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Win Rates Mean More then you think

StoryDuck··7 votes·1,354 views

Win rates are a used metric but I continually see people use win rate as an excuse to justify nerfs/buffs on champions that often don't need them. There is a lot to a complex game like LOL and I just wanted to point out a couple things you can tell from win rates.

Amumu Ivern Sona Ahri Anivia These are the top 5 win rate champions. Ryze Rengar Azir Leblanc Nidalee These are the bottom 5 win rate champion.

What do these champions tell us? Is Anivia too strong? Does Leblanc need buffs? We can't tell from this information alone. What we can tell is that champions with high win rates as well as low win rates have similarities.

Amumu Ivern Sona Ahri Anivia are all champions with simplistic easy to understand kits that have identifiable weaknesses and strength. They have forgiving abilities that are a big part of their kit and require little skill to use. They are easy to play the first time you play them (compared to others). They do not have walls of text built into their kit that requires a lot of knowledge to understand how to maximize their power. In essence, they are easy to learn champions that people can pick up and be effective with really quick.

Ryze Rengar Azir Leblanc Nidalee we can tell from this champion selection that the champions that end up with low win rates tend to have complex kits that require a LOT of skill to use. A lot of text for many abilities making for complex understanding how to maximize their kit. Nidalee in particular has 7 abilities and not just 4. Azir is one of the most complex champions ever made in lol. Ryze has walls of text that require some pretty deep understanding of how to utilize his kit properly.

What I see with win rates is a message that complex champion naturally have lower win rates. This makes sense because all the new players that pick them up are going to need to play a lot more games with these champions before they understand their power and know when they can win fights or when they need to play safe.

I also see that simplistic champions have higher winrates because it is so easy to be effective with them. You can understand their powerspikes and moments of strength in just a few games if not the first game. This makes a lot of sense when you think about it because you will figure out the champion so fast and not lose as many games once you understand them.

What else can we tell with this information? Well we need to take into account that simple champions with low winrate are likely weak. Rek'Sai is the 10th lowest winrate champion. She is surrounded by complex champions but her kit is very easy. This raises warning signs for me that Rek'Sai is in need of some buffs when such a simple champion has such a low win rate. I understand that she has a global ult but Shen, TF, Galio and GP all have a higher win rate. Taking the win rates in comparison with other champions gives me far more information about what a champion needs. There are obviously other factors to take into account but I have more information about Rek'Sai and her needs by taking win rates as a whole and not just her win rate alone.

What about the flip side? The first complex champion I see with a high win rate is Yasuo at 51.76%. That is pretty close to 50% and win rates fluctuate all the time by 2-6%. This doesn't really raise any flags but if his win rate was consistently higher like around 55% that would be cause for concern because he has a lot of complex mobility in his kit as well as many other features that need to be learned like 3rd hit Q, how to get reliable knock-ups and windwall placement.

There are also outliers that can tell us something is out of wack. Sejuani's recent 60+% win rate was such an event. This was an insane amount of win rate for any champion and it turned out that her passive stayed active when under a shield. That was op as enemies couldn't even break the shield making her practically immortal. Anything over 60% is something that needs a look at.

There are a lot of things we can tell from win rates but just saying X has Y win rate doesn't tell us anything. Take it in context of win rates in a whole look at the champion's win rate and compare that champions kit to others and see if something is out of wack. Don't just grab a win rate and try to beat people over the head with that stat. Use some deductive reasoning as to why that win rate is good or bad. There will never be a time where every champion has 50% win rate. I doubt we will ever have a time where all champions fall in a 48-52% win rate range. That is just the nature of the game.

Information found at: https://na.op.gg/statistics/champion/

20 Comments

Zone of Endless4 votes

You also need to incorporate pick rate when you're using win rate as an argument. Some champ will have high win rate because only the main are playing while others who have low win rate is because many people are playing them so naturally it will be low. When a champ has high win rate coupled with high pick rate generally they need to be looked at.

StoryDuck1 votes

Although looking at pick rate is something we should look at in conjunction with win rate picking one champion and looking at their win rate and pick rate only tells us nothing. You run into the same problem in that you have information in a vacuum with nothing to compare it with. You can't make an educated guess about what is needed for a champion based on those alone. Compare pick rates to other champions with high/low pick rates and you will probably find similar patterned like with high/low win rates.

I would suspect that champions that are well rounded and can do multiple things would have high pick rates due to a natural usefulness in multiple metas where as low pick rates are for champions with real cookie cut kits that only fit specific situations. Taking a look at top pick champions I see a lot of ADCs which tells me something might be off with ADCs when we are seeing so few different ADC. 3 out of top 5 most picked champions are ADCs, Lucian, Cait and Xayah. Using pick rate information as a whole tells me more and with so many ADCs having abnormally high pick rates it signals something off about ADCs when only 3 are so highly coveted. Obviously there is more to it but if I was going to look for changes I would be eyeing ADCs at this time for issues. Perhaps in itemization.

nGio1 votes

{quoted}

Although looking at pick rate is something we should look at in conjunction with win rate picking one champion and looking at their win rate and pick rate only tells us nothing. You run into the same problem in that you have information in a vacuum with nothing to compare it with. You can't make an educated guess about what is needed for a champion based on those alone. Compare pick rates to other champions with high/low pick rates and you will probably find similar patterned like with high/low win rates.

I would suspect that champions that are well rounded and can do multiple things would have high pick rates due to a natural usefulness in multiple metas where as low pick rates are for champions with real cookie cut kits that only fit specific situations. Taking a look at top pick champions I see a lot of ADCs which tells me something might be off with ADCs when we are seeing so few different ADC. 3 out of top 5 most picked champions are ADCs, Lucian, Cait and Xayah. Using pick rate information as a whole tells me more and with so many ADCs having abnormally high pick rates it signals something off about ADCs when only 3 are so highly coveted. Obviously there is more to it but if I was going to look for changes I would be eyeing ADCs at this time for issues. Perhaps in itemization.

I would argue that pick/ban rate and win % together do tell a better story. Annie top has a 77% win rate with a .43% play rate in that lane. Clearly a counter pick or a few people playing her really well. Not a problem. Yasuo top has a 45% pick/ban rate with 56% win rate. Take Yasuo mid, where he has a a 46% pick/ban rate while still holding onto a 53% win rate. Just looking at pick/ban rate and win rate told me there is a champion doing extremely well in 2 different lanes, usually occupied in majority by different types of opponents.

Do these stats tell the whole story? No, but in some cases you can see clear outliers, like with Yasuo.

Mordepool3 votes

Well I can attest that it is a finely written post summing up most of the major data points with regards to Champions

Mordepool2 votes

Confound it all Where did I put my reading glasses?

StoryDuck1 votes

Top shelf, in the cup next to the anime.

Mordepool2 votes

{quoted}

Top shelf, in the cup next to the anime.

Thank you

Volibear Boss1 votes

Then again there are champions like Graves with a 49% winrate wich are permaban in high elo cause they are broken.

StoryDuck1 votes

This is a good example of win rates being of little to no help. Win rates don't tell us much but we can get some information from it.

chipndip11 votes

Sona has a good deal of text to her abilities since there's two things to explain per ability, and then there's her passive.

Thing is that you can just side step most of this and spam Q.

StoryDuck1 votes

I couldn't help it I laughed at this. Sorry but I just can't imagine a world where people consider Sona's kit complicated.

chipndip11 votes

It isn't complicated. There's just a decent deal of text there explaining what her passives and actives do. Doesn't mean it's hard.

StoryDuck1 votes

I can't tell what your problem is here. Are you saying she's easy or hard? You legit make no sense. If you saying she is hard you're insane and need to stop playing lol. If your not then why are you arguing?

chipndip11 votes

You know the words explaining what Sona's abilities and passive do? This is a commentary on the amount of those words. DOESN'T MEAN JACK SHIT ABOUT HER DIFFICULTY/COMPLEXITY AT ALL.

StoryDuck1 votes

Ah, I get it now, sorry to get ya riled up. I'm not sure why this was a point of contention as she is still an easy to use champion keeping my point valid. You had me really confused there because I couldn't understand why you kept going on about there was a lot of text. I wasn't quite clear why you were trying to push the point across, I was just over thinking it. You were just stating that she has lots of text, which is in conflict with my statement that easy champions have simple abilities without a lot of text.

chipndip11 votes

Yes, that's literally what I was saying. There's a lot of text.

It's fine enough, Jharr. Happy posting. o.o7

LankPants1 votes

There are also outliers that can tell us something is out of wack. Sejuani's recent 60+% win rate was such an event.

If you're going to make a statistical argument use actual statistics and not some bullshit number you just made up.

Post rework Sejuani's winrate peaked at just over 55%, you can the back end of this right before her hotfix on Lolalytics. It didn't even get close to 60+%, infact I think there's only ever been one champ above a 60% winrate, Skarner.

StoryDuck1 votes

Depends on the site you use for checking statistics. I don't really understand why but lolalytics, op.gg, lolking and others all have different stats for win rates, pick rates, and other such things. I don't know how they get their information but I do remember complaints about sejuani having a 60% win rate. It's not really surprising when she can have such a huge bonus to armor and mr and keep it while she has a shield up. If it makes you feel better just imagine I said Skarner instead. The point is that huge win rates in excess of 60% are times you can tell something is off with a champion by just their own win rate. Don't get side tracked just because you are hung up that I used sejuani as an example because that obviously isn't the point of the thread.

LankPants1 votes

Depends on the site you use for checking statistics.

No reputable site showed Sejuani at a 60% winrate. Even Lolking, a site renowned for being terribly inaccurate still showed her at a 55.4% winrate at her peak.

I don't know how they get their information but I do remember complaints about sejuani having a 60% win rate.

They pulled a number that sounded high out of their arse, or you did. Either way it was complete bullshit. You should always fact check any statistic you hear that you want to use in an argument anyway.

My point is, if you're going to make a statistical argument, use statistics. I honestly assumed that was a super simple idea. When you make up a statistic it really serves to discredit your whole argument because it shows that you don't entirely understand what it is you're talking about.

StoryDuck1 votes

I'm sorry you are unable to understand the point of my post. I'm sorry that you are unable to move on and just look at the message and feel it is more important to correct errors instead of communicating about the thread. I don't understand why this is so important to you but hey more power to you. I'm glad you find so much joy in meticulous number crunching and then serfing the boards just to find errors and harp on people when they don't align with your perfect data. It seems like a waste of time to me and kind of trolly to try and pick an argument that has nothing to do with the post but I guess this is just one of those times text doesn't translate as well as spoken words.

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