See, the problem is that I've thought about all of this and still arrive at my conclusion. War forces people to evolve and adapt (
). War is a very serious thing in Valoran. Why not take every opportunity to get the upper hand on your enemy? Ranged weapons like rifles (which do exist in bolt-action form) would be a great at achieving just that. In a time of war, certain personal honors are set aside for the sake of winning that war, and while Demacia might not be so quick to adapt, I feel like Noxus would be quick to jump on the gun. Graves got his hands on a shotgun, who's to say they're really that rare. It honestly feels like guns are just another reality in this world. The only reason I can really think of as to why certain weapons aren't more prevalent is because when they first made league, they had no idea where they were gonna take the world to this extent, and a bunch of champions with guns isn't much fun at all.
So no, while I think this world may JUST be entering their industrial era, I do believe guns are common (Ekko's friend was shot I believe) and just another part of life for these people. Guns and crossbows aren't that hard to make and well within the capabilities of of the scientists of Valoran. The only reason other weapons like swords and lances are used is because magic is a thing. Garen uses magic, Lux uses magic, Xin uses magic, they all use magic. Either with their weapons on just straight up flinging light at people. Magic could very well be just as powerful if not more powerful than guns in this world, and I think that's why certain weapons like swords and axes are still used. then there's people like Darius who just need to calm down. Darius would be a great reason for Demacia to train riflemen. I'm getting off track. Magic makes conventional weapons still a thing.
That being said, magical ranged weapons like Jayce's Mercury Hammer/Cannon are another great example of a ranged weapon that, while born of hextech and necesity, could technically be reproduced in mass quantities. There is nothing in his lord (expect those crystals) preventing that hammer from being mass produced. Now maybe scientists like Jayce aren't too keen on just up and giving their ideas to the military, but I'm sure there are plenty of bright scientists who would be willing to accept a military contract for a shitton of money and support in their research. Demacia and Noxus actually want to WIN their fights, right? While Demacia might be slow to the game, upholding traditional values, Noxus is just bloodthirsty enough to try and mass produce these weapons.
For the sake of arguing against myself (and since I'm not really seeing anything in your statement), I'll go ahead and say that maybe guns are already obsolete in this world. Magic and artillery magic would probably make rifles and the like relatively useless, right? Well, problem is not everyone trained in different types of magic. Also, for people like Quinn and Vayne who still carry crossbow weapons, don't you think handguns (which do exist) and rifles (which do exist) would be better, more powerful alternatives? Vayne uses magic, but Quinn relies in her bro-... on Valor to do anything too crazy. While athletic, she has no actual magical ability. Give that woman a handgun and then we'll talk. Then there's twitch. Yes, he, too, could also used poison-tipped bullets. Maybe a slow-moving subsonic ammo to make sure they don't shoot through their target.
It's painfully obvious that the base materials are abundant in Runeterra for gunsmithing. See, the weapons we see in the actual game are just special-crafted weapons. Generic guns are no fun, especially in a game like this. But this doesn't mean they can't possibly exist. For a world as worked-over as Runeterra, I'm sure they've had guns for a loooooong time. See, you're also forgetting MF and GP. Pirates LOVE guns. They don't care about honor or tradition. Guns kill, so they got guns. Easy as that. And canons. And other explosives that could easily be used to make bullets. Graves uses shell ammunition, meaning that while the ammo/combustion/action of the run may include hextech/magical properties, it also means there is a firing pin as well as a basic knowledge of using combustion to move lead. This means that simple rifles and guns could easily be mass produced and, once again, they aren't included in the game because normal guns aren't interesting. A massive hextech shotgun, or a sweet looking handgun/rifle combo, or a sniper, or just flintlock pistols, are all thematically "cooler" than normal weapons. But the simple fact that Graves uses shell ammo, whether or not it's centerfire or rimfire, means that the technology not only exists but, if a bunch of pirates can get their hands on guns, than so can the other citizens of Valoran.
So now that we know for a fact guns exist and are already in advanced stages of design, we can only assume that if Demacia isn't using guns, it's because they're compensating with magic in some way.
I've also thought about possible security forces Zaun and Piltover might have. While I do believe these "cities" have some sort of formal security force, they may not be a military so much as just appointed security officers, much like police. And BEHOLD, who's the Sheriff of Piltover? What weapon does she carry? So instead of militaries, they have law enforcement. I'm sure security in Zaun is usually done privately either through supporters or hired private arms. But I'm not really talking about their military, but mostly about the big players in this war who would have a reason to upgrade their military with side-arms and other weapons. Does Garen carry a side-arm when he's not clad in steel and carrying his signature sword? Can he just summon a giant sword from the sky and that's his deal? I think the only reason Demacia isn't toting weapons is because tradition, but I'm sure Swain has a rifle or two somewhere. It would be ignorant to thing otherwise. I'm sure Singed, Warwick, and maybe even LB have been given guns but still they have preferred methods of fighting (usually with magic or gassing the place).
Of course, this is all only because magic is a thing. If magic wasn't a thing in this world, it'd look a HELL of a lot like ours. But magic DOES exist here, and their choice of weapons and tactics are a product of this. I'm surprised, honestly, that not all soldiers are taught basic magic to help aid them. I'm sure there is a certain amount of training that goes into being in the military of either nation. Noxus obviously values magic, and so does Demacia. So maybe they're taught basic healing/sensing/physical enhancement spells. See, now THAT is what I'm curious about now. Magic is so prevalent in this world that I don't think it's just a select number of individuals who can actually use it, I think it's more like a science to then, and training in it is definitely a thing. If someone wanted to dedicate their lives to studying magic, they can. If someone wanted to dedicate themselves to the sciences, they can. I don't think it's restrictive of who can actually use magic or develop weapons, but who WANTS/NEEDS to. MF probably doesn't really care for magic, nor any of the pirates. Studying is boring. But for those in the military, simple magic MUST be taught. For a world that's been just short of carved out of magic...