I think key shards should be easier to get, yes.
The problem is though that Hextech Crafting is Riot's version of the Crane Game and they're making a crap ton of money off of it.
The price for single keys and chests is crazy compared to the deals, which alone are ridiculous. With keys and chests balancing out through gameplay, the single chests and keys are no longer making Riot more money. Cut off the supply of a two part train, people need to break out their wallets again.
Hopefully though we will see an increase in key shard drops.
If Riot wants to keep presenting Hextech Crafting as a free rewards system then they'll need to balance the rates of key shards and chests a little bit more. Right now, you're making a butt ton more chests then you are key shards right now, and that is ironic because it takes 3 key shards for a single chest.
Right now even, I've currently had a chest in crafting but haven't been able to open it for the past week because I can't seem to get a single key shard regardless of how many games I win.