Intresting numbers when looking at the winrate of champions while they're on the free rotation

Best Kog NA··1 votes·556 views

So I've been collecting stats on a champion's WinRate during the free rotation, and I've found that while most champions lose some WinRate during the rotation some champions actually have an increase in their WinRate. For example,

Morgana went up a total of .34% Skarner went up a total of .46% Galio went up a total of .66%

These increases in WinRates usually are around .5% or less with a few going up to .75% increase. For comparison here's some of the champions that were also on the free rotation that week whose WinRate went down,

KogMaw went down 2.35% Maokai went down 4%

That's around the average. These all can be explained with some outliers, not big enough sample size, or just simple sampling error, but what I've really found interesting is Janna's WinRate during this same rotation. Her WinRate each day except for the first was higher than the day before she went on the rotation with an ending ▲WinRate of up 1%. This is a higher ▲WinRate change than any other champion on the rotation by .25%. I feel like sampleing error can't explain that big of an increase. Also her Playrate skyrocketed on day three from 8.48% to 22.56%. Effects of that jump were still being seen untill the end of the free rotation. None of the other champions saw a pattern like this. I was just wondering if anyone here knows of any explanation for Janna's sudden spike in WinRate / PlayRate on that day? (Free rotation cycle I'm talking about is the one from Oct. 4th to Oct. 11th)

7 Comments

ValyrianBlade2 votes

Where are you getting stats? Most places only track win rates in ranked since normal matchmaking is garbage. Free rotation champions are only available in normals, aren't they?

Best Kog NA1 votes

Yea. I'm using lolking's normal game data

Nameless Voice2 votes

Oh, I thought you were saying that there was a correlation between free rotation (available in normals) and win rate in ranked - which would have been somewhat strange.

Best Kog NA1 votes

That would be strange, I'm just doing this to see if I can find any statistical backing behind which champions are the most "No skill champions"

Maximus Paine2 votes

Seems like an interesting thing to look at. However, it could be difficult to establish that the reason we think win rate increased or decreased is actually correct. There may be different factors influencing the stats. You know, correlation does not imply causation. We'd have to do additional tests. For example, a champion may seem attractive to people that are coincidentally less skilled, or more skilled, or less skilled people may like a champion because they think it's easy to use, or let's say girls or guys are less skilled and they play the champion because it's cute or a rugged type :-) ... You know, different reasons other than the champion is actually easy.

Best Kog NA1 votes

That's why I'm just using the free rotation period as a way to insure that for a week, a champions playrate is going to go up because people are testing them out. So from there I can figure out how many new people actually played the champion and assuming the mains still played their own champion the same amount I can find the sub WinRate for just the people who are new at the champion.

Maximus Paine2 votes

The cases where win rate goes up are the most interesting (unexpected), but we'd have to see if the increase is statistically significant - more than usual weekly variations. The rate going down is what is expected if we believe the increase in play rate will be due mostly to people trying the champ for free, and if they're trying it/don't own it they are expected to not be that good at it than people who use it often.

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