1000 PBE Hextech Chest opening spreadsheet to determine the drop rates of many things
I've seen a fair number of people on the boards that are under the impression of Hextech Chests not being worth your money due to the Orange Essence disenchant rate reduction when the new leveling system came online. That being said, people have also said (never confirmed) that rerolling unwanted skin shards is a waste of your Orange Essence. Riot made some changes to the skin shard frequency and added bad luck protection to prevent getting many champ shards from chests that should contain more valuable loot. This is why, in my opinion, shard disenchant rate had to be lowered. Riot didn't aim at lowering the value out of chests, they simply aimed to make the changes at least neutral while still addressing issues we previously had in terms of loot worth.
It's still a random box so you shouldn't expect the most valuable things out of them right from the start and that you'll cheat the system by paying less money for more expensive content. If you get lucky to get it, more power to you. If not, the best solution for you to buy specific content is to buy it directly from the LoL store.
Well today, i aim to begin answering these questions.
I'd really like some concrete data before i start making my assumptions so i decided to do it myself. As i haven't seen any recent attempts from the boards members to do it (and the only data i found was already a year or so old, with a sample size of 100 chests before these new changes to chests hit), we need fresh data to go by. I guess it'd have been easier to have a Rioter do this but they're busy people so i decided to do it for my own wellbeing and since i'm at it, i'll share my findings with everyone.
I aim at a sample size of 1000 chests due to the purchase limit of 25 chests a day, which would pretty much take me 40 days to complete. At that time however, i'll keep adding things to the spreadsheet i come up with and more ways to represent the data i'm getting. I'd like for you to help me out on this one because i'll attempt to answer your questions by examining the data i have on the sheet. Feel free to comment here or on the spreadsheet itself (it has comments enabled) and give me your ideas on how to make it the "most" comprehensive data set on the system as a whole.
I'll just say that specific content (like Mythic skin shards - Hextech exclusive skins and Ultimate skin shards) are going to be hard to come by. Even a sample size of 1000 chests, i don't expect to get a lot of these. My data suggests that Mythic skin shards are still nowhere to be seen from opening chests alone while Ultimate skin shards seem to be only dropping through rerolls. I'm still almost half-way through the opening (420 chests opened as of today) and i'll see if that's still the case until the very end.