@Riot, How Do You Measure Game Balance?

Goosetard··5 votes·423 views

I don't think winrate is a good measure of balance* at all. To illustrate why, consider the following thought experiment:

Let's say there's a champion with a passive that gives 500g to every member of his team or the enemy team (50/50 odds on which). It really doesn't matter what the rest of his abilities are (assume a 3 hit proc, %maxHP damage, some kind of dynamic mobility, and an ult that bends the rules as we know them) because whichever team gets the bonus gold at the start of the game will almost surely win with such an advantage. So his winrate will be around 50%. But he's not really balanced because half the time his team is steamrolling and the other half they're being steamrolled. If you're really addicted to winrates, you could argue that he's a great champion because he perfectly balances every other champion in the same match! Hooray!

This is a flatly ridiculous example, but there are a lot of champions which people hate because they feel like whoever is playing that champion has an unfair share of control over the outcome of the match. Sometimes these champions even sit below the 50% winrate mark because they can be very hard to play. If I'm playing against one, however, I don't want the outcome to be solely in the hands of an RNG (as in the absurd example above) or largely in the hands of the other player (even if their champion has a really high skillcap)--I want a fair share of it to be in my hands.

Winrates can be a particularly deceptive red herring because they don't measure the total impact of a champion on a game, only whether or not that champion's presence tends to lead to more victories than defeats. So, Riot, how do you measure champion impact? And how does that contribute to champion balance?

*Some people may think "balance" is defined as winrate, in which case, substitute "balance" for "balanced for healthy gameplay" in the post and continue as normal.

4 Comments

Pika3102 votes

There are countless factors that SHOULD be looked at and Rito did used to do this. Some may remember the LB and Yas nerfs when they sat around the low 40%s. Literally everything affects the numbers, just to name a few:

  • Runes
  • Masteries
  • Items
  • Skill-ranking order
  • Familiarity
  • Team-comp
  • Lane matchup

Let's look at items just for example and use Sona and Lich Bane. In diamond she has a >52% winrate, but in the >1/3 games she builds Lich Bane, it increases to a >63% winrate. To make up for that >11% discrepency, it means the <2/3 games where she does NOT build Lich Bane, her winrate has to fall <47%.

What does this say? On her own, picking Sona lowers your odds of winning, but building Lich Bane drastically improves those odds. So is she strong? Decidedly not. Is Lich Bane strong? Affirmatively so. Together? Answering this would require identifying another factor or making a comparison with another Lich Bane user.


These sorts of math and observations branch off into massive trees for literally everything in the game, but it seems like in recent days Rito has just decided to abandon this all together and is nerfing solely off winrates completely ignoring any sort of objectionable thought.

Goosetard4 votes

This is a great point, and further compounded by the fact that you can't tell whether or not Sona was ahead when she bought the lichbane. Some items have really absurd winrates because they're "luxury items" and are purchased because a team is very far ahead, instead of the team becoming ahead because they were purchased.

Pika3101 votes

Yes. One of those luxury items for another example was Ruby Sightstone before the recent support rework. As an item that was never bought until super late game or if you had an extreme surplus of gold, its winrate on every support was disturbingly high despite the fact the item itself was severely underwhelming and required considerable utility buffs to become a viable buy.

ZT Xperimentor2 votes

I agree, they're either ignoring crucial details, and/or avoiding telling us what they're ignoring. Runes, masteries, items & lane matchups are key parts but not the entire picture of effectiveness. Was one lane constantly ganking a neighboring one? Was someone disconnected? What was the ping difference between players? These are just some of the many factors that need to be considered; whether or not riot is going to admit it.

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