Worlds Group W/L Speculation

Dr Poro·Oct 3, 2017·2 votes·733 views

So we have to guess the order in the Pick 'Em games. Let's take it a step further. What will the W/L of each team be? Who will they win or lose against?

Here's my prediction

Group A: SKT: 5-1 EDG: 4-2 C9: 3-3 AHQ: 0-6

First group already proves this to be a difficult exercise. I don't think SKT is undefeatable. Especially Chinese teams have historically been good at taking away games from Koreans. That said, I think Chinese teams are generally less consistent against western teams than the Koreans. I don't think AHQ is that far below EDG and C9, but based on the HKA performance, I don't think they're going to take a single win. (Tbh I think it's 50-50, but if they get a win, I don't know against which one it'll be).

Group B: LZ: 6-0 Immortals: 3-3 FNC: 2-4 GIGA: 1-5 This group shouldn't be any problem for Longzhu. The other 3 are much closer. I think GIGA will make it difficult for the western teams, but ultimately only snatch one game against FNC with some early game (brilliant) cheese. Immortals might get 2-0 vs FNC but I'm doing a safer bet of 1-1 here.

Group C SSG: 5-1 G2: 4-2 RNG: 3-3 FN: 0-6 This is the absolute worst group for Fenerbahce to end up in, not that I expected them to get out of groups in any other region. They got pretty lucky to get out of play-ins (being placed in the group with HKA), but that doesn't mean they can upset. Chances are they'll take a game away from G2, who have a history of losing against wildcards that they theoretically should beat. I hope this to stay history, though. While they're known to be bad against wildcards, they can also take a game away from Korean teams on a good day. G2 is at their best when they respect their opponents. That's why I think they'll go take at least one game from SSG or go 2-0 vs RNG. Slight favouritism might be biasing my decision here.

Group D TSM: 5-1 WE: 4-2 FW: 2-4 Misfits: 1-5 TSM is having a great year so far (even though they barely didn't make it to knock out in MSI) and I think they'll only lose one to the Chinese, who will in turn lose one against FW who will in turn lose one vs Misfits. Even though they're a #2 seed, Misfits is really the underdog here since this is they're still Rookies. I don't think they'll do much better than Splyce did.

14 Comments

LCK BengiOct 4, 20172 votes

more like c9 with last place

Dr PoroOct 4, 20171 votes

I don't expect C9 to end up below AHQ since HKA was said to be about as good as AHQ and they got smashed in the play-ins where C9 dominated. They didn't play against eachother but you could see there was a big gap between the top 3 teams and the rest in these play-ins.

MasziiOct 4, 20171 votes

[{quoted}](name=Dr Poro,realm=EUW,application-id=9hBQwnEU,discussion-id=EcRwkjjT,comment-id=00010000,timestamp=2017-10-04T06:25:05.827+0000)

I don't expect C9 to end up below AHQ since HKA was said to be about as good as AHQ and they got smashed in the play-ins where C9 dominated. They didn't play against eachother but you could see there was a big gap between the top 3 teams and the rest in these play-ins.

Good thing C9 got the easier teams and HKE actually got the best team in their group.

Dr PoroOct 4, 20171 votes

I'm not so sure Fenerbahce was the best pool 2 team. They barely won against HKA who then got crushed by FNC, arguably the least dominant of the big 3. If Young Generation or Lyon Gaming faced HKA, I think they would also beat them.

Ale non è maleOct 4, 20171 votes

[{quoted}](name=Dr Poro,realm=EUW,application-id=9hBQwnEU,discussion-id=EcRwkjjT,comment-id=0001000000000000,timestamp=2017-10-04T17:14:01.868+0000)

I'm not so sure Fenerbahce was the best pool 2 team. They barely won against HKA who then got crushed by FNC, arguably the least dominant of the big 3. If Young Generation or Lyon Gaming faced HKA, I think they would also beat them.

Fenerbahce was by far the best pool 2 team in the play-in. Their individual players quality was the highest, and no other wildcard team in the play-in had so advanced macro or pocket picks to surpass them

Everyone talk about how good is C9 for beating Lyon, but I think also YG was better than Lyon as in the B05 they were ahead of WE 2 games out of 3 (and game 3 was an even bigger choke than game 2, since unlike game 2 when it was condi doing the plays, in game 3 it was Naul that was way ahead on LB vs Jayce match-up - 2/0 and with the double buff after the kill on Gragas to force Jayce out of the lane, to then throw YG lead away with that stupid facecheck that allowed Jayce and WE to getting back in the game, when in reality YG was ahead by almost 1k at 8 min and had the better comp late)

MasziiOct 4, 20171 votes

[{quoted}](name=Dr Poro,realm=EUW,application-id=9hBQwnEU,discussion-id=EcRwkjjT,comment-id=0001000000000000,timestamp=2017-10-04T17:14:01.868+0000)

I'm not so sure Fenerbahce was the best pool 2 team. They barely won against HKA who then got crushed by FNC, arguably the least dominant of the big 3. If Young Generation or Lyon Gaming faced HKA, I think they would also beat them.

They were macrowise. HKA was also a major region team. LG and YG might have been able to beat them too but not 3-0 like Fnatic, but this is more becuase of HLA being bad.

HellbornCreatorOct 5, 20171 votes

AHQ is awful yeah right

LEBLANKKK TIMEOct 3, 20171 votes

Looks legit I'll let your EU bias pass in group C slide, it seems pretty predictable but that's what everyone says then only 2 in the world get pick em's right [slayer-jinx-wink]

MasziiOct 4, 20171 votes

My predictions.

Group A. SKT - 6-0 EDG - 4-2 C9 - 2-4 AHQ - 0-6

Pretty straight foward group.

Group B. LZ 6-0 FNC 3-3 IMT 2-4 GAM 1-5

This one is more tricky, i can see any of these bottom teams take games of each other. Is IMT gonna be choking/be nervous/be afk after 15 minutes like in their finals. Is Fnatic gonna play trough mid or is Broxah gonna be exposed? How random will GAM be?

Group C. SSG 5-1 RNG 4-2 G2 3-3 FB 0-6

This will be a close group. Think G2 will pick a game of SSG but fail against RNG.

Group D. WE 5-1 TSM 4-2 MSF 2-4 FW 1-5

I think TSM will get surprised by MSF once cus of a good prep and thus not make it fully trough. MSF splits games with FW and TSM splits with WE.

Caimen0Oct 4, 20171 votes

Group A SKT 6 - 0 C9 3-3 EDG 3-3 AHQ 0-6

SKT won't lose any games here. Their problems this season are in top and jungle, and neither EDG nor C9 can punish them enough. EDG's problems are mostly in Top and ADC. C9 can likely trade games with them, and I'm hesitant to say which will make it out if they go to tiebreaker (which I expect to happen). Furthermore, WE was supposedly the best Chinese team going to worlds and they had some ugly games vs YG in Play-ins, so I'm not banking much on China.

Group B LZ 5-1 IMT 4-2 FNC 3-3 GAM 0-6

Longzhu probably drew 2 of the worst pool 2 matchups for themselves in IMT and GAM. LZ's big weakness is in jg, which both Xmithie and Levi will do everything they can to punish, and I expect IMT to take a game off of LZ for it (assuming Pray and Gorilla don't put IMT's bot in the dumpster, which is entirely possible). While GAM looked decent at MSI, their support player moved to toplane, which means that Flame, Khan, and sOAZ will probably just run away with the lane every game, preventing Optimus and Levi from doing much.

Group C SSG 5-1 RNG 4-2 G2 3-3 FB 0-6

This group could play out a lot like Group D last year, in which case I expect RNG to take a game off of Samsung. G2 looked like they were on an upswing, but I don't think it will be enough to get them a game against SSG. Whether or not G2 beats RNG will depend on RNG's play.

Group D TSM 5-1 WE 4-2 FW 2-4 MSF 1-5

TSM will likely trade games with WE if WE's issues in support don't cause too much trouble. Given FW's season I don't think they will leave groups against TSM/WE, and MSF might be able to surprise them once.

Dr PoroOct 4, 20171 votes

Nice bet. You backed it up with better arguments than I could.

ADC and midlane seem to be the most important role right now, way above the rest (except maybe the silent support carry). Especially toplane feels like a low mechanical role right now, irrelevant for most of the game. Their job is just to do the right TP plays, roams to mid or invades. Top lane tank meta is so uninteractive.

My problem is that I don't know where each team's strengths and weaknesses lie in the LPL and LMS teams. Was nice to read some insight on this.

NipsahoyOct 4, 20171 votes

I'm not really sure why everyone thinks EDG is this big powerhouse team. Their top laner is bad, Their mid laner is decent but so are Faker/Jensen. Clearlove is mediocre really and their bot lane while Meiko is strong their AD is a relatively newer player. Doesn't look like a super team by any means. I doubt they'll go 4-2.

Ale non è maleOct 4, 20171 votes

{quoted}

I'm not really sure why everyone thinks EDG is this big powerhouse team. Their top laner is bad, Their mid laner is decent but so are Faker/Jensen. Clearlove is mediocre really and their bot lane while Meiko is strong their AD is a relatively newer player. Doesn't look like a super team by any means. I doubt they'll go 4-2.

EDG doesn't need to be good to go 4-2 though, they just need to be a bit better than C9 and AhQ Look at Season 5, they were far from great overall, but they were good enough to edge an okay-ish H2K team (held back by loulex jungle but the roster wasn't bad and they didn't looked too bad vs SKT or terrible overall, just not good enough to face two teams that were considered top 4 before Worlds) to go 4-2

Obviously, this group is far stronger than that S5 group (no weak BKT wildcard in the group), but EDG really lost 1 game in their World history to a clearly inferior team (the infamous INTZ game at the start of that group they rebounded from immediately), so I don't see why people look at them so unfavorably

I think teams will steal games from each other (plus there is the chance even SKT can drop a random game in groups like last year), so 4-2 is not an so easy to predict scenario, but isn't so impossible either