Promos don't test your skill

KING ATTILA·Apr 29, 2016·149 votes·4,748 views

They test your fucking patience by seeing how many trolls can each team get. Better hope the other team has more trolls than you! [slayer-pantheon-thumbs]

93 Comments

DaenApr 29, 201629 votes

Moreover, promos also require the player's winrate distribution to correspond to the exact game on which you start your series. If you have a 55% win rate but your wins don't happen to line up with the promo, you won't progress despite the fact you're winning more than losing.

ElysMustacheApr 29, 20163 votes

You're no math major.

DaenApr 30, 201611 votes

{quoted}

You're no math major.

Troll for TrumpApr 30, 201610 votes

Neither are you.

ElysMustacheApr 30, 20162 votes

I can tell you that if you go into a three game series, with an individual chance of 55% of winning each game, you have a 57.5% chance of winning the series, or a 79.8% chance if you have the free win from promo assist.

For a five game series, you have a 59.3% of winning, and a 75.9% chance with the free win.

It has nothing to do with how your wins "line up".

You are more likely to win a series than an individual game, so series actually help you. Unless your winrate is less than 50%, then it becomes more difficult to win a series than a game.

But continue downvoting me please with your gambler's fallacy, illogic, and emotionalism.

Troll for TrumpApr 30, 20161 votes

You're...kinda a dick.

ElysMustacheApr 30, 20162 votes

It bothers me when people don't use reason.

DaenApr 30, 20163 votes

{quoted}

I can tell you that if you go into a three game series, with an individual chance of 55% of winning each game, you have a 57.5% chance of winning the series, or a 79.8% chance if you have the free win from promo assist.

The key here is that each game is not individually a 55% chance of winning. The cumulative probability for the player is 55%, but each individual game varies wildly in statistical probability and involves tons of other factors ranging from behavior to player skill to champion choice.

If you have a coin you're flipping, that's obviously a 50% chance per flip to land on heads. If, however, the coin is sentient and has some agency over its rotation, it's no longer a statistical certainty that the coin will be 50% each time. It might decide it will land on heads on flip, maybe land on tails the next, but the fact the coin is changing the outcome makes individual statistics no longer relevant.

For a five game series, you have a 59.3% of winning, and a 75.9% chance with the free win.

So overall, let's keep something in mind: In order to get into the series to begin with, a game needs to be won. The series itself is 3/5 games, but in 100% of cases one additional win is required to start the series in the first place. This means that we end up with the following probabilities if they were actually based on a 55% individual game chance:

Divisional Promotion
1 win to get in, best 2/3 once in.
- Out of four games, the player needs to win three.
Probability of doing so:
- No Assist - 39.1%
- Assist - 75.8%
Tier Promotion
1 win to get in, best 3/5 once in.
- Out of six games, the player needs to win four.
Probability of doing so:
- No Assist - 44.2%
- Assist - 74.5%

Now, as we've established, this is just a theoretical model with no bearing on reality. Each game is not a 55% chance to win, it's just that when cumulative across the player's entire history it is 55%. That being said, let's take a look at those non-assisted numbers.

In order for the player to overcome the fact a divisional series requires a specific distribution (bringing that 39.1% chance up to 55%), the player needs to spike a winrate of ~64.5% over the same 3/4 win circumstance. For the player to overcome the tier series (bringing that 44.2% chance up to 55%), the player needs to spike a winrate of ~60.5% over the same 4/6 win circumstance.

More importantly than all of this, if your win rate is already 55% why is it a good thing for promotional series' to require you to, statistically, perform 2-3 full series' in order to progress? If a player's win rate is 55% it means they are winning more than losing, and I expect that player's MMR to reflect it.

Promos, then, are arbitrarily holding back a player's visible rank (LP) while their MMR continues to improve until the player can overcome the fact that promos are statistically less likely to be won.

You are more likely to win a series than an individual game, so series actually help you.

When not accounting for assist, I don't see how this is the case. Keep in mind, as well, that assist doesn't work above Gold so it's back to square one for everyone above that point.

ToaBroBabyApr 30, 20161 votes

Would you mind elaborating the formulas and values used and how that results in your values?

ElysMustacheApr 30, 20161 votes

I used a spreadsheet. You can calculate your own values by entering your historical win percentage in cell C5.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x3Oapp_emOT8x1Y3x-W0Ke3kAoLvLreFVoxsMGqUNJI/edit#gid=0

1 800 MID LANEApr 29, 20164 votes

Technically, it would be 66% if it's a 3-game series and 60% if it's a 5-game series. Your point stands, but I just thought I'd throw out the numbers.

DaenApr 30, 20168 votes

{quoted}

Technically, it would be 66% if it's a 3-game series and 60% if it's a 5-game series. Your point stands, but I just thought I'd throw out the numbers.

I must have been unclear. If a player has a 55% win ratio, this means that overall they are winning 55% of their games. A pattern can theoretically emerge that is higher within a small space of time, which means that over a period of 3 games you might win two of them and thus have a 66% win rate for those three games, but overall still have a 55% win percentage.

What I'm getting at is that this 55% win rate needs to match up perfectly with the 66%/60% requirements of promotional series or the player won't progress, despite clearly winning more than losing.

Additionally, keep in mind that technically it's actually 75% for a 3-game series and 66% for a 5-game series. You have to win a game to get into the series in the first place, so the required distributions are 3/4 wins and 4/6 wins.

LlaniteApr 30, 20163 votes

You progress in term of MMR.

With higher MMR than you peers, once you promote (finally), you gain more LP per win and lose less per loss.

Also keep in mind, everyone has to pass the promo, so theoretically if the series are to be removed, everyone would get a bit higher than than they are currently, and you end up exactly where you are.

GaleWinUnleashedApr 30, 20164 votes

Don't forget the game you won to get to 100 LP.

VasilisGreenApr 30, 20161 votes

what do you mean?

TNHA BaritoneApr 29, 20167 votes

Never had a troll this season in my promos. I've had feeders and ragers (who rage because they fed) but that can be avoided completely with knowledgeable pings and stuff.

PDE5 InhibApr 29, 20165 votes

Feeders are trolls.

billxxApr 29, 20164 votes

Alright you have a strong misconception of a feeder

PDE5 InhibApr 29, 20169 votes

Nope. If you're feeding, you're trolling.

Unless you have a misconception that having a bad game = feeding? Because there is a clear difference between feeding and having a bad game lol.

TNHA BaritoneApr 29, 20166 votes

Feeding = Dying to the enemy team many times

You can be having a bad game b/c you are feeding.

billxxApr 29, 20167 votes

Feeding is going 0/8 Trolling is going 0/24

DarkRitualApr 30, 20162 votes

Feeding =/= Intentional Feeding

notmebuthimMay 1, 20161 votes

[slayer-pantheon-popcorn]

TNHA BaritoneApr 29, 20161 votes

Nope

HahahahyenaApr 29, 20161 votes

feeding = bad game feeders = trolling

TNHA BaritoneApr 29, 20163 votes

So ignorant..

Feeders take part in feeding so how could they be different things.

ArxMessorApr 30, 20164 votes

Whether Feeders are also Trolls depends on their intentions.

Feeders are players that give up unnecessary deaths repeatedly in a single game.

If a player is feeding intentionally then that player is trolling and is a Troll.

If a player is feeding unintentionally then the player is having a bad game.

Example:

Player A unintentionally dies 3 times during the laning phase. Player A is feeding and having a bad game. Player B spams the "?" ping on Player A's corpse the third time Player A dies.

Player A tilts into oblivion.

Player A decides to run straight down mid lane as soon as he spawns for the rest of the game. He is still feeding but is no longer having a bad game but is trolling and is a Troll.

The DeckownerApr 29, 20166 votes

Promo is more about luck

KnalxzApr 29, 20165 votes

Easy way to ensure no trolls in promos, just pair people in their promos with each other.

Really I don't see how Halo 3 did this 9 years ago but no other company can manage this task now.

PunkkeeApr 30, 20161 votes

Please elaborate i've never played Halo 3 :(

Shac NorrisApr 30, 20161 votes

oh, come here for a second, i need to educate you.

PunkkeeMay 1, 20161 votes

u have my attention

Shac NorrisMay 2, 20161 votes

someone else already did it for me..

KnalxzMay 1, 20161 votes

In Halo 3 when you were about to rank up the game automatically paired you with other people who were about to do the same. You'd have entire lobby's of people all ranked near you all in their promos. Though promos where invisible in halo 3 you never got paired with another guy who wasn't about to rank up, on the enemy or your team.

TallyZrgApr 29, 20163 votes

Wish league would do away with "Promos". You're obviously good enough to earn 100 LP (sometimes multiple times) just bump you up to the next skill floor and work your way up to the ceiling.

Much like the old ranking systems of old in other PvP games ( or games with a PvP element).

PunkkeeApr 30, 20162 votes

lets be honest

You're obviously good enough to find friends who can boost you enough to earn 100 LP

TallyZrgMay 2, 20161 votes

Aren't we all carried from time to time kappa :P

BluePolarizerApr 30, 20163 votes

But dynamic queue solves that problem. Promos are no issue if you have 4 d1 smurfs carrying you.

MunchCrunchLunchApr 29, 20162 votes

oh yeah don't bother in promos. trolls in 9/10

Mysticman89Apr 29, 20162 votes

Well that's part of why promo helper is a thing up until gold 1, and one would like to think plat+ people are mostly not trolls. Which is wishful thinking. But probably better than bronze land.

B1naryB0tApr 30, 20162 votes

"The only way to win your promos is if the enemy team has someone in their promos and then the trolls balance out." -TSM TheOddOne

Only Play DariusApr 29, 20161 votes

At one point last season Riot supposedly stated they would make promos just one game.

SpongebobIsLifeApr 30, 20161 votes

they did, just for gold and under though.

Only Play DariusApr 30, 20162 votes

hmm, im silver and i'm still getting best out of 3

XazuApr 30, 20161 votes

That's because you haven't been in promos for the next division yet this season. I.e if you are s3 you get into promos for s2 and you fail, next time you make it to promos for s2 you will be granted a free win.

Only Play DariusApr 30, 20162 votes

Ok. A little confusing though.

BronzoidMay 1, 20161 votes

Ranked isn't about skill, it's about perseverance.

tainteddazeMay 1, 20161 votes

see what you need to do. Is get a free promo victory for doing well to begin with. Then maybe the luck of league will match the enemy with 5 trolls and they all afk at the start of game for free 10mins sub win.

notmebuthimMay 1, 20161 votes

Every Bronze promo series has at minimum 1 game that has a troll and 1 game that has someone feeding there ass off, and that's just for the 3 game series :(