Predicting Xin Zhao's win rate after the 7.24 nerfs
Context
So in patch 6.11, Xin's base HP was 591, and his HP per level was 87. His win rate then was 44%.
Then he got buffed in patch 6.12. His HP got buffed to 600 HP and his HP per level got buffed to 92 HP per level, giving him an extra 9-94 total HP over the course of the game. Xin Zhao's an either-or champion when it comes to HP, either he has enough HP and survives long enough to kill his target, or he doesn't and just dies trying over and over again. Thus, that small HP buff raised his win rate by 5% from 44% to 49%, around which he stayed for the remainder of season 6, and most of Season 7 until his rework in patch 7.19.
After his rework, he had a 51% win rate, which has slowly increased to its current 53% as the meta shifted to favor his new kit. His base stats were not touched except for his attack speed (which got nerfed). He currently has base 600 HP in live.
The 7.24 nerfs currently testing in the PBE
First, they are nerfing his base HP to 550 but keeping his 92 HP per level.
That means that from his original 591 HP in patch 6.11, Xin now actually has 41 less HP at level 1, and only 44 more HP at level 18. That's basically the same as reverting his patch 6.12 buff.
Thus, his winrate is probably going to go down by the original 5% that the patch 6.12 buff gave him. From 53%, it's going to drop to around 48%.
Second, they are also nerfing his W Thrust damage from 85% to 75% AD ratio.
This one is very minor, and will at most drop his win rate by 1%. From 48% to 47%
TL;DR: The 7.24 nerfs are going to drop his winrate from 53% to 47%. In other words, Xin Zhao will probably be trash again after patch 7.24 hits.
