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[Math] Understanding the proposed Lich Bane nerfs

Eph289·2/28/2014, 6:51:23 PM·6 votes·1,151 views

If you haven't seen the proposed Lich Bane nerfs on PBE, this is what Riot is testing:

Live: Lich Bane: 80 AP, 250 mana, 5% movespeed Unique Passive: Spellblade: After using an ability, your next basic attack deals 50 (+ 75% AP) bonus magic damage. 2 second cooldown.

Under testing: Lich Bane: 80 AP, 250 mana, 5% movespeed UNIQUE Passive - Spellblade: Now deals 75% Base Attack Damage +50% of Ability Power

If you're not good at intuiting the impact of these changes just from looking at some numbers, I crunched some numbers on (some) champions who consider Lich Bane a core item and how this affects them. I specifically chose not to include Akali because her scaling is weird due to her passive.

Assumptions:

I considered Lich Bane as the second non-boots item that these champions bought

The champions are level 16.

Assumed 40 AP from runes, masteries, and a Doran's Ring, which is ballpark close.

You take Arcane Blade on all of these champions

I included the proposed ratio buffs for Fizz and TF for the new Lich Bane values

This forum doesn't support tables, so ask if you don't understand.

Fizz Fizz Total AP: (40+120 (Zhonya's) + 80 (Lich Bane) = 240

Old Lich Bane (2 procs): 484 damage

New Lich Bane (2 procs): 416 damage

QWER with Old Lich Bane (2 procs): 2005

QWER with New Lich Bane (2 procs): 1961

If Fizz bought Deathcap instead of Lich Bane: 1663

Kayle Kayle Total AP: (40 + 60 (Nashor's Tooth) + 80 (Lich Bane) = 180

Old Lich Bane (2 procs): 338

New Lich Bane (2 procs): 272

QEEE with Old Lich Bane (2 procs): 1255

QEEE with New Lich Bane (2 procs): 1189

If Kayle bought Deathcap instead of Lich Bane: 1171

TwistedFate Twisted Fate Total AP: (40+120 (Zhonya's) + 80 (Lich Bane) = 240

Old Lich Bane (2 procs): 484

New Lich Bane (2 procs): 413

QWE with Old Lich Bane (2 procs): 1241

QWE with New Lich Bane (2 procs): 1194 If TF bought Deathcap instead of Lich Bane: 986

Ziggs Ziggs Total AP: (40 + 60 (Athene's) + 80 (Lich Bane) = 180

Old Lich Bane (2 procs): 388

New Lich Bane (2 procs): 349

Q(P)WERQ(P) with Old Lich Bane (2 procs): 2650

Q(P)WERQ(P) with New Lich Bane (2 procs): 2611 If Ziggs bought Deathcap instead of Lich Bane: 2661

Let's look at the competitive pick/ban rates for these champions as well:

Fizz Fizz

NA LCS: 3.6% pick/ban

EU LCS: 6.7% pick/ban

GPL: 15.2% pick/ban

OGN Masters: 0% pick/ban

LNL (China): 6.3% pick/ban

Kayle Kayle

NA LCS: 44.6% pick/ban rate

EU LCS: 70% pick/ban rate

GPL: 18.2% pick/ban rate

OGN Masters: 0% pick/ban rate

LNL (China): 18.8% pick/ban rate

TwistedFate Twisted Fate

NA LCS: 0%

EU LCS: 0%

GPL: 3%

OGN Masters: 0%

LNL (China): 0%

Ziggs Ziggs

NA LCS: 28.6%

EU LCS: 51.7%

GPL: 54.5%

OGN Masters: 60%

LNL (China): 87.5%

Out of the 4 champions studied, both Kayle and Ziggs are the only ones who could potentially be problematic in competitive play. Both were already recently nerfed, and that nerf's impact has yet to be fully realized. However, even if Kayle and Ziggs were the intended targets of this nerf, the nerf barely affects them while it does significant damage to Fizz and TF, who are competitive non-factors.

All right, enough exposition. I have questions for Riot:

  1. Is this nerf targeted at Kayle/Ziggs?

  2. If so, are you aware that all this does is remove Lich Bane from their build path or at worst delay it without changing their damage? This only affects their 6-item case, as both will get equal mileage out of Deathcap. Kayle can itemize DFG instead of Lich Bane and keep bursting and Ziggs doesn't really need it either.

  3. Are you aware that TF and Fizz get hit far worse by this nerf than the 2 competitive Lich Bane users (Akali is a competitive niche pick atm)?

  4. The only impact this would is removing some tower-pushing capability from Ziggs and Kayle as well as making them slower, at the cost of nerfing anyone else who might have picked up this item. Kayle's recent mana buffs to her ult mean she barely values the stat, and Ziggs will build Athene's. 80 AP is nice but obtainable elsewhere. Does that seem like a reasonable conclusion?

  5. I don't understand these changes. What is their purpose, Riot?

TL;DR:

The Lich Bane nerfs disproportionately affect Twisted Fate and Fizz, neither of whom are dominating competitive play, over Kayle and Ziggs

Even if Kayle and Ziggs were in need of more nerfing (debate that as you please), all this does is remove or delay their purchase of Lich Bane. They get the same champion damage spike (or better in Ziggs' case) from buying Deathcap instead.

Lich Bane is not a dominant competitive item, and nerfing it will only marginalize its niche as the "sustained damage mage item" further compared to DFG, Zhonya's, and Rabadon's.

EDIT: Apparently bulleted lists aren't working, so the formatting looks like crap. Sorry guys.

15 Comments

Luner Hunter2/28/2014, 10:06:46 PM1 votes

hey look riots looking at nerfing another item just because... (read as "because LCS") where they have yet to learn that LCS doesnt mean the rest of their player base has the same skill level... i have posted time and again for ACTUALL logical reasons for nerfs such as this one but all i've ever gotten was excuses from riot... w/e its their game to sink in a horrible torrent of flames :|

Hellioning2/28/2014, 11:02:12 PM1 votes

It also has the disadvantage of nerfing Ap Sona and AP Ezreal!

I may be their only player, but dammit it's fun!

Jingerbeardman2/28/2014, 11:13:48 PM1 votes

i doubt these are the final numbers for it since a patch came out this week. your numbers and reasoning make some solid points no doubt but id wait and watch before making to many judgement calls.

Andrew7812/28/2014, 11:23:34 PM1 votes

I do agree that Lich Bane needs to be nerfed, but the current change is a bit overboard in my opinion. As of yet, the most frustrating aspect of the Lich Bane I've seen is the massive sieging power behind it rather than giving certain champions extra combo damage in teamfights.

You forgot one champion I hate because of the overpowered Lich Bane: Nidalee

PirSultanAbdal3/1/2014, 12:13:54 AM1 votes

The moment when you realized that nobody actually plays twisted fate anymore.

Kinda funny but saddens me also, because he has more soul and style than most of the champions. Fuckin guy throws a sharp mothafuckin cards out of his pocket and teleports around like crazy.

Avl5213/1/2014, 2:47:30 AM1 votes

I'm against the change mainly because I don't see a point in nerfing an item that is core on champions that are no longer played on a professional level.

I love the item overall, and always build it on a lot of characters (Fizz, Kayle, Akali, Diana, Ziggs, Sona, TF, Nidalee and sometimes on other rare picks.) and what concerns me is the fact that it hits characters like Fizz which is one of my favorite champions more than it hits others. If the change is only because of Kayle and Lulu, then I think it's a mistake. Kayle's Q already got nerfed so one shotting with Q + Lich Bane Nashor's E is harder, and Lulu is mainly a support, if Riot doesn't like the amount of damage and lane bullyness that Lulu brings then nerf her base damages or AP ratios instead of nerfing an item that affects other non picked in LCS but picked in solo queue champs.

Metheus3/1/2014, 5:18:43 AM1 votes

Can I ask how does this affect Ap ezreal I know he's not a viable pick but how bad is this nerf?

Knight Devout3/1/2014, 9:50:07 AM1 votes

Did you check the suggested buffs for Fizz and TF?