Vel'koz 8.13 post mortem. Why did his winrate drop from 50% to 46% in one patch?

Khristophoros··5 votes·1,146 views

No changes to Vel'koz, no changes to items that he uses. His pick rate barely changed too.

The information in this post is sourced from op.gg

What happened? Here are his counterpicks which saw significant increases to pick rates in 8.13

Kassadin: 3.14% -> 5.76% Fizz: 7.45% -> 8.03% Anivia: 4.98% -> 5.27% Yasuo: 8.86% -> 10.95% Ekko: 5.47% -> 6.12% Orianna: 2.53% -> 4.8% Total: 35.43% -> 40.93%

Counters who saw a significant decrease in pickrate: Talon: 11.62% -> 10.31% LeBlanc: 10.82% -> 9.47% Total: 22.44% -> 19.78%

I left out a few champs who didn't have very significant changes in their pick rates.

Considering only the above champs, Overall Change: 57.87% -> 60.71%

~3% overall may not sound bad but it's worse than it looks because the majority of those champs which saw an increase are his hardest counters according to the stats.

Personally I think that immobile mages like Vel'koz need more itemization flexibility to be able to adapt to meta changes. You might say "Look, you have Hourglass and Banshee's. What are you complaining about??"

The problem is mages give up way too much to adapt their build paths. Banshee's and Hourglass have no health, mana, or sustain. They also have low AP. The resist stats basically do nothing for us as well. So if we rush them we're completely giving up our midgame. For a mage the only viable 1st buys MUST have mana, health, or exceptionally high AP.

19 Comments

Anatera4 votes

Riot doesn't balance. They shift power from one role to another and claim it's balance, when they should be aiming for a middle ground.

This time, they've shifted power to assassins because enough of them cried over the last couple of months and assassins naturally counter immobile mages like vel'koz, most of whom got no compensation in order to deal with the power spike assassins were given.

Riot doesn't balance. They care more about "freshness."

Khristophoros2 votes

It's still useful to point out when a champion is hit too hard by a patch, whether it's direct or indirect.

I am pretty sure they had no intention of nerfing Vel'koz otherwise they would have simply nerfed him.

In fact they are buffing him, but imo it's not going to help against the meta.

Anatera1 votes

{quoted}

It's still useful to point out when a champion is hit too hard by a patch, whether it's direct or indirect.

I am pretty sure they had no intention of nerfing Vel'koz otherwise they would have simply nerfed him.

In fact they are buffing him, but imo it's not going to help against the meta.

Well I mean, they didn't really nerf him at all. They just buffed his counters, but in a game like League, changes like that have far reaching consequences.

What they SHOULD be doing is introducing incremental changes. Not dumping massive buffs/nerfs at a time and just assuming everyone will get used to it.

Khristophoros1 votes

Historically Vel'koz had always been solid and viable which is why I've mained him since season 4. I've never seen this happen before.

The problem is AP itemization is incredibly inflexible now. Like I said in the OP buying BV or Hourglass 1st item is just not an option because of the stats on those items. I don't think they are even remotely worth it on the 2nd item either.

Oh also Vel'koz was changed to depend more on AP. It used to be that he could buy defensive items because his ult had incredible base damage and his passive didn't even have AP scaling. Now he needs to build high AP and he can't afford to delay it with defensive items.

Anatera1 votes

{quoted}

Historically Vel'koz had always been solid and viable which is why I've mained him since season 4. I've never seen this happen before.

The problem is AP itemization is incredibly inflexible now. Like I said in the OP buying BV or Hourglass 1st item is just not an option because of the stats on those items. I don't think they are even remotely worth it on the 2nd item either.

Yeah, well that's basically what I meant. Assassins got buffed and mages received no compensation, as you can see from the stats on AP items. Characters are more than just their raw stats.

And honestly, it can be argued that assassins have inflexible itemization too, what with all of them buying Duskblade as their first item.

Khristophoros1 votes

I think assassin players don't feel any pressure to buy anything other than Duskblade or maybe Youmuu's because their champs kits have all the tools they need to survive built in. But if they do feel like it they can buy Hexdrinker, Quicksilver Sash, or Veil of Night and it's way less of an investment or setback compared to BV or Hourglass. Mages are forced to buy a fully complete item before they get anything out of it. I mean yeah you can get a Stopwatch but that's single use.

I think the issues assassins generally face have more to do with having trouble finding opportunities in teamfights and being shut down by brainless enchanters.

Crimson Zeppelin1 votes

I literally fled to botlane with my laser squid. Go to exodus and team up with MF or Jhin. This is the only way for now

Khristophoros1 votes

I already played him as bot lane carry from time to time. It's fucking incredible with a lockdown support like Alistar, Leona, Lux, Morg, etc...

And ofc I played him as support as well.

Lohrr1 votes

I'm curious.. what changed in the patch or item build of his counters? Also, game developers know that it's impossible to have anything completely "balanced." The term really loses meaning when you have a situation like A beats B beats C beats A. You can't balance A and B, because A is supposed to beat B, and so on. So, in a game like LoL where you don't have 3 champions, but over 100 (140-ish?) it's impossible to wrap your hands around it directly. So, instead, what they do is see if item or skill 1 creates a situation where B beats A (which you don't want if you have an A->B->C->A situation). I think, they're trying to just balance champions such that they all have a near 50% win rate. Of course, things like free rotation vastly upset the numbers; a bunch of players unfamiliar with the champion try it, lowering its win rate and raising its pick rate. Another example would be if a really popular pro match was dominated by one champion (for whatever reason). Then everyone thinks, "That champion is the best. I'm going to learn it." Of course, it could have an extremely high skill cap or just been in a really favorable matchup, so you have a lot of people getting upset that they can't duplicate the pro play. Since Vel'koz's pick rate didn't spike, it leads me to believe something environmental (not directly related to the champ) changed. A 4% drop in win rate along with a 3% increase in counter pick rate tells me it wasn't just that people learned which champs counter him. The number that would stand out most to me, would be the differential in win rate for champions against Vel'koz. Who's winning more against him? Then, ask why? Was it their kit that changed or their abilities. My guess, although I didn't do the actual research, would be Stormrazor. Also, the buff to Domination rune tree might be a factor, and perhaps the shorter death timers. www.leagueofgraphs.com shows him at -.1% win rate change for the last patch, so you might question where you got your info too. op.gg only shows info for Korea if I'm reading right, so there might be an entirely different meta. He has an abysmal 30-something mid rate, and 60-something supp win rat.

Khristophoros2 votes

Nothing changed this patch to his item build. The fact that he struggles to adapt to meta changes is an effect of previous patches - AP item overhaul and changes his kit that make him depend more heavily on AP so he can't buy defensive items anymore.

Kassadin is his biggest counter and got buffed. It was only AP ratios so it didn't change the lane matchup significantly. What it really changed was that people started playing Kassadin almost twice as often as they did in 8.12. A lot of his other counters also got more popular in this patch for whatever reasons.

btw the 32%/67% for roles you're looking at isn't the winrate for those roles. It's the percentage of games he's in those roles. 67% of the time he's picked, it's support. the other ~32% of the time it's mid.

Lohrr1 votes

So you think that he's just being countered by Kassadin more often now? That seems feasible. Is there a way to see the % of Vel'koz matches that are against Kassasin before the patch and after the patch?

Khristophoros1 votes

I don't know if that statistic is available. But I don't think it's only because of Kassadin. In my OP I listed a bunch of his counters that have an increased pick rate this patch. Kassadin is just the one that both saw the biggest increase in pick rate, and is his biggest counter as well.

Blindsorcerer1 votes

Akali herself could threaten Riot to balance the game or die and they wouldn't be able to

Khristophoros1 votes

I'm getting downvoted. This is unreal.

Yenn1 votes

{quoted}

I'm getting downvoted. This is unreal.

It's because Vel'koz is insanely broken against unskilled players who don't have the reaction times required to avoid his abilities.

KlydeFrog1 votes

Because people dont build rylais and liandrys.

KlydeFrog1 votes

Because people dont build rylais and liandrys.

KlydeFrog1 votes

Because people dont build rylais and liandrys.

KlydeFrog1 votes

Because people dont build rylais and liandrys. Soooo

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