why do some champions winrates go DOWN with experience?

Veraska··1 votes·4,593 views

If you go on champion.gg you'll see champions generally have a higher winrate with players who play them a lot, this is reasonable the more you play a champion the better you should do with that champion

But a number of champions winrates go DOWN after a certain point, and I wonder why that is

Why does a heimerdinger with 75-100 games generally perform better then a heimerdinger with 125+?

9 Comments

Sightless664 votes

If you play a champion a lot, you'll probably get better at the game due to having more experience with the game. A Heimer main with 125 games is more likely to be plat or diamond than a heimer main with 75-100 just because he's played more. At those levels you get matched against higher-level players who probably know the counter to your champion and can be adept at exploiting it, and they're less likely to make common mistakes against the champion. For a champion like Heimer who gets way stronger when his opponents don't know how to fight him, this can make a big difference in his performance.

Cheat Engine zZz1 votes

Because those champions are a bit 'troll pick' ish (some might say unique) and it's easy to be good with them, or simply win game with them, but your average will still tend towards 50% over time.

Lost In Time1 votes

I'm bad at wording for statistics, but League is like a coin toss. Eventually, you'll have a 50% winrate just like you'll have a 50% chance of a certain outcome while flipping a coin.

If you were to flip a coin 10 times, you'll probably end up more heads/tails than the other (let's say 70% one over the other)

However, if you were to flip it 100, 500, 1000 times, then the outcomes will look closer and closer to 50% as to whether you get heads or tails.

So basically, while you're probably stomping hard with your main at the start, the more games you play, the more natural occurences of League will skew your winrate down, like leavers, stompfests or generally having a bad day.

Not sure if I'm explaining it right, someone else can help you better, but that's the general philosophy behind it.

pripustas1 votes

I think it's just luck. In poker the bigger your sample is, the better you can tell what your strong/weak sides are, and how you're doing on average. I think same thing applies here. Also, another explanation is that people who have bigger game samples with those champions are in higher elo, so their win rate is worse, because opponents are better.

Penns1 votes

Maybe Heimer mains with 125+ games are just playing in higher elo where they lose more or... illuminati?

MisterHealYoGirl1 votes

It's probably just a quirk of the data; the Donger's games played are low, and so the variability is quite high. It's also likely that higher games played correlates with higher ranking, and people who know how to deal with Heimerdinger are more prevalent at higher ranks.

trash sion1 votes

I'm not sure if this applies to Heimer because I've never played him, but let me theorize.

For an easy champion, you may start playing them at a relatively low level. You're learning, so this explains the low win rate with very few games played.

If you play this champion while leveling up and eventually get into Ranked, the opponents get much harder. While leveling, you were probably improving your winrate. For champions with a low skill ceiling, when you start playing ranked, your winrate will drop considerably with that champion, and you should be at 75-100+ games at that point.

Just a guess, not sure though.

devante gomez1 votes

hiemer is a champ that higher elo players know to counter, so h=as a hiemer main wins games and gets higher, he will be beaten more and more often until his win rate, is at that 40 something percent that rito says it is.

ValyrianBlade1 votes

I think the reason is that at low-medium elo those champions aren't seen often. So a player can be good enough to be gold on Champion X and thus kill it with a huge win rate in silver. Then in gold he still climbs because most gold players don't see the champion enough to play against it properly. So even though he's only gold caliber he can get through gold with a high win rate (this would be the 75-100 games group). Then once they've cleared gold and gotten to platinum, not only are they against players that are better than them (decision-making and mechanically) but also the enemy knows how to deal with your odd champion pick. So suddenly these players are losing a lot of games on that champion in the 125+ games group. Even if the plat player doesn't know how to deal with the odd pick, they at least know how to not feed it and then can outplay you in the late game. I.e. playing off-meta yet strong picks may help you climb, but you're not getting better as a player - you're climbing because you're cheesing your opponent and that will stop working eventually.

An alternative may be that certain champion's player bases get too arrogant. I.e. a 75-100 games Heimer may have already neared the skill cap on the champion and yet is willing to admit their part in losing games (and thus continue to improve as a player, have better teamwork, etc...). A 125+ games Heimer may be so cocky that he can do no wrong and is perfect on his champion that he rages at allies whenever his team falls behind and makes his team lose that way. The two players are equally good on the champion because of a relatively low skill cap, yet the one who's played it more has a worse attitude because he thinks he's "mastered" it and if he isn't winning blames it on his team and gives up or voices it.

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