Possible group of death draws for worlds?

T RexHasTinyArms·Aug 23, 2015·1 votes·700 views

So what do you think could be the hardest group that could theoretically be drawn for worlds and why do you rank it as the hardest?

Personally (assuming Fnatic does close out vs Origen and SKT wins LCK) I think it is: Pool 1: SKT (Probably stronger than LDG, but maybe not) Pool 2: AHQ, 2 seed from china (stronger than NA) Pool 3: Origen (stongest possible 3 seed there can be)

I think the only other debatable "worst possible group of death" would be LDG pool 1 and KR 2 seed, if you think KR 2 seed will be a big enough difference compared to china 2 seed that it out weighs SKT vs LDG strength to make the overall group worse to be in. What do you guys think?

5 Comments

Gaxx DAug 23, 20151 votes

Not even close. P1: Fnatic P2: EDG P2: KT P3: whatever That's easily the so called group of death and you won't top it with anything.

T RexHasTinyArmsAug 23, 20151 votes

Why is that a worse group? Are you arguing that the difference between Fnatic and the other 3 top seeds is so big that it out weighs the difference between Origen and any other pool 3? Personally I just can't buy that. The only way anyone is gonna be particularly strong in the pool 3 (other than origen) is going to be if CLG loses today. Origen went 2-3 vs Fnatic and yeah they lost, but they are pretty strong to take Fnatic to a game 5, that's a huge strength difference between them and a wild card or NA 3rd seed. I'm just not buying that you think the difference in strength between Fnatic and SKT, (CLG/TSM), and LGD is so big that it makes Fnatic so much more difficult to the whole group that the group is tougher than one w/ origen, a 1 seed that I'd say is closer to Fnatic than Origen is to any 3 pool teams, and 2 strong 2 pool teams. The difference in strength w/ Origen just is so huge I think they HAVE to be the P3 team. What's your reasoning for anything else? (Remember, group of death is overall strength of all 4 teams, not just 1 seed or 2 seed)

Gaxx DAug 23, 20151 votes

Okay, your post is lots of text and no reasoning at all. The reason why the group with Fnatic might be the strongest, is because the top teams from China and POSSIBLY (well, not Koo, but KT) Korea are capable of playing at the Fnatic level. Meaning there are 3 equally strong teams in one group, and THAT'S what makes a real group of death. If you take SKT group, there's a possibility of one team playing at their level -2nd/3rd seed from China. Same with China, you take LGD, and at best you'll see Koo (and they have no chance against LGD) or KT. Just because Origen took Fnatic to 5 games, at best they COULD UPSET one of the Chinese/Korean teams (Fnatic played worst games this split, and that's without a question - even in wins they made more mechanical and macro mistakes than in the last 5 weeks combined, not to mention they are FROM THE SAME REGION. That means they scrim and play against each other a lot, and so they are somewhat used to the playstyle). Anyway Origen will be relevant ONLY if they get the biggest luck of the draw (#1 NA, Koo from either 2nd or 3rd seed in Korea, and 2nd/3rd seed from China, or even better - AHQ). TLDR; Only group with Fnatic can provide 3 teams that play around the same level, everything else is easy prediction for which 2 teams leave the group stage.

And yeah, I'm disregarding AHQ, because I watched (apparently unlike you) their games after MSI. They're playing at the NA level (and they'd have serious issues winning it), regardless of how well they did during MSI.

T RexHasTinyArmsAug 25, 20151 votes

Huh, I figured with the sweep of the finals ahq was playing strong still. Disappointing to hear they're weak. The logic you point out makes sense if we assume Origen isn't stronger for pushing Fnatic, but Fnatic was just messing up. The games were pretty sloppy so assuming Origen can't upset 2 or 3 seeds from China or Korea then all 3p teams are irrelevant and only top 3 matter. So that actually makes good sense. My logic was that a strong 1 seed that is almost surely going to pressure the 2p teams and a 3p team upset could eliminate a 2p team that would survive any other group. The chance to upset the 1p team and have both 2p teams make it would be more threatening though. Personally as unlikely as it is I'd like to see Origen or Fnatic play CLG bc CLG looked far more impressive in playoffs than in the season and it will be interesting to see if they are strong or just no competition in NA. Those and SKT vs LGD will be awesome matches, bc imp is looking stronger than he did in last years worlds games and it should be interesting.

Gaxx DAug 25, 20151 votes

CLG actually played really well, I was surprised. Not at their macro game or mechanical prowess - they still lack in that department, but they were very decisive, and that's a sign of good shotcalling. About LMS, people have to realize, that there is usually one or two teams coming from there (been like that since GPL times). Taiwan does NOT have a good league, they are NOT competitive. But their best teams usually have the potential to upset top teams from other regions - which sometimes they do - but that's it. They're not a worlds contender, no more than any NA team.