Here's how you ACTUALLY Nerf Jungle
So you're experimenting with all these complicated number changes when the solution is staring you right in the face; people don't ward.
So here's what you do; at the start of every game, everyone gets a single free ward independent of trinkets. This ward lasts longer and is true invisible for its duration, cannot be placed near monster camps. The ward also red pings when enemy champions get near.
It all but eliminates jungle influence by creating major risk for them unless they farm jungle, lanes learn importance of warding for later, and jungling ganks early are reduced or forcing them to get predator, which scales horribly, creating a do or die situation in that case, creating trade offs.
Give me my paycheck in the form of quarters please.
. Champs with good crab killing speed and contest potential. I also know that my opponent will go for the crab yes or yes.