I only hinted at it above because I was on mobile and tired of typing, but there's a huge big caveat of "these items are not as comparable as we're making out here." The items don't exist in isolation; a full analysis would also consider the kits of the champs building the items and how those items interact with the rest of the item ecosystem (synergy and counters).
Quick example: AA hyperscaling (AD x AS x Crit x Pen; kind of LS and LDR passive) and the way AA stats are distributed on items:
Zeal items have exclusively multiplicative stats. They aren't effective without AD first, but their late-game impact is unrivaled (only offset by their cheap price; a 3k+ zeal item would be absurd).
AP carries have no Zeal equivalent. CDR is somewhat like AS (and even there we're ignoring utility), and there's no equivalent of crit*. The most Zeal-like AP item is Morello's, except it also gives 100 AP.
As a result, AP's care far more about their early midgame spike. The few rare exceptions (Cass, Azir) are the result of how their kits scale (passives particularly), not their items.
I'm not interested in spending the time to do a really in-depth analysis that touches on everything, so I'm not going to make a serious rebuttal to your argument, just a couple comments.
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You should add not only AP from runes, but also from masteries and maybe a or some similar inventory-filling item. I guess at that point you should have around 300 AP without DC's passive.
15 from d_ring, at lvl 10 natural talent gives 19 (math below), so that's around 270. 290 if you toss in an amp tome. There's room to dispute, although I will not do so, since my level<->item estimate was pretty rough to begin with (and also level vs item scaling changes based on how well you cs, towers taken, etc).
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counting 25% bonus is ONLY for basic attack damage (and not on-hits/abilities that are very common among marksmen, first of all the already mentioned
that is a consistent part of damage dealt against high HP tanks in lategame).
There's also a subset of adcs who lose dps from using abilities (cait, jinx), so whether ability damage is a consistent part of damage dealt is debatable. Again, place I'd respond if I wanted to dive that deep.
pretty much similar to IE [...] I'm quite sure you are overrating IE passive, if you say you still are not convinced, but it's just my opinion.
We've established it's a bit silly to try to make an exact comparison without going super in-depth, and I don't want to put in that kind of effort right now. This begs the question,
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What's the point of comparing them in the first place?
Overall I agree with your conclusion that they are approximately equivalent in terms of power. My point is that, for roughly comparable items/passives, IE's build path is much, much better.
I don't think people are passing DC by because it's numerically bad. I think it's because the item is very hard to build without sitting on piles of gold and delaying your mid-game power spike, which most AP champs value highly. It's also sad for both items that you have to sit on 3 components, so they're harder to build the later the game goes -- somewhat counter-intuitive for the premier big ticket damage items.
In conclusion, by the way, you did a good analysis.
Thanks; you too. I've enjoyed this conversation. A welcome change of pace on the Boards :)