Win Bot, Win Game! Prove it!

Subdue··7 votes·1,161 views

Introduction The most common interpretation of "Win Bot, Win Game" and its various other forms, including "Bot is all that matters," and a bit more of a stretch, "Top doesn't matter," is that how bot lane performs in the laning phase determines the course of the game. Of course, rarely does anyone quantifies what that means, and so I decided to give it a shot.

Definitions First, I've defined laning phase as the time from the start of the game to the first turret going down. Once the first turret goes down, players begin to roam much more, and team fights begin occurring more frequently. Then, I've defined "winning" as having more gold. This isn't a complete picture, as I've noticed in my own games, but it's the best we have for measuring "winning" at the laning phase.

Process With laning phase and winning both defined, I went to gather the data, using myself as the first subject. Then I used Yenn, because I only had 10 ranked games in my Op.gg and everyone knows he complains about everything. Using op.gg I established the time of first tower, rounded down to the nearest full minute:

https://i.imgur.com/iIbN4oq.png

Then, using that time, I checked how much gold each player had earned by that point in time in the game.

https://i.imgur.com/XgVcjmM.png

I listed all of those values down in the "Game Stats" sheet of this table:

https://i.imgur.com/AbOoa9W.png

And then in the "Game Analytics" sheet of the same table, I added formulas to determine whether a given player was ahead when the first tower fell, and further, whether that player went on to win the game.

https://i.imgur.com/JUf8tlB.png

Finally, I added more formulas to determine what percentage of the time each role's laning phase win would predict a game win:

https://i.imgur.com/YiAynq1.png

Call to Action! Please Help! As you can see from the above table, so far it looks like bot lane is the strongest predictor, though the others aren't too far behind. However, this is based on a sample size of just 20 games, which is far too small. I need your help to provide your data, the same way I've added mine up there. Please follow the link below to a google docs just like the one I've screenshotted above, and add as much of your data following the same process detailed above. I'll add the data to the spreadsheet and keep the results updated, so we can finally put this question to bed.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IBd4sMFURpZNJl6LPuN7KTmdlil9RNNzFeGh8OfckT0/edit?usp=sharing

11 Comments

Sasogwa2 votes

Love how the 'top wins' results in 50% winrate, meaning winning top would be literally irrelevant as the enemy toplaner still has the exact same chance of winning as you do.

Subdue1 votes

{quoted}

Love how the 'top wins' results in 50% winrate, meaning winning top would be literally irrelevant as the enemy toplaner still has the exact same chance of winning as you do.

It's still too early to come to that kind of conclusion. We need a bigger sample size.

sit kid1 votes

in a game of league of tanks, snowballing your own lane doesnt matter

eslayx1 votes

As a support main I agree with this.

Executioner1 votes

Oh, thats actually interesting. Though I've always said, bot lane is directed by the support, not the adc.

i am very high1 votes

{quoted}

Oh, thats actually interesting. Though I've always said, bot lane is directed by the support, not the adc.

If the Support is ahead in gold, that means the ADC is probably also ahead in gold. Not as true for the other way around.

3TWarrior1 votes

I have a question for general clarification. How does one define winning lane as solely marksman or support when both are in the same lane? You defined winning as being ahead in gold after the first tower falls. Does this have any adverse effect if say the support is ahead but the marksman is not or vice versa?

other possibilities exist as well

Subdue1 votes

{quoted}

I have a question for general clarification. How does one define winning lane as solely marksman or support when both are in the same lane? You defined winning as being ahead in gold after the first tower falls. Does this have any adverse effect if say the support is ahead but the marksman is not or vice versa?

other possibilities exist as well

I would expect that usually they would coincide. There's not a lot of data yet, but what's throwing the numbers off now is that in one game there was a very good brand support. And even though their marksman was outplayed and fell behind significantly, the brand support was still able to get kills anyway, and actually got pretty far ahead.

Kythers1 votes

ok now do one for "jungle lose, team lose"

Subdue1 votes

Updated with a few more games of new data!

https://imgur.com/bWgEIth

Thank you for the data, and of course, please provide more!

Subdue1 votes

Bump for help!

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