I wanna know the win percentage for the team who gets first dragon

Arabed·Dec 3, 2014·38 votes·7,144 views

Would you care to share rito?

75 Comments

SecretAgentHulkDec 3, 201412 votes

I understand the context of the question to be that dragon is a snowballing mechanic, and I agree. At the same time, I wonder what percentage of those wins is due to teamwork, and what percentage is due to snowballing with dragon buff. My experience in Bronze (normals not ranked) is that dragon is more of an indicator of teamwork than a huge snowball buff. What is it like if you're a better player?

RoyaiChaosDec 3, 201412 votes

mhm The first team to get the dragon is usually the better team. Even if dragon literally gave nothing (but people don't realize it and thought it still gave buffs) the first team to get it would still probably have a higher win percent.

GundayMondayDec 3, 20145 votes

Would be interesting to look at the games where Pantheon or Wukong solo-sneak a dragon at level 2-3. No teamwork necessarily, but you could still see if the damage boost helps the snowball happen.

RoyaiChaosDec 4, 20142 votes

Actually, at levels 2-3 when most people have ~90 or so ad and 40 ap, 8% isn't that much. The old dragon if soloed at level 2-3 would probably give the same amount or even more stats in items. Anyways, it's not that difficult to ward around drag if the enemy has those champions and steal it from them when the time comes. It might actually be fun to have some more level 2-4 fights instead of the boring farming phase we have now.

Finally, just want to say that no shit the damage boost helps the snowball. The only way it won't help snowball is if it gives no stats at all or actually hurt the team that killed it. The old dragon helped snowball too (and imo it became harder to get back from because all drags gave stats while now only the first, fourth, and fifth ones do).

Rock RockburghDec 4, 20143 votes

The issue isn't that the 8% (6%) damage is a huge deal early on-- the issue is that you now have an advantage for later dragons. The enemy might not have a timer, and your next dragon will be move speed, which you really can't afford to undervalue.

Early dragons aren't good because they're early dragons. Early dragons are good because you need them for late dragons.

GundayMondayDec 4, 20141 votes

It's an inch though. Sure it's not a lot at early levels, but it's enough to maybe land a few extra cs or have one less auto to seal a kill. Plus, like Rock Rockburgh says below me, it sets up the LATER dragons, and it also gives you the dmg buff for LATER in the game when it DOES matter. You also have dragon control to stop the other team from getting the same bonuses as easily.

So yeah, not a huge gamechanger, but not insignificant either.

Drunk RummateDec 4, 20142 votes

mhm The first team to get the dragon is usually the better team. Even if dragon literally gave nothing (but people don't realize it and thought it still gave buffs) the first team to get it would still probably have a higher win percent.

^this

taking first dragon takes coordination and a properly played early game from multiple players

NeoKiraDec 4, 20141 votes

I think that saying "better team gets the dragon, that's normal" is a little bit flawed. Some teams may be better suited for the late game. This, however, removes a large amount of a champions ability to reach the late game. How long does it take for your champion to become stronger than the enemy champion? Even longer if the enemy team has a percentage increase on damage. Also, people should take into account that the first and second dragon make it easier to get dragon. The first dragon gives more ap and ad, meaning you can take drag faster. The second buff gives more damage to minions and monsters, meaning you can take drag faster. Which means that you snowball not only the game a little bit, but also dragon buffs. Early gamers have drag control. But it's rather hard for late gamers to carry against equally skilled teams. It is a fact that if two teams have equally skilled players and one has far more control over the early game than the other, that that team is almost guarantee'd to win these days. Early game gives control over a large amount of the pace of the game. Now it hasn't always been impossible for people to win with late gamers against equally skilled players on early gamers, but the issue with the current drag is how valuable it actually is, and how much more it benefits some champions than others. You can catch up with gold advantages by farming, catching enemies out, taking turrets, etc. But an advantage like the new drag's seems rather hard to catch up with. So this means that the new drag is basically a buff to an early gamer's early game, late game, and snowballing potential as they can take more drags with greater ease after the buffs it gives, and as early gamers are already inherently good at snowballing games, this is quite a ridiculous buff to them in many ways.

SecretAgentHulkDec 4, 20141 votes

What you're saying is conceptually correct, but my experience in duo- and trio-queue leads me to believe that being even two or three dragons behind is no guarantee of loss. Excluding games where someone is being stupid to begin with, my friends and I have maybe a 50-50 chance of pulling it together and coming back from a bad early game.

I guess what I'm saying is now I wonder how dragon affects 5-man teams. I get what you're saying but I still think teamwork is more important than dragon.

NeoKiraDec 4, 20142 votes

I agree that teamwork is more important, my point was that it isn't the only factor that decides things. Drag now gives a huge advantage to specific groups of people, and it is way easier for specific groups of people, mainly early gamers, to get drag. Teamwork is more important, even individual skill can trump the new drag, but when skill is not the factor in the equation (ie, we have two teams of pretty much the same amount of skill), drag is a huge factor that shifts the way the game works. Teamwork is more important definitely, but if we're talking about snowballing champions being played on skilled players, they're going to be way more effective than they have previously been.

TalamareDec 3, 20149 votes

THERE IS NO CONTEXT...

Unless we know what the win % is before the Dragon changes, there is no context

For all we know before the team that got first Dragon won 95% of the team, and the change actually REDUCED it to 73%

Again, we need history to make informed comments

CaptnJakSparrowDec 3, 20147 votes

So, if you're on blue, get first blood, and dragon. You obtain a 86% chance of winning. Well done Riot.

TussDec 3, 20144 votes

But you also gotta factor in all the win rates of all the champs in the match.

IxozielDec 3, 201413 votes

So, if you're on blue, get first blood, and dragon. You obtain a 86% chance of winning. Well done Riot.

Wow, it's almost like the better team is winning most of the games. Jesus someone fix this now. You should be able to feed first blood and lose the first dragon, and STILL have a good chance of victory. Can you believe that killing the enemy nexus gives you a 100% chance of victory? Completely absurd. When you kill the enemy nexus, there should be a 60% chance of you winning and a 40% chance that the enemy wins.

JunkοDec 3, 20144 votes

I don't think picking Panth or WW and killing Dragon as soon as it spawns means you are a good player

RoyaiChaosDec 4, 20142 votes

But a good player will know that Panth and WW are able to kill Dragon as soon as it spawns and steal it.

NeoKiraDec 4, 20141 votes

Ik where you're coming from, but it is a fact that there are early game team comps and late game team comps, and early game team comps have a much, much easier chance of getting all of those things. Now early game team comps need to be able to snowball a lead to win the game, yes. But it also has to not feel ridiculously hard to win a game using a late game team comp. Your argument assumes that all people thrive at the same point in the game. Would you argue that at 50 minutes caitlyn should be able to beat vayne because she won lane? Would you argue that nasus shouldn't be able to duel lee sin at 50 minutes because lee stomped lane? I don't think you would argue that, no.

SummonerSquidDec 4, 20141 votes

So, if you're on blue, get first blood, and dragon. You obtain a 86% chance of winning. Well done Riot.

That's not necessarily true. This is a common misunderstanding of Conditional Probability.

MattAkhavanDec 3, 20147 votes

In patch 4.20 first dragon led to 74% victory in patch 4.19 (before jungle patch) 72% victory

The team that gets the first dragon is most likely the team that has more pressure anyways. You can't take dragon without a strategic advantage like teleport, superior vision, or timing ( bot lane recall or kill). If a team has more pressure at the first dragon that team will likely have more pressure later on as well, not because of the dragon but because they are already playing better and being rewarded for playing better. The only way to get dragon when not taking a strategic advantage is to randomly steal it which happens.

Source: http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/rankings/win-stats#firstdragon https://web.archive.org/web/20141105124300/http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/rankings/win-stats#firstdragon

BudupopsDec 3, 20146 votes

dragon is so dam snowbally

Kojiro SasakiDec 4, 20145 votes

So let me get this straight.

Warwick: 60% winrate First tower 68% winrate First dragon 74% winrate First blood 59% winrate

If you put all of these factors together, thats like a 2000% winrate!

Get winning, my friends.

FiendOfOneDec 3, 20144 votes

74%.

http://www.leagueofgraphs.com/rankings/win-stats

CozarkianDec 3, 20145 votes

Wow, first tower is 68%, I think I find that more surprising.

AlphariteDec 3, 20144 votes

It's at 74% which looks ridiculous until you see that it was 72% pre 4.20.

GorbacheDec 3, 20142 votes

It's at 74% which looks ridiculous until you see that it was 72% pre 4.20.

Ah nice! It confirms what I'm saying above that after 10 minutes if you are in the lead to get dragon, you would normally win the game anyway.

JunkοDec 3, 20141 votes

But the old dragon was usually gotten like 15 min into the game. Pantheon, WW or Wukong can solo it at like levels 3 now

GorbacheDec 3, 20143 votes

But the old dragon was usually gotten like 15 min into the game. Pantheon, WW or Wukong can solo it at like levels 3 now

There are easy counter to this. When I'm support I almost always have a ward around the dragon pit and even more if there are someone on the enemy team which can solo it. Are you sure it was an average of 15 minutes? I remember almost always taking dragon around the 10-12 minutes mark before. Since those stats are the same across tiers, I'm going to assume that there are rarely any 3 minutes dragon that has a relevant impact at challenger level and the win rate is very similar.

Another issue regarding dragon, I saw a Jarvan timing his dash perfectly when dragon was about to breath and he stopped his animation completely. They need to make dragon breath regardless if it switches target or not and probably go through abilities like Panth passive. I was watching the OGN this morning, they were playing on patch 4.20 and with a support you can pretty much duo dragon very early because he'll never use his fire breath.

JunkοDec 3, 20141 votes

It's really easy to counter what you do as a jungler too, clear blue-wolves-red then smite chickens and go to drag, you will see the ward and kill it then pretend you are backing off (though some people will come back to ward again) and use your trinket to ward.

And yeah the main issue with the new dragon is the fact that his attack can be dodged, it's slow and even interrupted. I got a Stattik Shiv on Kalista and then soloed the dragon after shoving the lane and haven't got hit once. If they at least speed up his attacks a bit (and maybe reduce the dmg to compensate) and have it's attack not be interrupteable then i will be perfectly fine with the dragon.

TalamareDec 3, 20143 votes

Stats website says its 73%

Also 59% towards the team that gets First Blood

AHeroNamedHawkeDec 3, 20142 votes

Stats website says its 73%

Also 59% towards the team that gets First Blood

lol jesus christ

Rock RockburghDec 4, 20141 votes

Since you might not have seen the other posts about it here, it was 72% before the patch; it actually made a very small difference in winrates.

TalamareDec 3, 20143 votes

Just getting Blue Side gives you a 52% advantage too!

Cale017Dec 3, 20142 votes

That's just because of the UI blocking a small portion of the bottom of the screen when you're on Purple side. Can't really be helped.

The insane early dominance granted by a level one Pantheon dragon kill can.

Thunder DreamssDec 3, 20144 votes

Yes, the UI can't be helped. I dream of a day when our games will be in three dimensions and we can move our point of view to look from a different direction. Perhaps the technology for this kind of sci-fi might be invented within our lifetimes!

Cale017Dec 3, 20145 votes

You signed up to play a top down MOBA. If you want one that's got a free camera, Smite is just down the road and to the left.

CoCo BoEyDec 3, 20142 votes

Or they could just extend the zoom ...

Thunder DreamssDec 3, 20143 votes

You said it can't be helped, I'm merely explaining exactly why it can't be helped. No need to get snippy.

Now if you instead meant to say that Riot can't be bothered to fix it... Well that would be a bit different now wouldn't it.

Cale017Dec 3, 20142 votes

Hard to listen to the guy being sarcastic telling me not to be snippy. Especially when I'm not. My point here is that nobody who signs up for League is surprised at the perspective you play from. You know what it's going to be going into it. Getting haughty over the idea that other games have implemented user controlled cameras isn't going to change that, and if it's that big of a deal to you then there are games that cater to that playstyle that you might enjoy more than one with a fixed perspective.

By "it can't be helped" I mean that it honestly isn't that big of a deal so long as you're being careful. It's a bit annoying, but only as much as when there's a loading bar at the bottom of your browser. It's there, it isn't blocking a whole lot, and you only really notice it when you look at it. Either way, the UI has to be there, and even if you go to another game, Smite for instance, there will still be a UI that will still be blocking a portion of your screen. Being able to rotate it just means that you're as liable to move it over something that you might need to see as that you'll rotate it to where you have the perfect view.

Thunder DreamssDec 3, 20142 votes

Look, I was simply lampooning the assertion that the perspective/UI "can't be helped." It can be. Apparently back in beta it even was helped but the feature was removed for some reason.

Cale017Dec 3, 20141 votes

You can redesign it, make it smaller, less cluttered, take up less of the screen, but it'll never be completely gone. It doesn't even matter what genre of game it is, there has to be a way of communicating basic values and important information to the player. Maps for action or RPG games. HUDs for FPS. Life and special bars for fighting games.

That's my point. You can never get rid of a UI, you can try and make it take up less of the screen. But no matter what it has to be there. Complaining about it changing the win percentage by a measly 2% is just pointless.

Thunder DreamssDec 3, 20141 votes

Flip the camera for purple (or just add a "camera flip" option you can use whenever). Now both teams have exactly the same difficulties with the UI. The world doesn't need to be perfect to just be equal.

Cale017Dec 4, 20141 votes

You're making SUCH a big deal over the camera perspective when in all reality it has next to nothing to do with the outcome of a match. I've won just as many matches playing purple side as blue, and lost just as many playing blue as purple. What side of a map a team is on during the LCS isn't what decides the victors, how they play with what they have is. If the people who are getting paid to play this game at a level of skill most of us can only dream of can deal with it, so can the rest of us.

Thunder DreamssDec 4, 20141 votes

Historically even pro games have shown a bias in favor of blue side. Your statement, more accurately, should be "If the people who are getting paid to play this game at a level of skill most of us can only dram of cannot deal with it, neither can the rest of us."

I will grant, given how the new map's new perspective seems to have helped close the gap in ranked play, we may see that bias finally disappear from pro play entirely this coming season. Even if it does tho, that doesn't change that fact that Riot could easily make the UI perfectly balanced and instead chose not to.

Cale017Dec 4, 20141 votes

A bias for the camera angle does not indicate it affecting how the match turns out. That's just them saying, "yeah it's a bit annoying during the early game." It doesn't change that purple side wins at about the same rate as blue. The gap in percentage is so miniscule that it's easily overcome by

and follow me here

playing well.

Make the UI balanced? It isn't a champion stat or an ability, and they've already reduced the amount of clutter on the bottom by moving buff icons over to the left so you have more sight of the bottom center of your screen. The UI isn't "unbalanced", there's not even a way to say that it would be. Either it's there taking up room or it isn't. If you want to play without a map, a healthbar, team indicators, item panels, and ability icons you're welcome to. Me? I'm going to farm a few more CS than the blue sider and wreck him all the same.

Thunder DreamssDec 4, 20141 votes

Are you by chance arguing just to argue? You can't seem to find a consistent angle you're trying to argue for, you just seem to argue with anything I post.

First you say "Yes, UI gives an advantage to blue but there's nothing Riot can do" and now you seem to be saying "UI doesn't give an advantage at all so there's no need for Riot to do anything."

Cale017Dec 4, 20141 votes

I was going to ask you much the same. You're making a huge deal out of something that's almost meaningless, and demanding things that are entirely nonsensical.

I never said that UI doesn't give an advantage at all. I said that whatever advantage it gives is completely overcome or negated by smart plays. I'll repeat myself: "The gap in percentage is so miniscule that it's easily overcome by

and follow me here

playing well."

I didn't say there's no advantage. There's no denying that purple side has a teensy bit less of their screen to work with than blue. But if having a very small amount of your screen covered is enough to make you lose a match, you have some problems with your gameplay that seeing the bottom inch of your screen isn't going to fix.

Thunder DreamssDec 4, 20141 votes

Your argument has changed from "there's nothing Riot can do" to "there's no reason Riot should do it."

My argument has been "Riot could do it if they wanted to" the whole time.

Do you honestly think Riot so incompetent they cannot implement a flip camera option?

Idiom4Dec 4, 20141 votes

This would make the bot lane become the top lane for purple side. Which would be strange lol.

Cale017Dec 4, 20141 votes

This.

asdbnmrtyDec 3, 20143 votes

Probably really high because...

What is suppose to happen: We lost out on 1st dragon. Mark the time. 1 min before respawn get wards around the area and secure crab. Everyone needs to group up and be in position to fight prior to dragon spawning, we need to put up a good fight if they want the next one. Push out lanes at 1:30 then everyone head to dragon. Save ulties and summoner spells if you can.

What everyone actually does: OMG top didn't come, GG scrub bronze just AFK. Jungle smited chickens before coming, no smite I hate these kids. Time? I don't know it's jungler's job to track not mine. I'm smurfing I'm totally challenger not my fault. We lost this game already I'm not even playing seriously. Reported everyone for harassment.