"Everyone has the same chance of getting bad teammates

Space Bum·4/21/2015, 3:24:47 PM·4 votes·2,375 views

It's often compared to a coin flip that's not entirely true. It's actually 9 coin flips. The strength or weakness of each player is significant. If I were to sit down with another person and we each rolled a 9 sided die there is a chance that one of us may pull drastically ahead after consecutive roles. I've gone an entire night of playing MTG without winning one "who goes first" roll.

Now let's say it's a coin flip. 50/50 out of 100. This does not mean that you win then lose win then lose..... At the same time that is exactly what it could be because the 50% odds apply to each flip. Two players may indeed get 50 wins out of 100 games but the order they are made in can have drastically different outcomes in what rank Each ends up in. Furthermore because each flip had it's own odds it is entirely possible to win 100 out of 100 flips https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq39ofDtYPA

44 Comments

Izbiz4/21/2015, 3:43:53 PM6 votes

Uh.... This sounds like basic statistics.

The whole point behind the theory that "Everyone has the same chance of getting bad teammates" is that:

A) the number of times that you get a bad teammate will gradually be in your favor the more you play (creating the _ranked is a grind _ argument)

B) It's in the name. You statistically have better teammates. Not always.

If you play 20 games, statistics are meaningless, just like a coin flip. If you play 1,000 games, you cannot blame bad teammates on your play because the statistics are much more accurate.

It's called a sample size.

AMYS GRAVE4/21/2015, 6:55:20 PM3 votes

people don't understand standard deviations... I always like to point out the following.

If you consider just matches with afks, and you aren't the afk, then the chances of the afk being on your team vs the enemy team are 4/9 and 5/9. This will average out across the comunity but does not have to average out for an individual. with 27 million players daily there are around a million players who are on streaks with 5 consecutive afks on their team and none on the enemy team and one poor dude with 17 in a row on his team.

Extreme Troller4/21/2015, 3:45:42 PM2 votes

everyone have the same chance to win lottery. that's why some people are challenger.

Sincerly,

http://www.auplod.com/u/plouda52fae.jpeg

Reynard the ƒox4/21/2015, 3:32:43 PM2 votes

It's actually ten coin flips, because you have bad games too.

Sometimes I do great, sometimes I do poorly. The 1/9 raging top laner, who I'm sure will be Silver forever, might cool his attitude and go on to be 9/1 in his next game. I was just unlucky that I happened to be with him this game instead of next. That's one of the main reasons rank is determined by chance. I can fix my positioning, I can CS better, I can ward more, but I can't make allies un-tilt. Everyone has bad games, and I can't control when I get an ally who just insn't playing well today. It's just my bad luck. Or his bad luck, if I'm the one who's tilting.

Bitter Cynic4/21/2015, 5:29:28 PM1 votes

There's nothing complicated here at all. In a single match the outcome largely depends on how lucky you are with matchmaking since even the best players in the world won't be able to carry 4 horrible players against a team of players that don't even necessarily have to be all as good as the one who is stuck with the noobs.

Over hundreds and thousands of matches your own personal performance plays a much more significant role in your ladder placement which unfortunately means sending months of your life down the drain. In 1v1 games you progress much more quickly as all that stands in the way of reaching the top is your own personal performance. In games like Poker where plenty of luck is involved as well that luck is static as in once the cards are dealed they stay the way they are whereas a player during a LoL match can change like going on tilt and start playing badly because of it.

The only time it's really worth bringing out any kind of statistics is when you have a sample size of at least a thousand matches for soloq or when you are dealing with team ranked where the team members remain the same throughout all of the matches as then the team vs team is pretty much the same as any 1v1 game. Even with a large sample size there are just so many variables in soloq play which you can't account for, that it's not really worth getting all nerdy and serious about this.

You can bitch and whine but the only thing that will matter in the end is how well you play and even that is not true each and every match. You either deal with it or keep wasting your time hoping that a free challenger badge will just drop into your lap.

EL HAMSTERO4/21/2015, 6:10:40 PM1 votes

yes any given match is determined by luck. but its not true luck. its decided by riot. did riot give you the winning team this time or losing? because with matchmaking they are definitely rigging the games to ensure you only win around 50%.

for every match you win they will give you a losing team in the future to balance it out. that is how every player ends up at 50% winrate. the games are largely decided before they begin.

LegendaryLemur4/21/2015, 6:59:55 PM1 votes

There are only 2^33 people in the world, so this logic kinda dies by the wayside. Even if every single person in the world played league, its unlikely anyone would have 40 bad teams in a row. Once you play 100 games the odds approaching 50/50 bad teams to good is starting to become statistically "certain" (i haven't worked out the math, but this seems right to me).