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Prediction: Ashe Changes Will Drop Her Win Rate Substantially

AmazingGoat·4/28/2015, 7:38:10 PM·1 votes·1,035 views

I hope I'm wrong on this, but the Ashe changes look like a pretty sizable nerf. Currently, Ashe enjoys one of the best win rates among any ADC in solo queue. Obviously Riot has access to even better stats, but public stat sites put her at around a 52.5% win rate in plat+. Once these changes hit live, I would expect that to drop comfortably under 50%.

Why?

First, as Riot noted in their synopsis of Ashe's changes, she had a lot of hidden power in her hawkshot (e) passive. This is being removed. Traditionally, she has decent poke, but very little all in power until six (at which point she really is better at setting up a gank than she is at going all in 2v2). Her hawkshot passive helped to make up for a weak laning phase by letting her keep up in gold even if she's denied some farm. This will no longer be possible.

Further, her best asset in lane, her ability to poke, is being nerfed by reducing her ability to poke through a minion wave. The result is that in early laning she won't be able to clear waves that fast, won't be able to poke through a wave, and probably won't be able to all in.

I say that she probably won't be able to all in not because I have any idea of what the numbers on her new passive and q look like, but because the reality is that her kit (ult and permaslow in particular) is such that she will never be able to do as much damage as other marksman early.

Thus, it doesn't really matter how much damage she can do late game with her volley of arrows. Late game damage was never her issue. She will still be immobile, and will probably still have a brutal laning phase, but now she won't get extra gold to make up for it.

I also think it's easy to overlook how much of an asset her passive was in some situations. What her passive provided, in combination with statikk shiv, was up front burst. She was one of the most underrated duelers in the game, and even when behind she could kill almost any non-tank if she caught them with her ult. This was key in that it gave her a chance if an enemy assassin or bruiser dived her. She couldn't escape, but with her stun and up front burst from a guaranteed statikk shiv crit with IE, she could frequently kill them before they could kill her. Eliminating her guaranteed crit removes a LOT of up front burst damage from her. Instead, she now will have to build up five stacks before she can activate her q for extra damage. If she is ahead, this will likely still work. If she is behind or even, she likely will die.

16 Comments

F034/28/2015, 7:42:28 PM1 votes

slowing someone just by auto attacking and gaining bonus damage on each 5 auto attacks is a nerf?

Variks the Loyal4/28/2015, 7:45:08 PM1 votes

I think she'll be fine. Remember Ashe, like Varus, has the second longest base range of ADCs, besides Caitlyn. She'll be able to safely farm up and stack Focus on minions, and then use Ranger's Focus in a trade, which seems like it'll almost always win since it'll slow, and deal bonus damage because they're slowed.

Combine it with her unmatched utility, as far as ADCs go. She can check objectives from across the map, twice, and fire her arrow to engage teamfights. Fearing a jungler gank? Go send a Hawkshot dragon's way to check the river, and check dragon while you're at it.

What she lacks in mobility and safety, she makes up for in utility and... different kinds of safety.

djjomon4/28/2015, 7:47:34 PM1 votes

Her winrate will drop yes. But that's because Riot always pushes out reworks weak. Once she gets her few buffs, she'll be fine.

That said, Riot's taking her extra gold power, and shifting it into everything that's new. So once her numbers are set, her power should be about the same. But her burst potential/trading potential won't be. You're right that she won't be able to trade effectively in lane. Riot's truly identifying her as a utility carry. So her damage can't be as good. But if you're weighing champion strength on damage output alone, you're doing it wrong.

On the other hand, removing her guaranteed crit, but shifting it to on-hit damage once stacked up likely will weaken that burst damage. But simultaneously, it'll be more reliable, and up more often.

MrBuffington4/28/2015, 7:48:25 PM1 votes

I'm not sure about her having a weaker lane; maybe I'm just optimistic. Her lane currently isn't too terrible, she has an incredibly strong lvl 1 with her crit + volley (assuming she doesn't use the crit on a leash or something). This updated passive gives her consistently higher damage on slowed opponents, which to me seems like she'll be able to out-trade most people (think Draven with his damage boost on Q). I definitely agree that power is being shifted out of her W, but she's gaining a lot of power with her Q, which she previously didn't have. Especially now that she has a legitimate perma-slow, chasing and kiting will be easier in getting multiple shots off, coupled with her long auto attack range.

I'm concerned about how the crit-replacement will scale, but I have to see the numbers to really say. From what I can tell now, though, it seems like her laning actually got stronger.

BerserkGoldfish4/28/2015, 9:23:08 PM1 votes

scales with crit chance damage.

so what youre telling me is I can run max crit chance runes, start crit gloves and do this.

shiv>PD>BoRK>PD>new BC>berserkers greaves

im sure 100 %(+ in this case, not sure how over 100% will work here) crit chance would be a good chunk of bonus damage (well have to see how it interacts with shiv proc). but max AS with that bonus damage, a black cleaver and Bork and ashe will be tank buster extraordinaire (especially if her q extra arrows are physical damage)

Rebonack4/28/2015, 9:30:33 PM1 votes

So Ashe is losing her Innate/W one-two punch at level one?

That makes me sad.

BerserkGoldfish4/28/2015, 11:07:48 PM1 votes

so this leaves me with another question.

devourer jg ashe anyone?

BeatzBoyFTW4/28/2015, 11:11:36 PM1 votes

So having a free mana-less slows are a nerf?

A W that shoots out more arrows than the old one is a nerf?

An E which is now global is also a nerf?

I get that she still doesn't receive mobility kits, but do note that Riot likes her as a utility marksman, cz we have enough ADC toxicity with the likes of Kalista Lucian

Only Play Darius4/28/2015, 11:12:01 PM1 votes

Have you seen the Ryze Rework? Every single mana scaling is being reduced.

I feel like it's going to be a repeat of the Tristana rework.