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There may be no "forced 50% winrate"

Lunar Lunacy·7/1/2018, 6:43:43 AM·4 votes·2,398 views

At least not programmed in, but I'm honestly starting to believe that the "forced 50% winrate" is caused by the laws of probability, the same way how if you flip a coin enough times it will eventually even out to 50% heads 50% tails. Some would say that every game you have the same chance if getting a good or a bad team, but if you just got 5 good teams in a row, probability would say you are overdue for a bad one.

Same how if you flip a coin over and over again, every consecutive heads you get makes the next flip "more likely" to be tails, even though we have no equation to calculate this. So for example, I was able to go on a streak of good games that got me from Gold 4 to Plat 3, then I went on a loss streak so bad you'd almost think I was inting all the back down to Gold 1. This isn't the first time something like this has happened, every win streak is inevitably followed by a loss streak and vice versa.

I think I play fairly consistently, I don't play like a god one week and then turn into the most horrible feeding trash the next. So, what gives?

18 Comments

Unstoppable Monk7/1/2018, 7:22:33 AM3 votes

Every time I get to 52% I get slammed with bronze, preliminary, and 30% win rate people for like twenty games.

Tahminatrix 7/1/2018, 6:47:45 AM3 votes

Assuming you never troll you have 4 other people on your team who may possibly troll. Along with 5 on the enemy team.

I see trolls on my team to end my winstreak and I see them repeatedly when I`m on a loss streak.

I see trolls on the enemy team when I`m on a winstreak, especially apparent on the game that ends my loss streak.

ChargeItDownMid7/1/2018, 4:09:49 PM2 votes

[deleted]

Solicitude7/1/2018, 12:12:50 PM1 votes

There is a "forced" 50% win rate, but its neither dependent on riot nor laws of probability, Its depending on "player skill" and MMR. Let me explain. Lets say that you are placed in silver V, while your own skill is worth for diamond V. You will start with a very high win rate, since, because of the skill difference between you and the other players in silver V will allow you to single handedly carry most games. As you keep climbing, your win rate will start dropping because the skill deference between you and the other players keeps reducing, making it harder for you to solo-carry. So once you reach, lets say plat IV, your win rate from 80% will drop to 65%. But you keep climbing, albeit a little slower. Once you reach your "intended" rank you will still have a higher than 50% win rate. But because of that win rate, your MMR is higher than average for that rank, so you get more LP for wins and less for losses. You will eventually reach diamond III, for example. At that point, because of your high MMR you will be matched with players above your skill level, which will start rapidly decreasing your win rate. Once you reach diamond V, after some time, your win rate will drop around 50% and stay around that. Reason is, at that point, most players you play with, your team or enemy team, are at all at about the same "skill level" as you and your MMR is the around the average one. If you put 100 players of similar "skill level" in a bracket and have them play in random teams over and over again, they will all have around 50% win rate after a sufficient number of games.

Tykenn7/1/2018, 9:54:37 AM1 votes

I think it does exist to some extent. And I don't really enjoy it personally, the way I see it. Is that the cream doesn't rise to the top, some of it gets stuck down below, and stays there because they end up plateauing since the enemies they fight aren't as good as them, so that 50/50 split evens out for the enemy team. Thus you can't really get better if your C game is matching if not better than your opponents A game.

I'm a firm believer in that you can only get better by facing people who are better than you. You don't subconsciously build bad habits because if you slip up while facing them, your loss is so much more apparent.

Despìca Bìll7/1/2018, 8:14:06 AM1 votes

Totally agree. Whether Riot designed it that way or not, ranked feels like a conspiracy.

Lunar Lunacy7/1/2018, 11:48:55 AM1 votes

https://gyazo.com/ac93fabe3e8927185e3a80f5e93c5383 Quick, let's take a look at my last 100 games on my one trick, lmao.