Logical? Thats a whole lot of "ifs". First youre saying IF Riot wrote the patch notes wrong (????? How often does this actually happen?). Then IF people who thought he was good stopped playing him (Who actually thought Shen was good aside from those who are actually good at him?). Then IF people who know how to Shen still play him.
Then you decide to say that +/- 2% is normal, which can be true but probably isnt. If +/- 2% was normal, we would see that 4% in variance week-to-week on multiple champions under 7% pickrate (which is 80 champions). We generally dont see those 80 champions go from 46% winrate to 50% winrate overnight with absolutely no changes, much less a "nerf". A 6% pickrate might not be much, but remember thats still thousands of games analyzed.
Or we can just admit that it was a Shen buff. His ult shield got nerfed, sure, but its on a much lower cooldown. I mean, whats the strength of his ult? Is it the strength of the shield or the fact that its global? Many champions can shield you, but only Shen can do it from anywhere and gets the global teleport along with it. Having that global presence up half a minute sooner is pretty big and gives you more opportunities to impact the map (and in this fiesta of a season, having smaller-but-more-frequent-opportunities probably gives you more of an advantage than big-opportunities-on-longer-cooldowns). Plus, his E width isnt anything to scoff at, and his Q buff is just icing on the cake.