What I don't understand is how people think winrate doesn't mean anything

Arabed··2 votes·841 views

Then they come up and present the argument that they have a 55% winrate with X champion over a ~100 games pool size and are like omg winrate doesn't mean anything man look at my winrate with this champ it doesn't mean their op. First of all, 100 games is nothing. If you played 100,000 games then I guarantee you your winrate will be much much closer to 50%. The bigger the sample size is the closer you will get to your target. If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 7 times and tails 3 times, that doesn't mean flipping a coin is 70-30 in terms of probability. If you flipped that coin 10,000 times, it will get closer to 50-50. If you flip it 100,000 times, it will get even closer to 50-50 and so on... So you coming and saying I have a 60% winrate with urgot means nothing. Maintain that 60% winrate over 1000's of games then come and say winrate means nothing.

Second of all, it depends on the champions popularity. If a champion X has a popularity of 30% and wins 55% of the time, that means of all the games going on in league of legends that champion is going to be picked 30% of the time and wins 55% of the time. If 100,000 games are played and X champion has a 30% popularity, that champion is played in 30,000 games out of those 100,000. Also, that champ is winning 55% of the 30,000 games. Champion X wins 16500 and loses 13500 in 100,000 games between all elos. Now if you have the opposite, champion Y has 45% winrate and 30% popularity over 100,000 games played, that champion will win 13500 games and lose 16500. If you increase the sample size to 1,000,000 games it will make an even bigger gap. Champion X wins way more than champ Y. Statistically speaking, champion X is stronger than champion Y. But winrate and popularity doesn't mean everything. There are many other factors that go in such as champion difficulty, mechanics, how well a champion scales and so on. Take lee sin for an example, everyone complains he is op but he wins way less than he loses. Why is this? He has a higher skillcap than the average champion. Not everyone can insec like in the lcs, and one misplay can cost you the game.

TL-DR: winrate and popularity are relative and determine how much more/less a champion wins over a huge scale. Your win/rate according to lolking doesn't mean squat because the sample size is small. Higher winrate doesn't necessarily mean op, it means the champ wins more in general(could be because that champion is op, skillcap, playstyle, how bad you are, etc...). So yes winrate doesn't mean everything, but it does mean a lot compared to what most people think.

6 Comments

junglerboy161 votes

It's not that they don't think it means anything, it's that they know that it doesn't mean everything. Big difference.

insaiyanbacca1 votes

it does mean something it just cant be your entire argument also winrate combined with pickrate is a bigger factor

Erockandroll1 votes

The other problem is that win rate does not paint the whole picture. Win rate alone does not tell you if a champions OP. Much less WHY their OP.

And I feel the WHY is where people disagree when it comes

"OMG Riven does too much damage plz nerf" "Rito, your not nerfing her where she needs it, Her F*cking damage."

um no, Riven is a Light fighter/assassin. She's suppose to do that much damage. Riot is not trying to gut any particular champion, and their Trying to maintain their play style as best they can. Which is why they start by peeling power from other (less obvious) parts of her kit. Particularly anything that would conflict with her role.

Well, She has a large AD scaling shield, and a fair amount of CC, AND she is going to build a Hydra anyway so she really does not have any need for massive amounts of Health Regen.

Did this gut Her? well maybe for a little bit. But she reappeared on the fields of Justice, performing the same role she did before.

DrNova1 votes

You cant use the ole "flip a coun 1000 times" argument to talk about champ winrates. Winrates have a ton more influenceing them then chance. Player skill, champ strength, how often used, ect. Winrate is a DECENT, AT BEST, indicator for very vauge champ info.

But consider less popular champs with high winrates, simply becayse less people play them, and those that do know them. Or more popular champs with lower winrates, just because everyone plays them even less skilled people.

Winrate is unreliable as a judgment factor because there are a shit ton of variables affecting it, many of which you dont know.

Sona Ping1 votes

They know that win rate doesn't mean anything because they know how statistics and data work. Further, it's not hard to find champions whose win rates blatantly disprove the facile arguments made by people who think that win rates and pick rates matter.

It is 100% true that there is a positive correlation between height and vocabulary size but no one should be foolish enough to think it evidence that learning words makes people taller.

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