Win Bot, Win Game! Prove it!
Introduction The most common interpretation of "Win Bot, Win Game" and its various other forms, including "Bot is all that matters," and a bit more of a stretch, "Top doesn't matter," is that how bot lane performs in the laning phase determines the course of the game. Of course, rarely does anyone quantifies what that means, and so I decided to give it a shot.
Definitions First, I've defined laning phase as the time from the start of the game to the first turret going down. Once the first turret goes down, players begin to roam much more, and team fights begin occurring more frequently. Then, I've defined "winning" as having more gold. This isn't a complete picture, as I've noticed in my own games, but it's the best we have for measuring "winning" at the laning phase.
Process With laning phase and winning both defined, I went to gather the data, using myself as the first subject. Then I used Yenn, because I only had 10 ranked games in my Op.gg and everyone knows he complains about everything. Using op.gg I established the time of first tower, rounded down to the nearest full minute:
https://i.imgur.com/iIbN4oq.png
Then, using that time, I checked how much gold each player had earned by that point in time in the game.
https://i.imgur.com/XgVcjmM.png
I listed all of those values down in the "Game Stats" sheet of this table:
https://i.imgur.com/AbOoa9W.png
And then in the "Game Analytics" sheet of the same table, I added formulas to determine whether a given player was ahead when the first tower fell, and further, whether that player went on to win the game.
https://i.imgur.com/JUf8tlB.png
Finally, I added more formulas to determine what percentage of the time each role's laning phase win would predict a game win:
https://i.imgur.com/YiAynq1.png
Call to Action! Please Help! As you can see from the above table, so far it looks like bot lane is the strongest predictor, though the others aren't too far behind. However, this is based on a sample size of just 20 games, which is far too small. I need your help to provide your data, the same way I've added mine up there. Please follow the link below to a google docs just like the one I've screenshotted above, and add as much of your data following the same process detailed above. I'll add the data to the spreadsheet and keep the results updated, so we can finally put this question to bed.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IBd4sMFURpZNJl6LPuN7KTmdlil9RNNzFeGh8OfckT0/edit?usp=sharing