Is league of legends more structurally sound with Dynamic Queue than with Solo Queue?
Lets start with an analogy to communicate the gestalt of what follows before diving into the math.
You could randomly fortify a structure in 15 places, but remove a critical pillar and the whole thing comes crashing down. In a very real sense, the critical pillar is more valuable to the structural integrity of the overall structure than the other 15 combined.
Now humor this viewpoint and think of the game from that perspective. Does the following goal seem intelligent?
- "Giving potential players the things they want causes them to play. The value of league of legends increases as the number of players increases."
Each player added improves the game by a specific amount-- a player may marginally reduce queue times by playing games regularly, can offer their own sort of insight into ways of playing champions, may create content, could spread a positive vibe and so on. On the other hand, a few players may be toxic, spread negativity and so forth. In other words a player adds a certain value V (positive or negative) to the game.
Now I put forth a question. Is the total value of a set of players the sum of their individual values? Is it person for a person to display qualities that make him more valuable to the game in the presence of specific other people, like his friends? I think it is. And I think that is the rational behind dynamic queue.
In other words, if two players have values V₁, V₂, independently, it is possible that the value of them playing together is greater than V₁ + V₂. If it is not simple addition, then what function represents their value together? Whatever it is, we can call that function E.
Let the value of playing together be E (a, b).
#Axioms
It would be helpful to establish a set of axioms (assumptions) about E. I will provide some justification about why these assumptions are reasonable, but being assumptions they do not need proof-- if they seem unreasonable despite the rationale provided, you probably won't find any reason in the proofs that leverage them.
Note that E is commutative:
- The order of the arguments is irrelevant because the function operates on a combination of two players, not a permutation, therefore E is a commutative operator; in other words, a pair of players is the same regardless of how you order them, and the value for the pair is the same. E (a, b) = E (b, a)
Note that E is associative:
- The order in which players join a group does not affect the group's value, thus E is an associative operator. E (a, E (b, c)) = E (E (a, b), c)
Note that E has an additive inverse:
- Notice that it is possible for the value a player creates to be completely cancelled by the toxicity another player creates. E (b, c) = 0 is possible. We could denote the value of c as the value of -b. Writing E (b, -b) expresses the idea that a player b is grouped with some other player who cancels out player b's value.
Note that E has an additive identity:
- The value of a player who doesn't play, create content, and who isn't involved with the game at all is obviously neither positive nor negative, thus it must be zero. I take for granted the idea that people who do not even know what league of legends is provide zero value to the game.
Therefore, even though E is not addition, it follows the same algebraic rules that addition follows. So we can justify defining addition of players as an alias to E, and represent it as the more familiar +.
a + b = b + a
(a + b) + c = a + (b + c)
a + (-a) = 0
a + 0 = a
Note that the transitive properties are NOT met:
- Just imagine that the value of player A is greater than player B, and A and B play well together, but C and B argue. A > B and A + B > A does not imply C + A > C + B or C + A + B > C + A. This is strange. Numerical values are such that 4 + n > 3 + n with 4 > 3, but apparently this doesn't hold with player values. This is something to watch out for!
We can use these axioms to deduce properties about the game. First a trivial example:
#Hypothesis:
Acquiring more players will increase the total value of league of legends.
#Counterexample:
Let the value of league of legends be V.
Let the players of league of legends be A, B, C...
Suppose there is a player D such that D < 0.
Obviously:
A + B + C ... + D < A + B + C ....
In other words, adding a player who is so toxic he has negative value reduces the value of league of legends.
Now for something less trivial:
#Hypothesis:
Acquiring more players will increase the total value of league of legends if the players added are not toxic.
#Counterexample:
Let the value of league of legends be V.
Let the players of league of legends be A, B, C...
Suppose there is a player D such that D > 0.
Suppose player D and A play fine separately, but don't get along at all. A + D < A
(A + D) + B + C ... < A + B + C ....
#Hypothesis: If Dynamic queue causes N players to play ranked and M players to stop playing ranked, and N > M, then the value of league is greater with dynamic queue than it is without.
#Counterexample: Just take for instance the set of players so that the total value of the M players is greater than the total value of the N players. I'd like to point out that the top 1% of players on average has more value than any other 1%, and possibly more value than 20 times the middle 1%. This is because the top 1% hosts a larger portion of its people as those that make guides, stream for a living, play professionally and act as leaders. These actions increase the game's longevity by keeping it publicly relevant. If a tiny fraction of the highest level players stop playing and X times that amount of middle tier players start playing, the change in value could still be negative. So this counter example is realistic.
#Conclusion So what do the most valuable players want? Do they value team work or individual agency more? How much toxicity are they willing to tolerate in exchange for increased agency or team work or some other metric? What is the optimal set of qualities (Agency, Teamwork, Toxicity, ...) so that the value of the game is maximized?
Some players are willing to tolerate less Teamwork for more Agency, others the reverse. Some are willing to tolerate Toxicity if it means having more Fairness.
I speculate that the most valuable players desire a combination of (Agency, Teamwork, Toxicity, Fairness, ... ) that is different than the combination that RIOT is pushing. I think the most valuable players want more Agency so that they leverage their commitment to the game against those who have less commitment. I think the most valuable players are even willing to tolerate a higher degree of Toxicity for more Fairness. However, this combination must be balanced with the desires of less valuable players insofar as they outnumber the more valuable players.
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There is a set of (Agency, Teamwork, Toxicity, Fairness, ... ) that optimally slices all potential players to maximize value.
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There is a set of (Agency, Teamwork, Toxicity, Fairness, ... ) that optimally slices all potential pairs of buddy players to maximize value.
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There is a set of (Agency, Teamwork, Toxicity, Fairness, ... ) that optimally slices all potential triplets of buddy players to maximize value.
...
These sets of metrics are incongruent with each other. Buddies might desire higher Teamwork at the cost of lower Agency for example. The set of metrics optimized for dynamic queue is certainly not equivalent to the set of metrics optimized for solo queue.
A solo-first-class system will have different properties than a buddy-first-class system. In all but that targeted for solo queue, your optimal value is tied to people other than yourself, so if those people stop playing then you are offering less value than you would if they were. One player leaving could cause the value of the game to increase or decrease by an amount equal to many multiples of his own independent value. This makes the value of the game more volatile.
The increased volatility does not pair well with the fact that dynamic queue cannot function without an ample supply of solo players, who are second class in the system and so are less likely to be retained. So the system is both more volatile and less reliable.