then I would greatly appreciate it. This is my first attempt on this topic and I'm sure there are ways I can improve the analysis. However, if all you're here to do is insult me then please just go away.

rtbf2216514121 votes

{quoted}

Like I said, if you want to use some math or statistics to show how my methodology is wrong then I would greatly appreciate it. This is my first attempt on this topic and I'm sure there are ways I can improve the analysis.

All you are doing is shutting down anyone trying to improve it. You don't want improvement. You want to be right. Do not talk to about improvement when you really don't want improvement. Thanks bye.

Randomonium1 votes

Spoken like someone who has no useful advice and just likes to insult people. I asked for any worthwhile input from you multiple times and each time you provided nothing except insults. Don't pretend like you actually would have ever helped.

AirKingNeo4 votes

Sir, I know when a game is over. If my team stops doing anything on the map for 10 minutes and the opponent instead gets 2 dragons and 5 turrets, the game is over.

Randomonium1 votes

And what if it isn't that extreme? What about games that are in the gray area? How do you determine how to objectively surrender in those games? The truth is that you make an emotional decision, not one that is based in logic or math. That's what this video does. It gives you concrete information to help you make an informed decision. And the results say that as long as you have around a 5% chance to win then its statistically advantageous for you to keep playing (assuming you have normal win percentage and mmr.)

In the future I'll do a video that takes data from Riot's API to determine how often teams ultimately win when they have a gold disadvantage at 20. With that data I can give you a concrete "go/no go" test that will help you determine whether or not its statistically favorable to surrender based on how much of a gold disadvantage you have.

AirKingNeo2 votes

If it's a gray area? Then I don't surrender. How to I know when to surrender? What is my logic? It's simple: Do we have a win condition? Have we been proactive in macro play in the past 10 minutes? Is a player AFK or intentionally feeding? What is the opponent's win condition(s) and how to we get around them?

I'm knowledgeable enough about how the game works to know if I've lost or not.

Randomonium1 votes

You might, but most people do not.

FioraWillCarry2 votes

2 to 14 in season 7, it's a done game 99% sure. It's not season 5 where it was still far from over. You have a team that feeds that much, surrender. I hate it when I get some asshole who insists that "we got this, " and refuses to surrender.

Scary Door1 votes

Your argument is only valid for games that you have played in the past. If you are playing a game where it is 2 to 14 then there is a possibility you will lose at 30 minutes and there is a possibility you'll win at 50 minutes.

I don't know, when you've played about 12,000 games you kind of know when a game is winnable. To me, it's all about time saved. Sure, once in awhile I'm wrong and the enemy team throws, but in general if it's 14-2, i know I'm surrendering and in every game where we don't, we lose.

I might win at 50 minutes, but more than likely (based upon my experience) I will lose, so I'm saving 10 to 30 minutes.

Randomonium1 votes

But honestly all it takes is for you to be wrong "once and a while" for you to actually save time. That's the whole point of the video. If you're near a 50% win rate you only have to win less than 3% of the games you would have surrendered in in order for it to actually be advantageous for you to keep playing. Can you honestly say that you have a 97% chance of correctly predicting the outcome of the game.

Furthermore, even if you are able to have such certainty I highly doubt players with less experience can predict the outcome of games as accurately as you. This video is also for those people as well since there are a lot of misconceptions about when a game should be surrendered.

ADepressedLeona3 votes

If the odds of winning basically rely on the enemy team fucking up so substantially (I mean, in games like this, they have to fuck up real bad) in order to win I'd rather just move on.

Especially if I see that they're showing no signs of throwing at all

SwiftKitten882 votes

i tried to watch the video but i cant stand to make it through the entire video so here is my take based on what he saw...

i can assume half of my wins are based on my the enemy team surrendering and half are from be winning. i think that is exaggreating a lot... i win about 60+% of my game and the enemy surrenders on average (if i had to guess) around 35% of the time

as for surrendering... there is a BIG different between ranked and unranked... but since we are talking about gaining and losing LP.. lets stick with ranked..

i have AGREED to surrender in less games than our team has actually surrendered in, (in ranked) only about 10% of the time my team actually surrendered did i personally vote "yes" in a ranked game.

if I'M surrendering in ranked.. there is some SERIOUS issues..

i have voted NOT to surrender (in a ranked game) at least once in each of the following circumstances:

teammate intentionally feeding. 2 teammates intentionally feeding. 1 player on my team afk 2 players on my team are afk THREE players on my team are afk. 20k gold team gold and 30+ kill deficit. completely toxic tilted teammate tries to surrender and i know we are likely screwed but me and there other 3 keep voting no just to piss him off more because he was a jerk to us all game. and I'm not really having fun with the game itself but i get enjoyment out of watching that toxic jerk rage.

these are game i DON'T surrender in.

games i HAVE surrendered in (or afked) are such as this. enemy team is spawn camping our team and refusing to end the game allied teammate following me and spamming taunt. didn't surrender but i quit. teammates constantly pinging map on cooldown for 3+ minutes. enemy team abusing a glitch exploit.

deadlychuck2 votes

Saves me time in normals when they've got a team that looks like this

Yasuo LeeSin Rakan Xayah (insert 5th)

Athenes Lulu2 votes

Often even when you're losing, there's still things to learn.

For example, your teammates might have shit map control to the point where even if you try to shotcall nothing works, but at least you can practice on your mechanics.

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