I finally realize why the partial Rune refund is unfair and feels like dogshit for longtime players.
TL;DR: IP that players spent on runes before S7 was invested into a system that did not meaningfully improve their gameplay experience, and instead put them behind on meaningful champion purchases. Since the rune refund is only partial, these meaningless Rune purchases have become a permanent and irreparable setback in their progress towards buying champions.
The way I had been thinking about this before (as I'm sure other people have) is like this:
Players spent their time to earn currency, and then spent that currency on runes. Since they benefited from those Rune purchases, they have gotten what they paid for. Getting a partial refund on runes is a free bonus that they otherwise would not have gotten, so they got the full benefits of buying the runes, and will be getting free currency, so overall, their rune purchases will overall be beneficial.
Now however, I've taken a different look at the economy of the situation. Here's how I've broken it down.
Spending IP on runes doesn't just mean "now you have runes". It also means "you no longer have IP to spend on champions". Every purchase of IP delays the purchase of a champion, and since runes are a must-have if you want to be competitive in the game, you are almost forced into delaying fun game-enhancing purchases of champions in favor of groundwork stats that get you to the bare minimum for a fair experience. If you are a long-time player and you've sunk lots of IP on runes, it means that you have set yourself behind on buying into a meaningful and rewarding aspect of the game, which is champion diversity.
Think about how veteran players who have spent tons of IP on runes have set themselves hundreds of games behind on champion purchases.
Riot is now making them free, and only giving partial refunds for IP spent on runes.
After the refund, these players are still several dozens of games behind their champion purchases, and the reason they are so far behind is because they had to buy into an in-game system that was essential to play the game competitively and also offered no meaningful benefit to the player's experience in-game.
People who bought into the runes system traded a few points of MMR for an exciting and diverse champion pool to exploit and explore, and the point where someone be after playing League for 5 years before the Rune system was reworked, someone who started in S7 will be there in 3.