Why is it that when I'm on a hot streak my teams get progressively worse?

Ramen226··67 votes·4,085 views

This isn't a QQ post about muh teams doh.

When I lose a promo, i try to take about 15 minutes to review where the team went wrong what I could have done better in lane and how much better would I have to play/ or what I would have had to do to win the game. I usually start these by comparing the win rates of the members of our teams and this is what gets me fucked up.

Every lose I get in promos my team has a significantly worse win ratio than their team. For an example I'll use the stats of my last 2 games, both loses.I'm a top lane main so the rates will go like a scoreboard is organized from top down. (for the second game i added in the mmr of each player, i would've done it for the first game but i didnt think about it and it takes too long to load. The * means that too many duo games were played and the rating is probably inaccurate.)

1st game Me 55% vs 65% Jg 35% vs 47% (their worst player) Mid 40% vs 55% Adc 53% vs 60% Sup 35% vs 60%

2nd game Me 55% (1395) vs 53% (1452) Jg 45% (1383) vs 70% (1387) Mid 70% (1403) vs 65% (1414) Adc 45% (1355****) vs 54% (1450) Sup 30% (1355*) vs 50% (1370)

I find it kinda wonky that 90% of the opponents I faced had win-rate of 50% or greater where when it comes to allies it was only 25%. Not to mention that the mmr of the players in game 2 were higher than everyone on our teams. Now win ratio isn't necessarily indicative of who is going to win, but it's an important enough stat to be taken into consideration when drafting teams. I understand that these teams are inevitable and with hundreds of thousands of games played a day shit like this is gonna happen, but it happens a little too often during important games to be acceptable.

Edit: For those saying that it's not a large sample size, understand I do this with every loss I feel i couldn't have prevented to see if it really was my team under performing or it's confirmation bias. I also do this with wins that feel we couldn't have thrown if we tried to see if their team was significantly worse. SO when I show you 2 games you have to realize that I do this all the time and it's the same story (almost) every game. I'm only showing 2 because I don't have the rest of the stats on record and I'd rather not make stuff up to try and get my point across

Edit 2: I see a lot of people are saying, "Well if you win your mmr goes up and you place against tougher opponents." You're ignoring the whole point of the post. I said why do my team mates get worse, not why my opponents get tougher. If i were getting put in matches with higher skilled people across the board I'd understand but that's not what's happening. When in my promos to silver 1 i should be playing against people in that division WITH people from that division. But instead the people on my team are worse than the division I'm trying to get into and my opponents are BETTER than the division im trying to get into. Saying that winning increases my mmr so i should get worse teams doesn't make sense. Especially because i clearly don't belong in the division I'm in if I'm constantly going on large win or lose streaks. (if its true that my teams get worse as my mmr increases)

66 Comments

koshkyra20 votes

This.

I had a 5-game win streak in ranked this week

6th game: every lane besides mine lost a little bit, we ended up losing the game (oh and they fed the jungler like crazy lul)

7th game: toplaner gave up first blood before minions even spawned (it wasnt even to an invade, he was trying to 1v1 a mundo as jayce, wtf?), team fed 10 kills before the 8 minute mark, i was the only lane doing good until they decided to feed my ahri 3 kills after i gave them an mia like 20 seconds in advance and even said to them "guys gtfo bot ahri is def coming"

What elo do i get competent teams in?

RaptureRage4 votes

thats the problem since season 7. Lose streaks follows win streak follows lose streak.

Win streak = fair matches, nearly same win streaks, same mmr

Lose streak= enemie has at least 3 Level 7 Mastery mains, picks good champs. My team has the worst winrate ever, picks champions they nearly never play and we lose hard all the time. It feels like im the only one playing his main in a lose streak.

Don't forget the classic Silver 1 Level 0 Mastery Garen, vs the Plat 4 Fiora main. Even the attitude is completely different in my team when i'm on a losing streak.

And it's ALWAYS like that. ALWAYS. without exception. I have never been that hardstuck in a elo before season 7

RaptureRage3 votes

look again: now im on a lose streak again :

-enemie level 7 nasus main vs level 0 mastery malz top lane. Nasus has 700 Stacks after 28 minutes and does 1vs9

  • we have autofill support who picks blitzcrank in a level 7 mastery morgana support main

this will go on the next games too, i wil tell you.

aspects11 votes

jayce does beat mundo 1v1 tho unless mundo took e, which i doubt

scribbles7828 votes

TL;DR... But what I think happens is if you go on a win streak Rito puts you with the sucky players so you can carry them... but idk, it's a dumb system.

General Esdeath 8 votes

Something about proving you're good enough to belong in the next rank.

Barcid15 votes

Pretty sure he's just trying out for the rank one point above, not fucking challenger. Having to "prove yourself" by single-handedly carrying what is likely a doomed team in order to go from Gold 3 to Gold 2 doesn't really seem like a justifiable test.

Ramen2267 votes

Angus agrees with my point. Pretty sure he was being sarcastic like

"Meh riot says it has something to do with proving yourself or something like that."

SnakDatSmilesBak1 votes

not only once, but several times

General Esdeath 1 votes

I didn't say I agree with it, that's just what Riot's said in the past.

Bronze Demon1 votes

{quoted}

Something about proving you're good enough to belong in the next rank.

this only works if all roles has the same capacity to win gamesand are not interdepedent. your team is only as good as your strongest link, forcing you to play with bad players just makes you lose for the sake of keeping 50% WR. dumb system.

Raiyza1 votes

While thats what the system is SUPPOSED to do, there is a fine line where "proving" yourself is just impossible.

A gold 5 player like myself will NOT win against a Diamond 2, unless the rest of the D2 player's team is below our own skill levels (Which doesn't often happen at all).

Riot needs to tone it back. Right now it is insanely dumb to try and climb because of the horrible pairings going on.

RlP K0BE7 votes

Idk if this counts but when my 9 game winning streak ended i went on a 10 game losing streak right after. Sure I should learn when to stop playing when losing but there is no doubt in my mind that my teams during the losing streak weren't even comparable to the teams i got on my winning streak

LXII1 votes

Stopping doesn't help. I tried playing only 2 games a day after a giant win streak a month back. I lost (almost)every game for like 3 weeks straight. My record over that course was like 3-17. Played a ton over 2 days following that. Went like 18-2.

Now I'm losing again.

jwebb01133 votes

well lets see

your team mmr by role and total win % in rank / actual rank top 1395 s2 52% win rate in rank (silver rank ) jng 1308 s3 46% win rate in rank (silver rank ) mid 1392 s2 48% win rate in rank ( gold rank ) adc 1317 s3 51% win rate in rank (silver rank) sup 1403 s2 50% win rate in rank (gold rank)

enemy team top 1446 s1 45% win rate in rank (silver rank) jng 1381 s2 48% win rate in rank (silver rank) mid 1446 s1 45% win rate in rank (silver rank) adc 1431 s2 54% win rate in rank (silver rank) sup 1431 s2 52% win rate in rank (silver rank)

so lets see your teams average mmr 1363 but have two gold rank players and over all average win % in rank is 49.4% enemy team average mmr 1427 but all silver rank players average win % i rank is 48.8%

so your team last game had a lower mmr currently but two higher ranked players and a .6% difference in win % overall in rank

seems kinda balanced to me

Ramen2265 votes

In game 2 my teams average winrate was 49% vs their 58.8%. In game 2 my teams average mmr was 1378.2 vs their 1414.6.

A common thread I've noticed is when I point out how unfair team comps are in normals and use rank as a barometer people say rank doesn't matter mmr does. But when I contrast our teams mmr and winrates people try and use rank. I'm not trying to single you out but the numbers say the teams aren't even. Fairly close in mmr if you only take into account numbers, but when you take into account that jax's mmr was significantly below what he was playing like and that 2 of my team mates had inaccurate mmr's because of too many duo games it becomes blatantly obvious that I was given a handicap. (whether intentionally or not)

jwebb01132 votes

you are looking at current ( over last 20) games i looked at over all win % in rank for the season and their mmr at the time of the game and current rank

as you can see in the game u played j4 your team had 64 lower mmr , while having two over all higher ranked players and a .6% difference in over all win rate in rank

that is as balanced as it can get. its not perfect but come on.. what do you want all of the players in that game have similar skill over all there is no way every game every one is gonna all be 1300 mmr in all 10 players it just dont work like that. and even if it did its no indication to what team would win. individual play varies game by game by player.

mmr is a # that changes from game to game

and as your statement of 1378 vs 1414 that is a difference of 36 mmr we are talking 1 win maybe 2 difference over all between the averages

its not like you are 1300 playing vs 1800 mmr teams , that would be unfair match making

Hellioning2 votes

A sample size of 2 is not much of a sample size.

dominusx2 votes

Because that's how riot implements the hardstuck grind way of playing. You only climb abusing some meta and hoping you wont get fucked by matchmaking . 0 skill expression in any form in this game for years.

Starcraft243ver2 votes

Did you just made statistics with this impressive sample rate of 2 games ? Sounds amazing.

As someone who climbed quite a lot of accounts (got 4 myself, and in the past I played a bit for some friend <sorry>), I had a lot of winstreak obviously, and I didnt notice anything like this.

I think it's just a cognitive bias :

  • If you get a bad team when you are on losestreak : you'll be like "omg people suxx :'(, how am I playing with these monkeys, i'm so much better than them.

  • If you alternate bad and good teams you are like "demn, I lose one game out of 2 and I can't do anything about it, I wish I only had good teams".

  • If you have had a bunch of good teams, you are like "my god I'm so good these days", and you get used to these good teams quite fast. Fataly at some point the dream ends (by the sole mecanics of "statistics"), and you get back to point A or B. But then you are like "Omg RIOT tries to prevent me from climbing".

So unless you provides us a representative sample of games (500 will be enough), in which you notice the average winrate of your teammates, notice the number of time you won as underdog, number of time you lost as favored, i'm sorry but i'll have to call bullshit on your claims.

Ramen2261 votes

I can try to do a larger scale test for future games. The problem is that its hard to do because what qualifies as a hot streak? Dictionary terms would tell us that a hot streak is on a 3 game win streak. But one could also say that having a winning 7 of the last 10 games counts. It'd be messy on just my own and i would have to do a study of hundreds if not thousands of players.

This also isn't my first post on the subject. I've made a couple others highlighting that when I go one win streaks the other team gets significantly better, higher ranked, mmr, winrate players.

Starcraft243ver1 votes

The riot game api allows you to study thousands of games quite easily :)

Ramen2261 votes

What is that and how can i use it.

I was just using op.gg but if there is a better site to use then i'd gladly do so.

Starcraft243ver1 votes

https://developer.riotgames.com/

You'll find everything you need in there.

Ramen2261 votes

Yes but what is it?

aspects12 votes

regardless if you just say your not complaining about your teams, thats literally what your doing if your good you will climb, and a few losses shouldnt really mean anything

Ramen2261 votes

Complaining about teams =/= pointing out flaws in the matchmaking system Complaining about teams would just be wildly shit talking the people I get in my promos.

I don't blame the players for being bad, I blame the system for putting the clearly worse players on my team just because I'm on a winning streak.

Oh and saying "if you're good you will climb a few losses shouldn't really mean anything."

I have been climbing, way too slowly and way too long because STATISTICS are showing that the players that I get in promos are worse than the players the other team has. Actual cold hard numbers, not feelings or opinions.

aspects11 votes

so what? why do you care if you get worse players? the point of that is to make sure that people who get promoted actually deserve their promotion and as i said previously, its prob just bad luck, and if your good it wont make a difference people will point out every flaw in a system that works against them, but never when it works for them im sure youve seen many many posts on boards where people complain about their teams and matchmaking, but have you ever seen a post where someone says "I looked up the stats for my team and they are all way better than the enemy team and i wanted to thank matchmaking for carrying me"? i didnt think so

Ramen2261 votes

"So what if you get worse teams?" With this solid and outstanding line of reasoning I wonder how the league community disputes about anything.

Oh and yeah, I've gotten a better team than theirs twice from the last 30 games. But in my past 5 games every other turret was down by 19 minutes. Only one of which I can honestly say I could've played way better, but during my review both my other lanes AND my jungler lost with 0 pressure from the jungler, where I can say that my mistakes came from not being able to avoid a gank vs new xin.

So yeah I've gotten a better team about 1 out of every 15 games, and in the last 20 games have gotten 6 games where my team was the primary cause for the loss.

aspects11 votes

why do you believe your teams were worse? is it simply because they performed worse? even if you look them up and the enemy team has better players rank wise, maybe they are on a losing streak so they will be considered worse and let me point one thing out there is only one factor that remains constant in every game, and thats you you cant blame your team every single time

Ramen2261 votes

No where in this entire post did I elude to blaming my team every single time. And the soundbite with "there only one factor between every game and thats you," is way out of date. You haven't brought anything new to the discussion especially when I'm telling you that when I do reviews of my games, the losses are constantly due to the enemy team having a higher quality team than mine. That's not even blaming my teams for getting dumpstered, thats pointing out a flaw in the matchmaking system for not drafting teams properly.

I don't blame any player for being bad or under performing, I blame the system for not putting them with teams that they'll perform at an average level.

ONCE AGAIN: blaming the system for drafting poor teams =/= blaming my teams for under performing.

Ramen2261 votes

And I believe my teams are worse because based on recent match history because they've been "underperforming" for a while.

And I like how I can show that the players on the other team are on a semi hot streak but the teams on my team are on a hard lose streaks but you completely ignore it.

aspects11 votes

your pretty much saying im mad that im bad and cant climb, so im gonna blame riot and matchmaking instead of actually trying to get better gl bro your gonna need it

Ramen2261 votes

Outstanding strawman argument

I provide a 2 cases where matchmaking drafted uneven teams and you can't defend it. So instead of just admitting that matchmaking is screwed up at least in this case OR developing a coherent argument you claim my argument is simply

im mad that im bad and cant climb, so im gonna blame riot and matchmaking instead of actually trying to get better

Ya know I think that you're pretty much saying you have a small penis, low iq, and that you're bronze 5 so that you don't actually know what you're talking about anyways./

You never said anything that even came CLOSE to saying any of that but I can say "you basically said x so obs its true"

Instead of addressing the actual point you hide behind your fallacious arguments like a friggin child. You have nothing to add to the argument/

aspects11 votes

if you dont listen to my points, theres no reason to arguing with you you deserve it

Ramen2261 votes

Obvious trol is obvious now

aspects11 votes

your opinion is invalid

Cloudah1 votes

Probably because if you win more you raise your MMR therefore you are placed against higher MMR opponents?

CrisisEchoes1 votes

Lets look at what happens to your mmr when you start going on winstreaks. Your mmr starts moving higher faster. To the point that 1 win 1 lost its movving up and down by 20 points. 6 wins in a row, it goes up 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45. (its not linear by any means and this is a bit faster than it actually goes, but it gets the picture across)

This makes it so you play against higher skill leveled players earlier during winstreaks. It seems like your teams are bad, but you are just not carrying hard enough anymore due to the players around you being better than you. This causes you to go on loss streaks until it normalizes to where you belong.

that is one part of it.

The other part of it is sometimes matchmaking doesnt shoot the most even games at you. This coupled with the fact that your mmr is bloated during winstreaks leads to an incredibly one sided game, that is almost guarenteed to happen sometime in the future unless youre challenger skill level already.

Either this or riot is sabotaging you. you decide =S

Raiyza1 votes

It's not sabotage, it's just a really dumb way of doing it.

Matchmaking should place players against players that are purely the same skill level. That way, whoever is slightly better will win the match.

It is overwhelmingly not fair to be in promos and go up against a diamond 2 player as a gold 5. it's utter bullshit. That is what needs to stop. If Riot really wants players to carry themselves out of a division, then players need to show that they are better, rather than being carried by the diamond player on the team.

CrisisEchoes1 votes

That isnt possible. There is no situation in a ranked game when a diamond 2 will be against a gold. I can guarentee that. Plat 2 is possible, albiet highly unlikely. I didnt even face diamonds in my plat 5

Raiyza1 votes

I call bullshit.

It's even in my normals.

Even if a diamond matchup wasn't possible, being paired with low silvers aginst high gold/lowplat is still awful.

CrisisEchoes2 votes

ive never faced a diamond 2 in a ranked game and im plat 3 =S. Normals are a different story.

L3gba1 votes

It happens in normals because the mmr for ranked isn't the mmr they use for normals. If a challenger ranked player that hasn't played any norms starts playing norms they will be placed with people way below the challenger skill level because the person has low mmr for normals.

DuskDaUmbreon1 votes

It's partly because your MMR surpasses your skill, relates to their win streaks and loss streaks, and a lot of other factors.

If you're on a winning streak, they tend to pair you with people on a losing streak, and visa versa. This is to check if you actually deserve that promotion/demotion. It's to see if you just had shit/amazing luck with teammates, or you're actually good/bad. If you just had bad teammates, being put with a teammate on a winning streak should mean that you'll win. If you were just lucky, being put with losing ones will do the opposite.

This also affects your mental state. If you're losing, you'll feel more and more shit, and you'll start playing worse, getting stuck in a defeatist attitude. You'll end up doing worse and worse, and each failure makes you do worse. Riot intentionally tries to break this, by essentially "giving" a player on a bad streak a win once in a while.

GirlBrains1 votes

Riot does infact incorporate a system they dont tell you about which evaluates players on performance beyond win/loss ratio. (Gpm = gold per minute). Riot is deeply afraid of losing its playerbase so they actively add new mechanisms to bring players closer to a 50% win ratio so they play more games. Which is why if you had a game where you went 30/0 your next game you will probably be matched with horse shit for teammates

Leonerdo1 votes

Why is it that when I'm on a hot streak my teams get progressively worse?

Because your MMR goes up when you win, and thus you are matched against harder opponents.

win rates

Currently, win rates are not needed or used by matchmaker. They are only tangentially relevant, in that people with an overall high win-rate have climbed in skill/MMR some time in the past (maybe recently, maybe not).

Now win ratio isn't necessarily indicative of who is going to win, but it's an important enough stat to be taken into consideration when drafting teams.

Isn't this exactly what people want less of? Where you get much tougher matches any time you go on a win streak?

I mean, personally, I think win-rate could be a decent indicator for fast-climbing individuals, as long as MMR remains the primary factor. That is, anyone on a win streak could get slightly tougher matches, and (as it currently works) they would receive more MMR for winning those tough matches. But on the other hand, win streaks are very important for getting through promos, which is already a big point of pain. So overall, I think it's better to just leave win-rate out of the conversation.

EasternBladeStar1 votes

Riot has progressively nerfed snowballing (read: solo-carrying) in League, alongside changing matchmaking algorithm changes.

Why?

Because the game has to feel "fair" for every player. Fair in this case means that the worst player in each team will feel all the bit better about himself at the post-game lobby screen.

Ramen2263 votes

Why not just make the teams even from the start so that each team has a roughly even chance of winning

YeAh RiOt Is RiGhT aBoUt EvErYtHiNg AnD wE sHoUlD nEvEr QuEsTiOn ThEiR dEsCiSiOn MaKiNg

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