The Math Behind the Vel'Koz Changes: Part 1 (Knowledge Through Graphing)

Those are some impressive looking Vel'Koz changes, aren't they?! Higher AP scaling on ult, TONS OF TRUE DAMAGE, and a new AP scaling on his passive! Pretty nifty. I've seen some conjecture that he'll be really, really OP after this, so I went ahead and ran some preliminary numbers. Keep in mind these results show only the effect of stacking AP vs a target's MR with the old and new Vel'Koz. They assume a level 18 Vel'Koz with no runes, no masteries (thunderlords) etcl. There is no magic pen, flat or %, factored in. Right now a lot of Vel players prioritize magic penetration early because, for his old kit, it's better. That may change with the new kit, and it's something I'll investigate in future post.

First of all, let's have a look at the difference between old and new full combos. This assumes that I land a Q, then my E, both parts of W, and the full R channel (total best case scenario but it happens more often than you think, particularly against a target with short-range mobility and no http://s31.postimg.org/3o4ifcr0r/velkoz_Rework_Analytical_Full_Ult.png

"Goose, what the hell am I looking at?" Good question. It's kind of like a topographical map, and it's easy to read if you think about it the right way! Those lines represent combinations of Vel'Koz AP and his target's MR that do the same amount of damage. Take, for instance, Vel'Koz's old damage, shown on the left graph. If you look at the line that says 3000, it means that Vel only needs 300 AP to do 3000 damage to a target with 0 MR, but over 700 AP to do the same damage to a target with 50 MR.

Now look at the graph on the right. If I want to do 3000 damage to a target with 0 MR, I'll need a little more AP, just over 400. That's more than old Vel! What gives? I thought this was a buff! Well, now look at how much AP you'd need to do that same 3000 damage to a target with 50 MR. About 550. You needed to more than double your AP before to maintain damage, but now you only need a 30% increase or so.

This means that new Vel'Koz is better at killing targets with more MR than before. That's reflected in the slope of the lines on the right graph; the flatter the slope, the less effective it is to build MR. These slopes can also change depending on what build you use and whether you prioritize penetration or AP, but we'll get into that in another post.

Another consequence is that, (on these graphs), Vel'Koz is not quite as good at popping squishies as before. A 0 AP Vel'Koz could drop around 1900 damage on a 50 MR target before; now he's only packing about 1750. The break-even point is bit under 300 AP.

So let's say you get a good wombo off and, although you proc passive on two or three champs, you don't get to hit them with a full ult. That changes the profiles a little bit, as show below. http://s31.postimg.org/rdty41pe3/velkoz_Rework_Analytical_Half_Ult.png

This graph look similar to the other one, but the point at which new Vel breaks even with old Vel has shifted downwards a little; it's around 150AP at this point.

Lastly, let's look at something new Vel'Koz is definitively worse at: picking off a squishy without the complete combo. If you're geometrically inclined, you can throw a Q out, slow them so it hits with your ultimate, and if they don't flash, they'll die. Live, anyway. Let's consider the following graph. http://s31.postimg.org/t86slscej/velkoz_Rework_Analytical_Full_Ult_QNo_Research.png

Note the shape of the graph on the right; it's now steep and linear like all of old Vel's curves. This is because his ult can't proc his passive anymore, so if you only land your Q and then ult, you won't get any true damage at all, just pure magic damage. Old Vel'Koz could whack a target with 50 MR for around 1700 with Q-R if he had 400 AP. Now that same combo only gets you 1300. Considering most ADCs aren't packing 1700 but might have 1300 HP and, without maw or a dedicated MR item, this might be a bit of a situational nerf, but we'll have to see how build paths play out to be sure.

Stay tuned! Happy geometry.

TL;DR New Vel is more combo Dependant than old Vel but kills tanks better and might be better of building raw AP than mpen (more on that later).

EDIT: to anyone checking my numbers, I added the W ratios incorrectly; the only thing this really changes are damages at high AP limits by 20 or so. It's relatively insignificant and I don't want to re-upload stuff, so I'm going to leave as-is.