is The Forced 50% winrate Real?

Oyee·May 28, 2019·5 votes·2,596 views

Is it? I noticed that after a winstreak it comes a losestreak always. it s a bit weird.

23 Comments

SaezioMay 28, 20193 votes

No, if you are staying in the same rank getting winstrea/losestreak/winstreak/losestreak it means you reached your peak ELO and you need to improve to get past it.

If you are planning on improving stop playing ranked in that account, either make a smurf or spam normals until you feel you play much better than you used to. THEN go back to your original account ranked and see the difference.

GripaAviaraMay 28, 20192 votes

This is such a bullshit logic.

He would reach his peak the moment he is always at team average. If he is constantly better than the rest of his teammates then there no peak just bullshit forced win rate

SaezioMay 28, 20191 votes

Is he though? OP consistently dominates his lane and loses because of his team? You want me to go to OP.GG and compare OP's stats to the rest of his team? let's see. I will edit when I have results.

edit: LOL I don't even need to check anything. OP has been bronze/silver for like 7 seasons. That's not forced winrates that's peaking. Also OP mains support in silver... You can't main the role with the least impact in the game and expect to climb. Op doesn't even play carry supports like pyke/velkoz/brand/zyra he is playing tank supports xD so, champs with 0 carry potential.

KalienorMay 28, 20192 votes

It's "forced" but not in the way you think. When you win, the level of the games increases, to the point they're too difficult for you. Then you start to lose, until your matchmaking falls to a more reachable level. And so on.

It's not uncommon for players to be affected by the results of the previous games, that's one of the things leading to a lot of inconsistency in the matchmaking because you'll amplify this up-and-down effect.

A consistent player like me will rarely have more than 3 or 4 wins/losses in a row, but others can go up to 15-20 games streaks mainly depending on their mental.

Kai GuyMay 28, 20192 votes

Its not even about being to difficult. You just cant pull as much weight when you are not undervalued.

FireDrizzleMay 28, 20192 votes

It's "forced" but not in the way you think. When you win, the level of the games increases, to the point they're too difficult for you. Then you start to lose, until your matchmaking falls to a more reachable level. And so on.

You're talking rubbish honestly, win streaks give you bad teammates. I went on a winstreak with yumi, then I when i got into promos i had troll teams for ages. A promo ending with 2 subhuman players throwing themself solo at the enemy team with baron buff 1 after the other is not representive of the players im playing with getting better.

Kai GuyMay 28, 20191 votes

Lets make a clear expectation. Drizzle when you say streak. How many games is required for that?

FireDrizzleMay 28, 20191 votes

In my first 12 games playing her I got 10 wins, highst clean streak in that was 5 in a row. I learnt how too play with her and found a build with her but then matchmaking was very unfavourable and i was losing instead.

Crispy0SnakeMay 28, 20192 votes

It's not forced, you can win those games

It is natural that you will come to a 50% win rate as you approach the rank you deserve, though. That's because as you win you go against better players and carry on winning until you go against players that are better than you, then you start losing until you then go against players that are worse and if your skill level doesn't change it's normal that over a large amount of games, you get a 50% w/r

ThingamajigMay 28, 20191 votes

no it's actually a 49.8% or somethign like that

learn the concept behind a 0 sum game now realize why league is actually a negative sum game

if you have this win rate this means that the system has put you in a place that accurately represents your abilities to win games

Kai GuyMay 28, 20191 votes

MMR does not need to be zero sum.

you have to run K by accounts. This makes it not Zero sum.

ThingamajigMay 28, 20191 votes

[{quoted}](name=Kai Guy,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=v5NRw7ru,comment-id=00000000,timestamp=2019-05-28T09:01:13.349+0000)

MMR does not need to be zero sum.

you have to run K by accounts. This makes it not Zero sum.

yes it's not 0 sum it's negative sum

Kai GuyMay 28, 20191 votes

Yea? Far as I know it should be inflated not deflated due to population growth over a season.

What exactly makes it negative sum? LP moving slower then MMR?

Doesn't change anything besides your title... wont affect MMR.

ThingamajigMay 28, 20192 votes

[{quoted}](name=Kai Guy,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=v5NRw7ru,comment-id=0000000000000000,timestamp=2019-05-28T09:18:12.162+0000) What exactly makes it negative sum? LP moving slower then MMR?

dodging and leavers

an account starts at lets say 1200 MMR and it goes down and up but for it to go down or up it gets taken from other players or given to other players ie it stays the same (ie 0 sum) but due to leavers in winning games and dodging the MMR actually goes down

this has nothing to do with your 50% win rate tho your 50% win rate comes due to the fact that you are no longer capable of influencing the games outcome as much as you could previously

if you are a D4 player playing in bronze you can get an 80-90% win rate but once you reach d4 you will equalize your win rate to around 50% since you are playing at that level

the system will inflate your winning lp and mmr so that you get to play with diamonds sooner and at lets say at p4 you get to be at 75% win rate and you are playing with diamonds you will then proceed to reach the 50% win rate but since you are getting +30~ and losing -12~ you will reach d4 with a 50% win rate at which point you will start gaining and losing 18-20 points and your win rate will stabalize at 50% after a few hundred games if you dont improve and start climbing

it's the nature of a ladder system it has nothing to do with riot enforcing anything upon you

go play any competitve game and you will experience the same exact thing

Kai GuyMay 28, 20191 votes

I like your reply a good deal. I only have 1 correction. Then a large Data dump of information that you may or may not already know. But want to provide some more indepth support for what you claimed about how MMR reaches a natural result.

but for it to go down or up it gets taken from other players or given to other players ie it stays the same (ie 0 sum) but due to leavers in winning games and dodging the MMR actually goes down

That's **LP **not MMR. One of the claimed reasons its used "Players are punished for queue dodging in a way that makes more sense in terms of progression. Again this reduced dodge rates dramatically" sause Lp is not stated to be use to make a match. MMR is. Losing LP means nothing to the system, despite how much players value it. The LP system plays catchup to MMR and its basically worthless as a measurement on high uncertainty accounts.

Don't get upset with some of the people who will throw your explanation out because you used arbitrarily values to illustrate it. They are looking for a way out and the claim you don't know riots exact system thus you don't know anything more then me, thus both our viewpoints are equally valid is very commonly used.

I do not quite agree with your 49.8% value. Looking at An Elo system with logistical distribution and riots claim of (on average, no more than 4-5 MMR) in 1v1 that would be a full 51%v49%. In reality, I think its quite a bit wider for what's treated as a workable range because of the concept of class intervals (C). 200E (E is Elo points) being used as measurements of C. So 2C = 400E gap. something like 91% V 9% expectation with Logistic probability.

50 to 100 between players on a team shouldn't be breaking. Individually your looking at 57%-43% to 64%-36%. That seems fairly dramatic but if its worded like "at worse the system things that you need to preform 14% better then your average for this to be fair." Your good games then could still reasonable outperform your opponent thou your unlikely to outperform their good games.

You want your system to prevent folks from getting outclassed as much as possible. It not very fun when your best attempts get stomped by some ones casual effort.

So, to my understanding you don't make it zero sum. Its simpler to let it be positive or negative sum and leave it to RNG. You can deal with Inflation and Deflation very easy during Soft resets by bleeding out or pumping up MMR values where needed to bring the ladder back in line. With We variance the wiggle room does make it so the system is not ever truly 50% and it also never locks you into that.

ThingamajigMay 28, 20191 votes

[{quoted}](name=Kai Guy,realm=NA,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=v5NRw7ru,comment-id=000000000000000000000000,timestamp=2019-05-28T20:42:53.828+0000)

I like your reply a good deal. I only have 1 correction.

agreed but i also think in both our examples the % are just "examples" the % difference in performance between a p4 player and a p1 player is miniiscule it really is

the only major difference i see in players between G4 and D4 is just their consistency to do well in their games ie try to stagnate a losing lane or pushing winning lanes with care

you don't really need to be a mechanical genius to be climbing Dopa has been proving that with macro and low mechanical intensive champions it's possible to get rank 1 in the hardest regions just because of his insane consistency of farming and pushing small leads

most players in low elos or even high elos that get stuck just lose their mental over the games they lose and simply don't play enough games with the intent to play to win

tl'dr i agree but on a good day a gold player is capable of winning against a top challenger player on his good day the difference is that the gold player will have that good day once a week where the challenger will have that consistency 9 out of 10 games he plays

DynikusMay 28, 20191 votes

With perfect matchmaking, you would have a 50% winrate with streaks similar to what you'd see when flipping a coin. You would have an exactly equal chance of winning a game as you would losing it.

That said, there's no forced 50% winrate. If there were, climbing would be virtually impossible. You have influence on every single game you play, and plenty of people have both substantially above 50% winrates, as well as substantially below 50%. Riot can't determine the outcome of a match before it happens, and has no way or even reason to force a 50% winrate.

Kai GuyMay 28, 20191 votes

Define a "streak" # of games please.

letsfeedtogetherMay 28, 20191 votes

how is it weird what can come after a winning streak...

SaiannaMay 28, 20191 votes

yep. It's real.

Kai GuyMay 28, 20191 votes

Your gonna need to provide # of games you consider a Streak.

lolipopevelynnMay 28, 20191 votes

[{quoted}](name=Hi im Lift,realm=EUW,application-id=3ErqAdtq,discussion-id=v5NRw7ru,comment-id=,timestamp=2019-05-28T08:49:46.175+0000)

Is it? I noticed that after a winstreak it comes a losestreak always. it s a bit weird.

yes. the system "tests" you after a winstreak to see if you deserve the well earned MMR you got by forcing you to carry players that are lower MMR than yourself as you face higher MMR opponents. super unfair, basically you have to 1v5 in those "test" games to climb.