With LW only affecting the bonus armor, tanks are actually doing incredibly well right now, especially since the only thing you really need to beat most AD champs is Tabi and Randuin's now. They can't ignore your 80-100 base, which is 40-50% reduction.
It wouldn't surprise me if ADC's started to build Cleaver over LW with how LW works now. If you're, say, Vi. Vi has about 85 base armor at 18. Say she has 9 from runes, Tabi, Randuin's, and a Deadman's. That's 159, so she'll have a total of 244 armor. Cleaver at max stacks reduces that by 30% for the entire team. That's about 170 armor left. The new LW does 40% of the bonus, meaning the bonus armor would total 95.4, equaling out to 175.4. With two armor items and Tabi, a Cleaver does more ArP than a LW. It's not until you get into THREE items that a Cleaver would be beaten.
Running numbers properly, Cleaver's 30% shred of the 85 base armor is 25.5. The 10% LW has above Cleaver would have to equal to the 25.5 armor. That means they need a minimum of 255 BONUS armor before LW becomes a BETTER item.
If we look at the squishiest of tanks, Sion, who sits at 70 armor the 10% would need to equate to 21, which is a bonus of 210 armor. That would require another armor item or for him to build bigger armor items like a FH and a Thornmail with Tabi.
Also, 200 is 2/3rds reduction. Equation is Total Armor divided by Total Armor Plus 100, TA/(TA+100), same formula is used for MR. The 300 would be 3/4ths, 75%.
Armor shred overall has been reduced dramatically and a tank that gets ahead at all -should- win their lane when against an AD champion since the AD champion (Not counting Fiora and her True Damage) can't just build a LW to counteract the LARGE amount of base armor a lot of tanks have. Like Renekton has a base of 25 that goes up to 90 at max level, gaining 3.8 per level. Forces AD champs to get the Cleaver just to do damage to these merciless tanks and while Cleaver is a great item overall, it's going to become to new LW.
Really though. The 15% damage boost the new LW gives will be good against the armor stacking tanks since a tank with more than one armor item.
Just to run numbers to show about what you'd do between the new LW and a Cleaver... With 170 armor, you have about 63% reduction. At 175, you have about 64% reduction. One might think, 'Oh, only 1% difference! That's not a big deal!', well, the Lord Dominik's LW gives 15% boost in damage. That damage amp is reduced to 9.6% after armor. That means you'll be doing about 8.6% more damage with the new LW compared to a cleaver. About 9% more, but you have 15 AD less.
Now you look at your damage to squishies. They won't have much armor if any at all.... But Ahri has a base of 80 at level 18... Which your little LW won't be touching. A Cleaver would reduce that 80 though on top of reducing the 45 from Zhonya's. So 125 with the item, that's 87.5 armor taken into affect with the Cleaver, whereas the LW is 107. 87.5 is about 47% reduc. 107 is 51%. Difference of 4% and that's -if- they have Zhonya's.
Squishier target! Other ADC's. Draven gets up to 81 base armor... He likely won't have more than just the 9 from runes, bringing him up to 90. With a LW, you'll bring that down by 3.6, which is about 86.4. With a Cleaver, you can bring it down as far as 63. 86 is about 46%. 63 is about 39%. IF you have ArP in your runes, you can bring it down even further by another 19, which is always shiny.
I should note because of how reducs work too, if you have some one on your team with a Cleaver, plus a J4 or Wu, some one who can reduce the person's armor, well, the reduction is of the total armor, but it doesn't reduce the base, it adds a minus to the bonus armor, thus heavily reducing the effectiveness of your LW's 40%.
But yeah... Other than the return of League of Cleavers, I think Tanks will survive since they can just stack tons of health now. Can't even say GW will be a thing since that item is outclassed by a Cleaver damage-wise, plus it only effects self healing like Mundo, reducing it by 40% while he can gain 20% from Visage and 8% from the defensive masteries, meaning he'll be at about 129.6%, then reduced to 77.8%ish healing effectiveness. Whole loss of 22.3%. Instead of 60% of his healthbar, he'll heal for about 47% of his max health. Loss of 13%. You nulled 13% of his max health over the duration. You... like... You barely scratched it. >> Better off adding to your damage so his 86ish base armor, Tabi, and Randuin's aren't murdering your damage into oblivion while he sits there with 5k health, healing for about 2350 instead of 3k. You nulled all of 700 health with a GW. Want to know what you could've done over that 12s period of his healing to total 700 damage? Well, you could have bought a Cleaver or a Lord Dominik's and smacked him around, but instead you thought 650 health over TWELVE seconds was going to help more than increasing your damage to everyone, including him....
Seriously, 650 over 12s is only 54 per sec. You AA at about 1.5 per sec with the average build on most carries, give or take .2 per sec based on your AS item and boots and if you have an AS steroid or not.
Also. IE adds 50% of your AD to your crits. With 50% crit, that's a 25% average boost per AA. At 1.5 AA's per sec, that's about 37.5% of your AD per sec added on. Sounds like a lot? Well, 50% crit chance by itself gives 50% average boost to AA's, which is a 75% of your AD per sec added. That means the difference between IE and no IE is about 1.75x AD per sec compared to 2.125x AD per sec. With 400 AD with full build and such, that's about 700 DPS vs. 850. A difference of 150 DPS. Add in the 50% armor you won't be ignoring and it's a 75 DPS boost. IE is great, don't get me wrong, but it's not tripling your DPS. In fact, it's barely adding much after armor, lol. This is why Riot is comfortable with saying ER is a good replacement for IE on Marksmen with mana issues, i.e. Corki, Ez, Lucian, and Varus where as ADCs like Cait and Ashe have boosts based around crit damage (Their passives. Cait's headshot does more based on crit chance and crit damage, plus it can crit! She hurts pretty bad....)
On topic. Tanks are doing well. Yasuo won't really be a problem. He might excel against Thresh since the new ArP is additive (The 7% from masteries adds to the 40% from the new LW upgrades), so he can get upwards of 97% of bonus armor shred if it stays the way it does. If it becomes multiplicative, that'll mean he'll ignore 70%ish of armor. I haven't fully tested it given games don't last long enough to do such and customs are -still- limited to 2 people on the PBE. Either way, that's a sad Thresh going from 200 to almost 16 armor where as a 200 armor Vi would only be dropped to 85. lol.
I'll also note, AGAIN, Armor REDUCTIONS will affect the BASE armor when stacked on top of each other, but Armor Reductions do NOT stack well with the new LW since, again, Armor reductions will do the 30% off the base, but it'll add the negative to the Bonus armor, meaning the Vi who's dropped from 200 to 140 will only have 55 bonus armor for your new LW to affect whereas another reduc like J4 or Wu's Q would reduce the 140 by the 20+%.
Tanks surprisingly didn't get the shortest straw this season and ADC's, who are getting the biggest changes, are ACTUALLY getting boned since Cleaver isn't part of their normal kit nor do most of them scale all too incredibly with it whereas champs like J4, Wu, UrGod, Kayle, Xin, etc. who have reducers in their kits get to rip armor to shreds. All those reductions in armor to the popular tank items were all part of the master plan.