A low win rate champ team can never beat a high win rate champ team.

BluePolarizer··3 votes·992 views

A team of Gangplank DrMundo Lux Corki Janna will always beat a team of Hecarim Gragas Cassiopeia KogMaw Poppy simply because they have better numbers and are way better in their respective roles. Games now more than ever are decided in champ select.

I'm even willing to say that team 1 played by silvers can probably beat team 2 played by golds.

39 Comments

Troiann18 votes

The IQ required to make this post and actually believe it to be true is so low it's in the negatives. Therefore, it must be a troll post.

BluePolarizer1 votes

Are you saying that a high win rate champ team is NOT statistically more likely to win than a low win rate champ team?

Why don't you post on your main so we can see your real elo?

Troiann4 votes

You never said more likely, you said always.

My main got permad because I made a death wish on one of the rioters and idiotically posted it. It's UltraSceptile.

Catastrop1 votes

Ooooh, I was wondering about that. I saw your name a few times back and I was like, did he name change? Why? It was such a good name....I never bothered to look at your level.

Troiann1 votes

Glad you liked my name. In hindsight i regret making that post but we all do dumb things on the internet.

Jack Rakan3 votes

Do you know how statistics work? The win rate is on a champion by champion basis, now on a team by team basis. Besides, the two comps you made are leagues apart composition wise. Of course the second would lose, its set up for failure... its like something you would see in the hell of bronze.

Winrate is affected by many things, including pick rate, popularity of counters to that champion, and more. Not just how well it performs. And if you want to go into team composition specifics I guarantee you will find greatly different results than solo champion win rates.

Your team composition makes or breaks the game, not the champions win rate. If you can protect that fucking kog maw he will shred shit faster than corki could dream of.

So yea, I agree with ultra... Do a bit of research on statistics before you mention them.

Anomander1 votes

I don't know you got poppy supporting the kog. With a hecarim top gragas jungle and a cass mid. It seems like it can work. I mean at lvl 6 the peel for KOG is insane like 2 towers away insane.

BluePolarizer1 votes

The 1st comp is actually less synergetic than the 2nd, since they have very weak CC (only Lux Q) and Olaf Katarina MissFortune Garen Irelia Ahri etc. would obliterate team 1. In fact, team 2 has more synergy because they have 2 long range carries, an off-tank and full tank that are not gold hungry and a strong peel support AND they have more CC and mobility. However due to them being number nerfed to hell, there's nothing they can do vs. team 1's superior numbers.

Sneakyy XD8 votes

{quoted}

A well-rounded team will beat a team with three junglers

What a revelation!

BluePolarizer1 votes

Hecarim is a top laner and Poppy is still played support. You can put any random low win rate support in there and it won't make a difference.

EcchiOtakuTM1 votes

poppy support is actually strong, people just dont know how to play her :P glad I started getting use to it though she's basically a more mechanical leona+tahm and pretty fun+effective. She does still need buffs such as

http://boards.na.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/gameplay-balance/tj99ntLT-poppy-needs-some-tlc

But aside from that she can support effectively and consistently vs anyone.

Jack Rakan1 votes

Like i said earlier that composition is garbage... they dont have synergy... why would you compare comps like that and mention individual win rates?

DrCyanide3 votes

Math time boys and girls! Stats from lolking, since they give stats by rank. Using today's win rate for simplicity.

Team 1, manned by Silver players Gangplank : 50.92% win rate DrMundo : 53.92% win rate Lux : 52.99% win rate Corki : 53.94% win rate Janna : 51.11% win rate Average Win Rate: 52.57% win rate

Team 2, manned by Gold players Hecarim : 46.92% win rate Gragas : 46.37% win rate Cassiopeia : 46.76% win rate KogMaw : 48.59% win rate Poppy : 48.61% win rate Average Win Rate: 47.45% win rate

Interestingly enough, those two average win rate numbers add up to almost exactly 100%!

So out of 100 games, the silver team wins maybe 5 more games (keep in mind the stats are flawed, since they are based on Gold vs Gold and Silver vs Silver matches). That means that Team 2 win 47-48 times, a far cry from "never".

BluePolarizer1 votes

This means that simply by playing OP champs, you can have a higher than 50% win rate against people who are on average 300 MMR higher than you.

That is like random Diamond 3's beating pros. That is HUGE.

Thank you for the math though. It makes me even more worried about the state of balance in this game where picking OP champs matters more than playing.

DrCyanide2 votes

No, it doesn't. I repeat:

keep in mind the stats are flawed, since they are based on Gold vs Gold and Silver vs Silver matches

Get data on Gold vs Silver matches before you claim that.

Troiann1 votes

Do you really think bjergson would lose as casseiopia to a diamond 3 lux?

BluePolarizer1 votes

There is a 800 MMR difference between Bjergson (top of challenger) and a random diamond 3. However, the bottom of masters only has a 400 MMR difference which corresponds to an expected 91% win rate. if the win rate of a masters player is anywhere lower than 91% it means that Lux is indeed OP.

AMYS GRAVE1 votes

If you had averaged win rates by taking play rates into account it would have been exactly 100%

Gigahappytown1 votes

{quoted}

Math time boys and girls! Stats from lolking, since they give stats by rank. Using today's win rate for simplicity.

Team 1, manned by Silver players Gangplank : 50.92% win rate DrMundo : 53.92% win rate Lux : 52.99% win rate Corki : 53.94% win rate Janna : 51.11% win rate Average Win Rate: 52.57% win rate

Team 2, manned by Gold players Hecarim : 46.92% win rate Gragas : 46.37% win rate Cassiopeia : 46.76% win rate KogMaw : 48.59% win rate Poppy : 48.61% win rate Average Win Rate: 47.45% win rate

Interestingly enough, those two average win rate numbers add up to almost exactly 100%!

So out of 100 games, the silver team wins maybe 5 more games (keep in mind the stats are flawed, since they are based on Gold vs Gold and Silver vs Silver matches). That means that Team 2 win 47-48 times, a far cry from "never".

yeah

execpt kog'maw is literally the worst champ in the game

That by itself should reduce team 2s winrate by 80%

DrCyanide1 votes

Except he's not, not in the skill range we're looking at anyway. Stats from lolking, sorting by ranked solo and weekly.

Lowest Win rate champions in Silver: Nidalee Ryze Mordekaiser Gragas Khazix Nunu Rumble Urgot Azir Veigar Lowest Win rate champions in Gold: Nidalee Mordekaiser Azir Veigar Ryze Nunu Gragas Illaoi Leblanc Rumble

Champion.gg is only valuable for comparing champions at Plat+. Since the OP specified two divisions lower than Plat, its stats have no bearing in this conversation.

Athenes Lulu2 votes

yah y pick low winrate champs when high winrates can gurantee vicktory?

wait wait wait, so if team 1 afk's while the other doesnt, that means team 1 wins, right?

Titanium702 votes

A certain someone really needs some serious stochastics lessons... oh boy![zombie-brand-facepalm]

BluePolarizer1 votes

I'm not sure why this is an issue. If you have high win rate champs on your team, you win more. If you have a team of all high win rate champs, you win much more. Also, stochastic refers to a process and is an adjective. Don't toss terms around when you don't know what they mean.

Titanium701 votes

If you have high win rate champs on your team, you win more. If you have a team of all high win rate champs, you win much more

This is pure logic and correct

A low win rate champ team can never beat a high win rate champ team

This, isnt!

And just btw:

stochatic is the adjective! stochstics is the noun!

So please dont make a fool of your selfe even more and spare me with those smartly pubertal non sense!

Additionally THIS is internet and I'm not even a native speaker so why on earth should I even care about?!?

PDE5 Inhibitors2 votes

The kind of people that believe this are the kind of people that think Donald Trump should be the next president.

Anomander1 votes

Hey now leave politics out of league please.

PDE5 Inhibitors2 votes

It's the same type of person.

Anomander1 votes

Generalizing and stereotyping. I guess if you want to Stereotype and generalize I could say only complete idiots/bigots/and morons lump people into groups to try to make a political point.

PDE5 Inhibitors1 votes

Only idiots believe this. Only idiots support Trump. Idiots = idiots. Therefore, my statement is correct.

Dreadlocks1 votes

Challenge excepted. =]

insaiyanbacca1 votes

what if the low winrate team is a bunch of challenger mains of those champs vs the team of high winrate champs as a bunch of silver jack of all trades? i have just disproved you're statement :^)

BluePolarizer1 votes

if it even allows silvers to beat golds then it is already too much since a 1400 mmr silver 2 should losr 75% of the time vs a 1600 mmr gold 4 from elo calculations. if they even go 50/50 it means that OP champions give you a huge advantage.

Streeton1 votes

what win rate means = nothing (okay maybe like a little piece of feces)

ofart1 votes

They can sometimes but yes, obviously the deck is stacked against you unless your teammates know those champs especially well.

Ralanr1 votes

It also has to do with the skill level and mechanical understanding of the players and their respective champions.

Jack Rakan1 votes

No, that's not correct. Alot of factors are involved with how the game goes. Winrate does not mean everything, it is champion specific... So long as you have decent CC, 2 tanks, and some heavy aoe damage, you can easily win.

A team with no tanks however is almost always a defeat against a team with them. Very little chance to win that if you dont close it out at 20.

ModKnightsKemplar1 votes

I think you're misunderstanding statistics...

What if gragas has 40% win rate because people don't know about his crazy synergy with hecarim and cass? Does your statement hold? Probably not. I'm not saying that's the case, I chose random champs for that example, I'm just saying that isn't how stats work. Champs don't have a higher win rate simply because they have "better numbers" and are "better at their roles."

And if you think a bunch of silvers could beat a bunch of golds 100% of the times with EITHER team... Well, it's probably silver 1's and gold 5's, and the gold 5's were probably boosted there.

BluePolarizer1 votes

The 100% win rate is obviously exaggerated but let's use the math of elo for a second here:

  1. The MMR difference between a bottom of silver 1 and a top of gold 5 is 200 mmr.
  2. According to the elo formula, a 200 mmr difference between 1400 (bottom silver 1) and 1600 (top gold 5) corresponds to a 75% win rate for the golds. Even a 100 mmr difference between an average silver 1 and an average gold 5 corresponds to a 64% win rate for the golds. Taken from elo calculator: http://www.3dkingdoms.com/chess/elo.htm
  3. This elo calculator assumes a "fair game" where 2 players of equal elo have a 50/50 win rate against each other.
  4. This is NOT true for a high win rate champ team vs. low win rate champ team.
  5. If playing a low win rate champ team vs. a high win rate champ team allows the silver 1 team to win any more than 36% of the time against the goldl 5 team, the high win rate champ team is OP.
ModKnightsKemplar1 votes

I think the downvotes speak for themselves.

You are oversimplifying things, and your original post was an obtuse, inaccurate way to discuss balance.

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