Annnnnnnd this is why Pick'em should be done round-by-round in Knockout Stage.

DarkSoul1994·Oct 19, 2017·2 votes·718 views

My picks were based off LZ making it to Grand Final. Now half of my picks are blank.

12 Comments

GeminiRuneOct 19, 20172 votes

You would expect the millions who compete in Pickem to check back in day by day, especially for quarterfinals? And yet we still had perfect pickems in the past despite upsets...

Meep ManOct 19, 20172 votes

It's not supposed to be something many people get right.

Gen NakazoraOct 19, 20172 votes

Its not how it works though. It is a free contest that could be thrown off by anything. You have 7 rounds to guess, each with (in theory) 50% chance. Obviously it isn't actually 50%, but lets just go with that for the moment. 1 in 2 chance. That still means getting all of them right is a 1 in 128 chance, less than a 1% chance. And that is giving each team that fair 50%. As I said, obviously it isn't 50%. Teams like LZ and SKT have (or had in LZ's case) much higher chances. And that is supposed to be the point. These sorts of things aren't meant for you to get them right. If they were easy there would be no prize at all. People can say the $120 prize in skins is 'too little,' but unlike some drafts, this is a free contest. It is still designed so people are not supposed to win though.

MysterQOct 19, 20171 votes

There are plenty of free drafts in other sports, that offer MILLIONS in prizes. Of course an insane prize to the impossible perfect, but also prizes to the top 16 and such.

Gen NakazoraOct 19, 20171 votes

Alright, here is my counter-argument to that, cause that is a valid point. What organizations are hosting those free drafts? I'd imagine organizations that have the money to do such things. Riot may be a big name now, but they still aren't as financially successful as a lot of these organizations that do offer millions in their drafts - likely because they have many more years of success, more coverage and sponsorships, and a bigger audience.

MysterQOct 19, 20171 votes

No doubt. Although, some of these organizations are completely new and have only recently started growing due to their financial model attracting people. And there are still plenty of free entries that also give large prizes.

I am not asking for millions in prizes. I said 1 skin to the top 16. Not even a new skin (although that would be cool). I may not even be top16, I certainly am not right now. But it would give people more to play for, more to watch for, more reason to care for a Korean esports final. $10skinx16 = $160, that will not break Riot's bank. Even if 1000 people won the "grand prize" (impossible), that is 12,000. A lot of money no doubt... not even 0.0026% of (part of the) profit from Championship Ashe.

It is laughable that all these people are calling this a big prize. And again, I am not asking for a bigger prize. I would be ecstatic to win the 4 ultimate skins. But ask ANYONE and it is reasonable to say no one is going to create a perfect draft. It isn't a real prize because Riot isn't taking any risk on. They should just give guaranteed smaller prizes to people.

Gen NakazoraOct 19, 20172 votes

I do not disagree with you there. They could do more and still not have much financial backlash. Even offering the full prize to the top 16 (I'd probably still set a cutoff in terms of points though, just in case. Can't make it TOO easy : D That is not as fun.) would be quite easy for them. And I'm sure a lot more people would be excited to jump on that chance. I personally enjoy the gamble of it all, but can't actually gamble anything on it anyway (kinda live in a state that doing so is highly illegal in. hahaha). I know I would never win, and I picked in a way that if I even get 2 correct I will laugh my ass off. But it is all about the joy of seeing how good or bad your predictions were, and something anyone can enjoy.

MysterQOct 30, 20171 votes

Even if it is only 1(2) mistakes, then it would be much more possible. 1mistake has obviously proven to be very hard. I only said 2 because I am greedy. And getting one pick wron gin group stages (3rd/4th) makes at least 2 wrong.

notice me Sin piOct 19, 20171 votes

i also expected LZ to actually be the one to crap on SKT but i was wrong. But i also understand that Riot would give out $120 prize to anyone who guesses all correctly because they intended it to be statistically impossible.

MysterQOct 19, 20171 votes

Also, I did the math.

If one person wins this GRAND PRIZE. it is only 0.000015% of a new NA LCS upfront fee (8million). If they gave this prize away to 30 people every day, it would take OVER 6 YEARS to match the LCS upfront team signing fee.

Douglas FunnieOct 19, 20171 votes

Nope. You guessed wrong. Got to accept defeat.

GimonfuOct 21, 20171 votes

The first Pick'em or so WAS round by round if i remember correctly... Which I would also prefer... not gonna get my 2nd Poro icon this year it seems.....sniff