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Do win rates mean anything? Aatrox is in a good spot according to them.

Darkinlegend··2 votes·867 views

As an Aatrox advocate, I often complain about his state. I am told by Riot and by people on this board that Aatrox win rate is in a good spot and therefore he is okay. Basically that is what they say.

Last month, the most popular champs, in Gold rank, like Lucian, Ez, Thresh, Cait, Morgana were played respectively and approximately 500,000, 450,000, 400,000 and 150,000 times.

Aatrox was played 23,000 times.

So just looking at Gold, can we conclude, based on these numbers that his win rate means he is in a good spot?

Does not 400,000 games probably represent a wider range of player skills and game experience and is therefore a more realistic representation of the champions win rate?

Are those 23000 games being played by die hard Aatrox fans who are just very good with him, so that moves his win rate up?

I think that win rates being used to justify a champion needing a buff or nerf or rework is faulty thinking, if not quantified. Out of the 23000 games what percent of the players in those game main Aatrox? Is that percentage higher then the people who play Lucian? Out of the 23000 games how many are relatively new players or experienced players? How does that compare to Lucian or other champions with much larger numbers?

Okay trolls, you may begin your assault.

9 Comments

Quepha3 votes

{quoted}

So just looking at Gold, can we conclude, based on these numbers that his win rate means he is in a good spot?

Yup.

Does not 400,000 games probably represent a wider range of player skills and game experience and is therefore a more realistic representation of the champions win rate?

Nope. Increasing the sample size past 23,000 would have a negligible effect on accuracy.

Are those 23000 games being played by die hard Aatrox fans who are just very good with him, so that moves his win rate up?

Nope. Looking at "Loyalty" charts from lolking.net, Aatrox players seem to generally skew far more towards the 'inexperienced' end of the spectrum than most other champions, especially with an incredibly high number of players that played exactly one game with him.

So, by your own hypothesis, Aatrox's apparent winrate should be artificially DEFLATED by his players and he's actually EVEN STRONGER THAN STATISTICS MAKE HIM APPEAR.

Darkinlegend1 votes

{quoted}

Yup.

Nope. Increasing the sample size past 23,000 would have a negligible effect on accuracy.

Nope. Looking at "Loyalty" charts from lolking.net, Aatrox players seem to generally skew far more towards the 'inexperienced' end of the spectrum than most other champions, especially with an incredibly high number of players that played exactly one game with him.

So, by your own hypothesis, Aatrox's apparent winrate should be artificially DEFLATED by his players and he's actually EVEN STRONGER THAN STATISTICS MAKE HIM APPEAR.

"Nope. Increasing the sample size past 23,000 would have a negligible effect on accuracy."

Well then based on what you say, Aatrox actually being more powerful then he appears, then the fact that a powerful champion not played means a design flaw--not interesting or fun enough to bother playing. The conclusion is still the same as if he is under powered--he needs a rework.

Quepha1 votes

{quoted}

"Nope. Increasing the sample size past 23,000 would have a negligible effect on accuracy."

Well then based on what you say, Aatrox actually being more powerful then he appears, then the fact that a powerful champion not played means a design flaw--not interesting or fun enough to bother playing. The conclusion is still the same as if he is under powered--he needs a rework.

He's still in a good spot balance-wise.

As to needing a rework, that's no different than any other diver. Wait until they get the class rework they need.

Cloud2732 votes

This is common knowledge. Yes he is obviously in a good spot. People just think he's weak because he isn't a FOTM faceroll easy champ. If you actually take the time to learn him, he is very rewarding.

Darkinlegend2 votes

{quoted}

This is common knowledge. Yes he is obviously in a good spot. People just think he's weak because he isn't a FOTM faceroll easy champ. If you actually take the time to learn him, he is very rewarding.

He is not in a good spot, and hes not an easy champ. You have to exercise judgement calls in marginal situations with his W to get the most out of him, and that's not always easy to to in chaotic battles.

PrinnyLopunny2 votes

When it comes to these statistics, maining the champ has absolutely no bearing on the numbers outside of how often a champ is being played. "I main 'X' champ" doesn't mean that they're going to win. It may mean that they're more likely to win when compared to other champs that the person plays, but when also taking into consideration the many number of factor such as what lane they're going to, who their allies are, their enemies, or just even simply having a good/bad day ect., there are simply too many variables to take them individually into account.

Win rate is essentially an over arching way of gauging a champs performance, out of the number of total games the champ has been played, how often they win and lose. While you most definitely have a point that the lack of play on him may be good reason to take a look at him, statistic/gameply-wise people are doing just about well as he is expected to be played. Especially considering there are some champs in a much worse scenario than him such as Nunu and Yorick. Who can of course be deadly in the right hands, but in average have been suffering in both winrate and popularity.

Privileged Jew1 votes

If we know that from previous statistics, non-meta champions have had high win rates simply because mains comprised the majority of their playerbase.

Then why is it that when you see a small number of games (4.6% of Lucian's total games) on a non-meta champ, and you notice he has a positive win rate, do you consider the idea that perhaps a bunch of non-mains are playing him and rolling face on a secretly OP champ? It's a silly idea, obviously these are mostly experienced Aatrox players making use of the good itemization that all AD champs enjoy this season.

Quepha1 votes

[{quoted}](name=Triple K Maf1a,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=N4XbI0yA,comment-id=0001,timestamp=2016-04-30T03:42:18.982+0000)

If we know that from previous statistics, non-meta champions have had high win rates simply because mains comprised the majority of their playerbase.

Then why is it that when you see a small number of games (4.6% of Lucian's total games) on a non-meta champ, and you notice he has a positive win rate, do you consider the idea that perhaps a bunch of non-mains are playing him and rolling face on a secretly OP champ? It's a silly idea, obviously these are mostly experienced Aatrox players making use of the good itemization that all AD champs enjoy this season.

Far more "mains" play Lucian than Aatrox.

ill be ur daddy1 votes

I used to say Aatrox is fine which he was in season 5. Maybe I haven't figured out the right build but he feels really weak this season. Has no clear cut strengths and snowballing feels a little harder though I might be wrong. That's why I've moved on. A better player is always the more adaptable one and I realized without Aatrox ( I had more than a 1000 games) it's become harder for me to get back to diamond 5.

His mechanics were straight forward, a hard champ but straightforward. But I can't seem get through plat 3. I think you should just find someone who has a clear cut role and main that champ and forget Aatrox he's one of those non existence champs.

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