How to Get a 95% Winrate Statistically [Data Analysis OP]
I downloaded LolReplay2 (I do not sponsor them by any means) to view my replays. As an additional neat function, LolReplay2 allows you to view your data from each match in an organized fashion and filter the matches to only contain certain parameters (GPM, Less than 2 deaths, More than 8 kills, etc.) so I decided to mess around with the parameters and see how to statistically win my games.
I am only counting the data for
in the Jungle
The information is as follows...
0-3 Deaths: 90% Winrate 4-5 Deaths: 50% Winrate 6-8 Deaths: 20% Winrate
150+ Cs.....: 73% Winrate 120-150 Cs: 50% Winrate 90-120 Cs..: 60% Winrate 0-90 Cs......: 55% Winrate
10+ Kills: 50% Winrate 7-9 Kills.: 63% Winrate 4-6 Kills.: 71% Winrate 0-3 Kills.: 47% Winrate
15+ Assists...: 60% Winrate 10-14 Assists: 71% Winrate 9-13 Assists..: 83% Winrate 4-8 Assists....: 53% Winrate 0-4 Assists....: 42% Winrate
40+ Minute Game...: 50% Winrate 30-40 Minute Game: 53% Winrate 20-30 Minute Game: 63% Winrate 0-20 Minute Game: 66.6% Winrate (Small amount of data, only 3 games)
400+ Gold Per Minute.....: 81% Winrate 350-399 Gold Per Minute: 80% Winrate 300-349 Gold Per Minute: 37.5% Winrate 0-300 Gold Per Minute....: 0% Winrate
For dragons taken, just assume that the team that is ahead is most likely securing the dragons and can provide illusory correlation because Dragons -> Winning, but Winning -> Dragons. And thus, the winning team will secure more dragons.
IN CONCLUSION
If I wanted to construct the highest probability of winning my game, I would:
Die 3 times or less Cs hard to 150+ Cs Only take 4-6 Kills Take part in about 11 Assists Close the game out at around 25 Minutes Maximize my Gold Per Minute through any means.
My KDA would look like this: 5/2/11 With 162 CS Game over at 23:46 I would expect a 95%+ Winrate with these statistics.
The most intriguing piece of information is that taking too many kills makes you lose, but not having enough makes you lose. Goldilocksing your kills appears to be a strategy to boost your Winrate. Also, the amount of assists matters. Late game where teamfights are chaotic, the Winrate approaches 50% as your mountain of assists are the result of clown fiestas. With the right amount of assists, you are useful yet not warmongering. Less deaths is obvious, I don't think I have to explain this too thoroughly. The less deaths you have, the more presence and pressure you have and the more gold you can accumulate.
Even more important than your Gold Per Minute is NOT DYING. Even Faker once said to climb the Solo Queue ladder that all you have to do is not feed. It turns out Faker is correct.